Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

[Orphan]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Great wall of text

Interesting post, and makes for an interesting read, though there's something to be said about holding your cards. I just want to touch on the lynch vs no lynch part though. Yes, there's always the chance of voting off a mafia but if we vote off a townie then we're helping the mafia. Let's look at the following examples:

No Lynch = Mafia 1 step closer to victory by killing someone at night
Lynch a townie = Mafia 2 steps closer to victory by killing someone at night
Lynch a Mafia = Townies 1 step closer to victory.

In order for the townies to win we need townies to remain alive. If the votes are random then we have a greater chance of voting off a townie then a mafia, which means 1 less night the Mafia need to win. Personally, I'd rather a no lynch if I don't know with a relatively high degree of confidence that I was voting for a mafia.

That said, I don't think that's an issue here for me anyway, since I have a few suspicions on some people anyway.

Orphan's only posted once this game, too.

Aye, I cannot access this board from home at the moment so I can only check during work until that's resolved. When I went to bed last night this was only 1 page long

Thyiad and Aman are both mods. They're names are green. What's the opposite of green?

I had initially thought something about that too (2 mods being targeted), but I'm not familiar with the FBI role and I gather that they appear to work independently of the mafia which means that it could just be a co-incidence.


Some thoughts though:
- I'm very wary of people who are in the spotlight offering great advice/analysis of people activites as I expect these people to be killed at night relatively early, unless of course they're mafia themselves. In other words, if someone is being really helpful and intelligent, and are somehow surviving each night, then they're on my list.
- At the moment, my suspicions lie with the SP crowd, which unfortunately doesn't take many people out.
- Serdash's single post with a random vote and no content bothers me. He's also from the SP forum which ties in with my above thought.


Vote: Serdash

 

[Soylentred]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

In any case, since she's been lingering around the top of my suspicious list for some time and based on what she's posted I'd suspect her more than the current leader...

Vote: Soylentred

wow all I can say is- I have gone around and around on this. If the town lynches me and my role is revealed, I won't be able to speak but I will be reading for an acknowledgement of how wrong you were on this one.
Sitro and Zhao I would like to see that from you - of course if you are mafia you won't do it and I hope suspicion then swings your way.
Not sure why I am suspected just because I did post as opposed to others who did not.
The interpretation by the people who have used my own posts to justify this is wrong and suspicious. How do I know they are wrong - because they have stacked the facts and gotten the wrong answer.
I am going to re-read the posts - obviously for some reason you will not vote against Bob so maybe there is someone else that you can vote for and I will switch my vote if I think it worthwhile.

 

[Noammr]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Bloody hell, you go to sleep happy and unsuspecting and you wake up to to...well, this.
I don't have as much time as I'd like to go over the posts but I'll do my best to address the matters I see as most important:

I find Zhao's crusade against Soy lacking in cause and his enthusiasm on pursuing the matter suspicious. Playing hard and fast is one thing, but going all out on someone like he did needs better reasoning behind it then what is found in his posts which include too much deliberate misinterpretation of other people's posts to my liking. Myabe this is all your game style Zhao, but it smells like mafia to me.
I'm less inclined to vote bob after reading his last post, but I dislike the way he threw around suspicions based on 'vibes' he got.

I had initially thought something about that too (2 mods being targeted), but I'm not familiar with the FBI role and I gather that they appear to work independently of the mafia which means that it could just be a co-incidence.

Nothing supports this either way, the 'fbi agent' could very well be a mafia power role.

As I said, I don't believe Soy is mafia and I'd not vote Zhao unless I'm more sure of his aligment so at this point I'll be going with the person who has the worst 'contributes/suspicios behaivior' ratio which is Serdash.
Vote: Serdash

I'm sure there's plenty of other tasty posts I've failed to mention, I'll have to read through recent developments when I get back from work...hope you won't lynch any townies till then.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

First off, Sitro, I'm honored to be leading your Chocobo Table of Penn and Teller points. However, you seem to grade me with pretty funky reasoning. I wonder why since I've played every game the way I'm playing now, a little reckless and without a worry in the world, and this is the first time it's bothering you. Perhaps my logic in the previous games intimidates you somehow this time around? Let's get to it:

This post doesn't sit right with me at all. The first part of it sounds like you're trying to establish some control over how the cop acts. And I can't think of any player who would have more benefit to that than a mafioso trying ward the cop off him and his buddies.
The second part of the post is odd as well. No reason to go poking anyone? There's a dead Thyiad been found this morning! Also possibly waiting to bandwagon with a random vote even though the anti-town implications of that are known.

1 MP for the odd first half of the post, 1 MP for the voting strategy.

Total lack of attention here? At the state of the game when I had posted that, we were still arguing over which side the imprisoner belongs to. Ergo, I figured that if Aman was investigated, it might've shed some light on it. You knew this, and still gave me Winnie The Pooh point of happiness for it?

My "random voting tactic" turned out to be a vote on the inactive member of the game, who is clearly the most hurting for the town to carry around. A well deserved Royalty Badge of Honor there for me.

To summarise, lynching someone today gets us closer to our goal of lynching all mafia than choosing not to lynch someone. Maths fail = MP.

You totally skipped the bit where I said it's totally unique to each game and that it's impossible to know if a no-lynch was the right call until the game is over, didn't you? Like it was later on addressed, a no-lynch beats killing a townie, which just happens to have the greater odds of happening early on. However, as you can see, I'm actually voting for someone, so I'm not going for a no-lynch, am I? Score, 1 more Care Bear point of Joy for me.

You would have us wait and waste our time rather than take a more risky chance that could actually win the game for the town. MP.

You actually gave me 2 points for the same cause under 2 different sentences. /golfclap

I appreciate the amount of your effort, but if all of your reasoning is as solid as these, based on your misinteprating(sp?) of people's postings, I don't see it doing much good to us.

That being said, I don't believe you're a member of the mafia. You're way too active and way too eager to accuse people to be a mobster. My vote on Bob remains unless he makes a sudden twist in his activity.

(Damn, that turned out longer than what I'm used to. )

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

As Bob posted once, I'm a little unsure whether to keep my vote on him or not. Would you (Bob) care to elaborate on your absence, will you stay on the tail end of the activity list in the future or can we expect you to participate more in the coming days? Wouldn't want to lynch someone based on inactivity if in truth they are just being screwed over by rl.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Since I'm at work and terribly bored (Monday morning, people cba turning computers on -> no IT-help needed :wink: ) and you all seem to be asleep or something, I decided to share my notes so far in hopes of bringing up more discussion. It seems like all the discussion at the moment is revolving around the one and same thing, and that can't lead to anything useful. Perhaps this helps you take me more seriously, instead of the short posts. (SiTro! :laugh


Bare in mind that these are just my first impressions of people. But like we all know, first impressions are hard to shed off later on. (Sorry if the wording in the text is a bit messy at some points, I tried to rephrase it from a memo into a readable chunk of text)

Hey

A little on the quiet side, seems harmless to me though. No cuckoo-votes. Could be dodging the ball?

SiTro

Over the top analytical, rushing into assumptions without properly thinking things over. I don't see him as anti-town though.

Zhao_Yue

On a vendetta against Soylentred, perhaps knows something, or knows that someone else knows something? Suspicious and a tad bit spammy.

BobTheWarrior

Low on the activity, came back with a thorough post though. Could be stalking and observing? Hasn't explained his absence.

Serdash

Doesn't contribute much when he posts. I get a suspicious feeling.

ogogo on ice

Quiet, seemingly random votes and opinions. Laying low?

Ankeli

ITSA ME, MARIO!

friedbananazzzz

Hasn't posted that much, but didn't do so before either. Voted in a way that seemed very sensible to me (inactivity).

spigot

Questioning the monster-posters to some extent, and thus creating conversation. Can't think anything of his alignment yet.

Erwwwd

Solid reasoning behind his opinions, and albeit poking a bit against me of my posts, I don't hold it against him. Doesn't seem suspicious.

Nolecub

A few posts so far, said he'd wait for Bob's comeback. Where's Nole now?

aman

Can't say much of him.

MassiveSin

Clashing with Zhao_Yue about off-topic things. Him or Z_Y mafia? Not both.

Soylentred

Reminds me of a quote: "I have something to say; It's better to burn out than to fade away." Defends herself in a graceful manner against Zhao's repetitive accusations which are always the same, phrased differently. Can't do much else to clear her name, and did it in a respectively cool manner. Not a threat in my books.

Noammr

Thorough and believable.

Orphan

Low posts, claims rl it-problems to be behind it. Another person that shares my views about the analytical and aggressive people.

Jaago

Said something, yet nothing. I got the impression that he didn't want to get associated with Soylentred? This clashes with my impressions from Soylentred to some extent.

 

[friedbananazzzz]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

friedbananazzzz- other than needing three posts to vote for me, not much.

:laugh: Sorry.

Unvote: Bob

I'm still wary of the Soy/Zhao debate, but I can't decide who to vote for at this time, there's just not enough info to make a certain decision.

But since his absence seems to be a good enough reason, I'll vote for the one MIA:

Vote: Serdash

I won't be able to make it back before the end of day, I hope this doesn't backfire...

 

[Serdash]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

If you really want to know why I don't comment on your posts, SiTro, it's simply because they're far too long. I've taken to not really digging through posts, but rather scanning them and getting a good feel for it.

It's almost impossible for me to figure out how everyone's posts make me feel, because really it's the first day. If my suspicions were based on anything, I'd still vote for you because you're often more aggressive no matter when it is. Your posts are always full and have fingers pointing in all kinds of awkward places.

If you want to lynch me, sure, go ahead. Take down a townie and move on with life. But don't simply base your decisions on my lack of posts. I find mafia to be a fun thing, but I also feel it's much better to pick around with a lot less talking. Break down smaller and more specific reasons, don't write a 1700 word post on every person in the game. You could list a few people and some minor suspicions, then if people wish for more information on your reasons, post them.

Yes. I'm pulling a Thyiad. I'm essentially saying, TL;DR.

GG?

(My vote still stands.)

 

[BobTheWarrior]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

As Bob posted once, I'm a little unsure whether to keep my vote on him or not. Would you (Bob) care to elaborate on your absence, will you stay on the tail end of the activity list in the future or can we expect you to participate more in the coming days? Wouldn't want to lynch someone based on inactivity if in truth they are just being screwed over by rl.

I will likely be towards the bottom of the activity list for a few 'game' days. This early, there are still plenty of people to do the poking and proding to get conversations going. I'll be watching and will certainly post when I have an opinion woth sharing.

I had a busy weekend, and spent 2 full hours last night writing up my last post. I expect I'll spend a similar amount of time in the future as my schedule allows. My preferred method is not to opine on individual posts, but on the poster who made it, which requires time.

I'm hoping that my weekdays allow me a little more free time to write up some posts than my weekend did.

----------------

I'm less inclined to vote bob after reading his last post, but I dislike the way he threw around suspicions based on 'vibes' he got.

That's my style. Others are better at logic and finding small flaws in peoples posts to nitpick about and derive mafia reads. I generally look at the overall activity of someone and draw my conclusion from my interpretation of that person.

Not defending, just explaining. If you don't like to trust people that work on 'vibes', 'sokay by me.

-----------------
Regarding Serdash-

I said this in my last post, but he's gained more votes since then, so I want to say it again.

Lynching in the early game is dangerous for the townies from an odds standpoint. We are likely to hit a townie and he/she may have a power role. In my opinion, we should lynch someone who is acting suspicious and who we can gain some information from their death. Serdash does not fit this criteria, what will we learn upon his death? At best, it will be his role and that people didn't like that he didn't post. This doesn't give us a great start for tomorrow depending on the nk('s).

(Serdash posted as I was writing (Preview Post ftw!), and my opinion of his lynch doesn't change)

@Serdash - I'd like to see your opinions of others this game, hopefully before the end of the 'day' in case you get lynched.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Unvote: Bob

Fair enough Bob. I could switch over to vote for Nolecub for example based on the same inactivity setting, but as I don't see that gaining enough support with all this rampaging around Serdash and Zhao, I'll tag the one I find more suspicious of the two.

Vote: Zhao_Yue

 

[Serdash]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

\@Serdash - I'd like to see your opinions of others this game, hopefully before the end of the 'day' in case you get lynched.

As you wish.

Hey -- Hasn't said much aside from jumping in on a vote with Soy. Can't say much else.
SiTro -- Have already said what I could. Is also a princess.
Zhao_Yue -- Is Zhao. Should be lynched for the lulz, but otherwise shows no suspicious activity as of right now
BobTheWarrior -- Only a few posts, but mostly informative. Nothing suspicious IMO.
Serdash -- Is awesome.
ogogo on ice -- Few posts, nothing I can see out of line.
Ankeli -- Potential suspicion, but I have no hard evidence to back anything up. A "Meh" case at best.
friedbananazzzz -- Can't say, really.
spigot -- Same situation as Ankeli
Erwwwd -- Seems a bit aggressive in posting and... I won't necessarily say "finger pointing", but simply coming to conclusions. Suspicious, but not unnatural.
Nolecub -- MIA?
aman -- Dropping the soap in imprisonment.
MassiveSin -- Meh
Soylentred -- Meh
Noammr -- Same as Ankeli and spigot
Orphan -- Voted for me because I'm from SPF? Seemd odd. Won't accuse of anything suspicious, but can't say I believe is pro town either.
Jaago -- No real information. I assume he'll turn up before the day is over though.

 

[Soylentred]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Not sure what to do here.
I am about to enter the gulag that is a government appointment so I don't know if I will be back before day end. Hopefully I will arrive back stirred but not shaken.
I would like to change my vote but it is just starting to swing around.
Re-reading posts and votes.

 

[spigot]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Hmm, I'm sticking with my point of voting as a tool to create conversation, however I can see your point in trying not to lynch just for the sake of lynch; there's a lot of info out there now, it needs sifting through. We have about six hours left and I want to hear from nolecub. I am also going to do a thorough analysis of the voting patterns when I get home (about 5ish, should have an hour or so to check things out). For now, you've removed my reason for voting for you though Bob, so its:

unvote: Bob

 

[Serdash]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Also, I would like to note that getting a no-lynch is an awkward concept. Yes, we have a large chance of lynching a townie, thus lowering our chance to win, and the mafia generally has a guaranteed chance of improving their chances every night. If we wait on NKs to raise our chances or draw suspicion, it's probably going to make it bad on us.

Even in the bad scenario where we accidentally lynch a townie, and then have another townie murdered on the night, that increases our chances by... 7%? (Forgot how many people we have atm.) And that's per person. If we get two townies gone, that can really improve our chances to start hitting the right marks. It's like a game of battleship, almost.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Personally, I'd rather a no lynch if I don't know with a relatively high degree of confidence that I was voting for a mafia.

Agree. However the fact remains I'd also see a lynch today. An intelligent choice with reasoning behind it. So rather than resigning to a no-lynch the town needs to put some effort in, read through the posts of the day and find someone it believes to be mafia.

I'll push for a lynch every day in normal circumstances.
That doesn't mean it should be a random one - find reasoning to avoid that.

-----

SiTro -- Have already said what I could. Is also a princess.

I laughed.

-----

If the town lynches me and my role is revealed, I won't be able to speak but I will be reading for an acknowledgement of how wrong you were on this one.
Sitro and Zhao I would like to see that from you - of course if you are mafia you won't do it and I hope suspicion then swings your way.

Sorry, have I been bad?

Seriously. I'm not about to apologise for my actions when I'm doing what I believe is best for the town. At the moment you are one of my top candidates for mafia based on the information we have to go on today and so I'm voting for you. There's no error in doing that, there is a distinct lack of logical fail. I shouldn't have to apologise for playing the game. Maybe you should ask the inactives instead.

-----

Figured Ankeli would probably want more of a reply.

First off, Sitro, I'm honored to be leading your Chocobo Table of Penn and Teller points. However, you seem to grade me with pretty funky reasoning. ... Winnie The Pooh point of happiness ... Royalty Badge of Honor ... Care Bear point of Joy

You seem to have taken issue with the points scoring system I'm using. Interesting. What's possibly more interesting is the manner in which you're doing so. If you want to criticise it then a better approach might have been to point out a serious flaw in it and say that for that reason you don't think I should bother with it. Oh, and to give you a head start, no it can't pick out non-posting mafia, and the points are dished out by yours truly, but that's only a flaw if I wanted it to be an objective system for finding all mafia. Instead it's a subjective system for finding mafia in those who are posting.

Childish insults though... It's almost as if you wanted to attack the system itself but didn't quite know how to manage that. Here's a hint: Why not point out that even though you're leading the table at the moment, I still voted for Soylentred. Put me on the back foot and make me explain some of my actions maybe?

Perhaps the cop could investigate Aman for us? That way we'd get some clarification at least. As for my (random) vote, I'll hold it off for a little longer. No real reason to go poking anyone yet.

This post doesn't sit right with me at all. The first part of it sounds like you're trying to establish some control over how the cop acts. And I can't think of any player who would have more benefit to that than a mafioso trying ward the cop off him and his buddies.
The second part of the post is odd as well. No reason to go poking anyone? There's a dead Thyiad been found this morning! Also possibly waiting to bandwagon with a random vote even though the anti-town implications of that are known.

1 MP for the odd first half of the post, 1 MP for the voting strategy.

Total lack of attention here? At the state of the game when I had posted that, we were still arguing over which side the imprisoner belongs to. Ergo, I figured that if Aman was investigated, it might've shed some light on it. You knew this, and still gave me Winnie The Pooh point of happiness for it?

My "random voting tactic" turned out to be a vote on the inactive member of the game, who is clearly the most hurting for the town to carry around. A well deserved Royalty Badge of Honor there for me.

Total lack of attention here? I'd just explained in some detail why I found it hard to believe that the roleblocker was a pro-town role. I still don't believe it now. (Summary: I can't see how using the ability with no information is going to be a benefit to the town) Believe me I noticed these aspects about your gameplay last round as well and didn't call you out on them. Being dead puts a limit on how much you can actually say.

Clearly the most hurting members for the town to carry round are the mafia who are killing us off nightly. But GG to you for being lucky enough to randomly vote an inactive. Hang on, scratch that. GG to your dice.

To summarise, lynching someone today gets us closer to our goal of lynching all mafia than choosing not to lynch someone. Maths fail = MP.

You totally skipped the bit where I said it's totally unique to each game and that it's impossible to know if a no-lynch was the right call until the game is over, didn't you? Like it was later on addressed, a no-lynch beats killing a townie, which just happens to have the greater odds of happening early on. However, as you can see, I'm actually voting for someone, so I'm not going for a no-lynch, am I? Score, 1 more Care Bear point of Joy for me.

Hindsight is 20/20. I predict that after this game has finished I will be able to tell you each member of the mafia and who we should have lynched on each day to win the game the quickest.

But we're dealing with the present here so we have to improvise. I'm yet to be suitably convinced that it's ever in the best interest of the town not to lynch often in the early stages of the game. That includes the first day. Don't get me wrong, there are cases where a no-lynch is needed, normally in the endgame. Check the last few days of Aman's CF game and you'll see how a no-lynch was used to win the game for the townies. But I don't think it's appropriate here.

A no-lynch beats killing a townie, sure. But again, be careful not to justify your actions with their consequences. If you believe someone is a townie without a shadow of a doubt then obviously you don't want to see them lynched. So don't vote for them, suggest an alternative candidate and defend their townieship.

Oh and voting for someone isn't a defence for making anti-town comments.

You actually gave me 2 points for the same cause under 2 different sentences. /golfclap

I'll let someone with more experience than I answer this one. (No, not you Zhao. :neener:

Don't worry. Any MP's awarded are purely arbitrary and based on my opinion only.

He's awesome.

 

[Jaago]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Could we have a vote tally? I'm busy at school so I can't go around counting for them at the moment. (Yeah, I do feel like bandwagoning time is drawing near.)

 

[Nolecub]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Not MIA guys, just RL interfering.

Vote: Serdash

I do not get where the no-lynch is good for the town scenario is coming from. If we go with no-lynch today, what information does this give the town?

Nothing.

We would be unable to look at voting patterns to establish relationships, nor would we be able to out someone who is false role claiming. At least with a lynch, there is some information to go on. Maybe not a lot, but something is better than nothing.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Soy - 4
Bob - 4
Serdash - 3
SiTro - 1
Zhao_Yue - 1

Not entirely sure, just had a quick skim over the last 24 hours or so. These are certainly the main candidates though. Off to campus now, won't be able to post for a few hours.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

To SiTro: I'm done reasoning with you. You obviously have your mind set on haunting me, and you're welcome to do so. I already effectively proved all your points invalid, and yet you come back with more nonsense.

As for not voting for me, why won't you then if I am so suspicious to you?

 

[spigot]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Soy - 4
Bob - 4
Serdash - 3
SiTro - 1
Zhao_Yue - 1

Not entirely sure, just had a quick skim over the last 24 hours or so. These are certainly the main candidates though. Off to campus now, won't be able to post for a few hours.

My cote has been removed from Bob if you're counting mine, which would make it:

Soy - 4
Bob - 3
Serdash - 3
SiTro - 1
Zhao_Yue - 1

I'm tempted to go for Nolecub on the basis of your last post: no reasoning, nothing to explain why, and a load of repeated waffle. Please explain yourself.

vote: nolecub