Baldur's Gate Mafia Game

[Solar Ice]

Vote tally:

Moar (12): Laarz, Jason Maher, pharphis, Bad Ash, BipolarChemist, Goryani, kestegs, djmbbandie, Drixx, Ankeli, Pyrotechnician, Gwaihir
ThunderCat(1): coju
Valhauros (1): flubbucket

 

[Laarz]

ninja'd


As you say yourself, it is pure guess work, and not something we can use yet, hence the discussion isn't worth it. See my above post. I do agree that keeping an eye on it won't hurt though.



Pressing was a bad choice of words, as nothing is really pressing, since we don't have much to go on. As for what to discuss, I would much rather discuss the story further (admittedly, I myself haven't found much beyond what I already mentioned). I generally dislike twillights for this exact reason - even on a normal D1, town has pretty much nothing to go on. I see no reason to encourage more empty discussion to the game - however, time will show if this twillight turns out different.

As for now, I think we are maybe rushing the decision a bit - we still have a long time before twillight end, and if anybody have any new thoughts on the story whatsoever, I would like to hear them before locking.

Undragonhunt: Moar

How does the common "you can't leave, you will return, bla bla" saying from the SPF go? Do you (everybody) think it's totally unplausible that the hint I posted earlier could refer to jcakes and his short returns to the forums?

I do think that SI put a little something that could point at each person in the Dragonhunt but the Moar clue was the thing that drew my attention first, so it is possible that moar is a red herring but if that is the case it seems that we are setup to fail.

 

[Kestegs]

Inches and feet were enough to allow the US to place multiple men on the moon, and multiple spacecraft on Mars. The metric system was enough to allow the rest of the world to watch on TV. Advantage: US.

This is a strong contender for going onto my signature :highfive:

I saw 3 win conditions in the first post, one of which was poorly defined. Which one does he have?

Don't know, but I'm willing to assume that it's one of them!

 

[Caluin Graye]

The Red Dragon is the most covetous of all the dragons. It believes that wealth belongs to those strong enough to take it and thus lives by that principle, applying it to even itself.

I had a friend once that made up his own dragons. He always felt that they were too one-dimensional. If they were always sitting around lazily guarding treasure, how did they amass new fortunes? Dragons aren't exactly the kind of creature to one day just decide that its trove is just the right size. But while they're away, how do they ensure their hoard is guarded properly? Some people say they simply use minions, but that was stupid in his eyes. If you were a nigh-immortal, element breathing, shapeshifting, spell casting lizard of fear and doom, would you entrust your most valuable hoard to freakin' kobolds? HELL. NO.

So my friend created a new dragon. This one actively advertised where its lair was and at times even baited adventurers with tales of how grand the haul would be. The lizard figured adventurers always had neat, magical items and treasure. It was like home delivery! The neat thing was that the dragon didn't ever kill the adventurers; at least, not right away. After stripping them of all their shinies, the dragon would then turn them loose with enough provisions to make it back to town. It figured that this would properly motivate the adventurers to get more shinies and come back with even better treasure.

I don't know where I was going with that. I just really like that story and tell it every chance I get.

I see Jason found what i found, too easy? maybe

I'm sort of curious as to why you didn't point out the clue.

He was just complimenting her. She's Dragonhung. Most of the guys here are jealous of her.

At least we now know where the 40 meters comes in.

Lol, his reasoning on you last game was piss poor.

I disagree. His reasoning after the fact made quite a bit of sense. He was looking for people that exhibited signs of night talk, and he found them.

No one uses chains, furlongs, or leagues, so your analysis is irrelevant.

Speak for yourself. I use chains all the time. The ladies love it.

Interesting, perhaps. Useful? Not at all. Just another D1/twillight topic that will be discussed to death and beyond, taking away focus from more pressing discussions (not that any are going on so far).

I'm of the opinion that any discussion is good discussion. A lot can be told of someone who avoids one topic of discussion to pursue the easier. See Technomancer is Ravenwood Retreat game for a good example.


Dragonhunt: Moar

 

[Caluin Graye]

On one hand, it means the mafia mafia have a slight advantage if there is another lynch tomorrow, but on the other hand, what is the likelihood of lynching a mafia on D1 (w/ twilight) with 2 lynches?

This was interesting enough to warrant it's own post.

Why do you feel that giving the town an extra use of its primary weapon to win the game is giving the mafia an advantage? The flippant (and ironically, most accurate) answer to your question is "Double our normal chance."

 

[thefranklin]

Rereading this post: If town 'needs' an extra lynch, there is possibly more mafia to worry about than the standard 1/4'th. Thoughts?

How often does a day 1 lynch end well for the town? Follow up question, if it did end well for the town, how often was it a complete crapshoot?

I tend to agree with Gwahir that it is not an advantage, and that scum may get some kind of advantage for being wrong. Which points to your random vote on TC right away. And combine that with this post thinking an extra lynch on D1 would balance a larger mafia, and we have our first scum suspect. Well, you and the rest of the metric users.

 

[Goryani]

Lol, his reasoning on you last game was piss poor.

1. We were on different sides last game.
2. I got away with it for 2 days, so it obviously wasn't that piss poor.

Now, which of these makes the most sense with a base 10 number system?

What about those of us who don't use a base 10 number system?

No one uses chains, furlongs, or leagues, so your analysis is irrelevant.

But you used chains last night...

 

[pharphis]

This was interesting enough to warrant it's own post.

Why do you feel that giving the town an extra use of its primary weapon to win the game is giving the mafia an advantage? The flippant (and ironically, most accurate) answer to your question is "Double our normal chance."

I screwed up some wording. I meant that it should be an advantage to the own, but I'm always of the thought that a D1 lynch just starts conversation more than anything. When does it ever catch a scum?

Yes, doubling the chance makes sense (slightly more than doubling if the first lynch is a miss), but I think it's unlikely. That's not to say I think we shouldn't use it, necessarily.

That's why I asked Solar if it could be saved for a time that there is more to go on and be much more likely be successful with the lynch.

 

[Goryani]

This is why I think it was a good idea for Solar to add a goal for Twilight. something to actually start with.

But the goal isn't in Twilight....the true goal is finding TWO scum to lynch on D1. Look at how mafia were able to abuse the dual lynch of the Cheers game. I'm pretty sure a townie was lynched with the extra vote every time. D1 is gonna be interesting.

 

[Laarz]

Are you trying to figure out how my mind works CG? You should have it figured out by now.

 

[FredOfErik]

I'm of the opinion that any discussion is good discussion. A lot can be told of someone who avoids one topic of discussion to pursue the easier. See Technomancer is Ravenwood Retreat game for a good example.

Point taken. I have however before been frustrated about discussions (based on guessing) taking up too much time of, especially, the first day phases. I believe saying "all discussion is good discussion" is too simplifying, and that especially the kind of discussions that result from pure speculation can prove more useful to scum than town.

 

[Drixx]

I do think that SI put a little something that could point at each person in the Dragonhunt but the Moar clue was the thing that drew my attention first, so it is possible that moar is a red herring but if that is the case it seems that we are setup to fail.

The MOAR clue is the only one that doesn't require outside knowledge of the people or the setting. Putting that clue in and having it be wrong would be essentially "bastardmod" territory. It's like putting in a cop who gets a random answer.

 

[FredOfErik]

How often does a day 1 lynch end well for the town? Follow up question, if it did end well for the town, how often was it a complete crapshoot?

Simplified: lynching = information.

town will lynch town every game. every time town lynches someone, they gain information and the chance to kill of scum. after every opportunity town gets to lynch somebody mafia gets the chance to kill somebody. town having two opportunities to lynch before mafia get one (or their second, dependent on day or night start) is a very clear advantage in my eyes.

 

[Bad Ash]

How often does a day 1 lynch end well for the town? Follow up question, if it did end well for the town, how often was it a complete crapshoot?

I tend to agree with Gwahir that it is not an advantage, and that scum may get some kind of advantage for being wrong. Which points to your random vote on TC right away. And combine that with this post thinking an extra lynch on D1 would balance a larger mafia, and we have our first scum suspect. Well, you and the rest of the metric users.

The answer is we will have a 1 in 11 chance of lynching scum on day one as opposed to a 1 in 22 chance.

I can use this logic too: How often do LYNCHES in general turn out for the town? I bet over the course of all our games we are batting below .300.

It doubles the chance of us lynching town and doubles the chance of us lynching scum. The goal of the game is to lynch scum, so it's an advantage even if the lynches are random.

 

[Kestegs]

How often does a day 1 lynch end well for the town? Follow up question, if it did end well for the town, how often was it a complete crapshoot?

I tend to agree with Gwahir that it is not an advantage, and that scum may get some kind of advantage for being wrong. Which points to your random vote on TC right away. And combine that with this post thinking an extra lynch on D1 would balance a larger mafia, and we have our first scum suspect. Well, you and the rest of the metric users.

Welcome to my scum list, population one.

 

[Goryani]

Why do you feel that giving the town an extra use of its primary weapon to win the game is giving the mafia an advantage? The flippant (and ironically, most accurate) answer to your question is "Double our normal chance."

Lynches are given to mafia as well and are a primary weapon that allows mafia to win the game. Lynch or mislynch is the zero sum struggle which determines the winner of a mafia game. D1 is most skewed toward mislynch. If the dragonhunt is placed for balance reasons, I think it's more likely it aids mafia, giving them the opportunity to mislynch an extra townie with little to no risk.

Just because we have an option to double lynch doesn't mean we should use it. Too much lynching for information and not enough lynching to eliminate scum.

 

[pharphis]

The answer is we will have a 1 in 11 chance of lynching scum on day one as opposed to a 1 in 22 chance.

I can use this logic too: How often do LYNCHES in general turn out for the town? I bet over the course of all our games we are batting below .300.

It doubles the chance of us lynching town and doubles the chance of us lynching scum. The goal of the game is to lynch scum, so it's an advantage even if the lynches are random.

Only 1 mafia? Is this a SK bread crumb? (Yes I'm kidding).

The last bit is an interesting way of simplifying it.

 

[pharphis]

But the goal isn't in Twilight....the true goal is finding TWO scum to lynch on D1. Look at how mafia were able to abuse the dual lynch of the Cheers game. I'm pretty sure a townie was lynched with the extra vote every time. D1 is gonna be interesting.

I think you recall right about the cheer's game. At least, that's what I was thinking when I made my post about D1 double lynch.

Yes, 2 scum on D1 is highly unlikely. 1 scum and 1 townie is still unlikely. 2 townies is very likely. Ofc, that's (mostly) from a statistical point of view, but it's also tough for town to make even 1 successful lynch D1.

I somewhat feel that 2 lynches D1 will just out power roles (like cop) sooner.

I'm still not opposed to making a lynch D1, ofc, since we're not even there yet and it's impossible to know at this point. But it is fun to speculate about it, since as Gory said above, the goal today is to FIND 2 scum to lynch.

 

[Goryani]

Assume...
Town = town or town aligned neutral
Scum = Anti-town or neutral with a win-con incompatible with the town

Two lynches gives 4 possible outcomes: town/town, town/scum and scum/scum.

What do you think are the odds of a town/town lynch?
What do you think are the odds of a town/scum lynch?
What do you think are the odds of a scum/scum lynch?

 

[BipolarChemist]

Yes, 2 scum on D1 is highly unlikely. 1 scum and 1 townie is still unlikely. 2 townies is very likely. Ofc, that's (mostly) from a statistical point of view, but it's also tough for town to make even 1 successful lynch D1.

I somewhat feel that 2 lynches D1 will just out power roles (like cop) sooner.

There is the possibility of getting rid of Neutrals, if there are any, like SK or VI.