Batman - The Dark Knight Mafia Game

[coju]

I haven't seen anyone pursue a lynch in this game.

Well, we cannot lynch anyone quite yet. I thought that the investigation put the 2(ish) players up for lynch tomorrow.
Everyone who has voted for an investigation has put someone up to lynch.

Does that include you as well?

Yes.

 

[coju]

I hope we haven't forgotten that: we don't get information from the investigies, we get the chance to lynch them tomorrow. It's been brought up before that those voting should be voting for scummy players.
I'm treating this day like a Day 1. Whereas we have nothing to go one except for posts, just like any day 1. We're not 'after' fictional dragons today, we're after real players in this game with the opportunity to capture *hopefully* two scum like we did that day.
It's been brought up a couple of times:
from the balder's gate game, and

Allow myself to quote myself:

Rereading this post:

I would say there is a small chance it could be a useful topic, and much higher chance than a metric/English unit discussion (as amusing as it is). Also I think it is actually a good point to be aware of, as we may not know the full importance of this hunt (or future sidequests - could this be a daily thing?). If it continues, how much effort should be put into solving it, how much care into making the right choice? Could be the only effect is a second lynch for us tomorrow, but that is not a huge advantage. It could become much more important if mafia get some sort of advantage if we fail. There might be no way to tell if they do, but it is something to keep an eye out for.

Anyways, as you do not deem that a useful conversation to have, why did you not actually bring up these pressing discussions we need to have?

@phar - that what was what I was reading for, but I think now I was going about it wrong. Character description gives a serious advantage to people who have played more or know the people not playing here. It makes more sense to have them work as a puzzle, so it levels the playing field if you have not been around long. I think SI would lean more towards the second option.

If town 'needs' an extra lynch, there is possibly more mafia to worry about than the standard 1/4'th. Thoughts?

 

[coju]

Does that include you as well?

Wait a second... After thinking about it, I'm using it as a normal vote.

 

[Solar Ice]

I have no freaking clue. Did it sound like an intelligent question?

It sounded like you wanted advice on how to answer questions, not with honesty but rather the responses you would perceive the Town would like to hear.

There's more townies than scum?

Seems more likely to get townies on accident with a higher number of town vs mafia. Of course, with Gotham City being like it is, there could be loads of mafia and only a few actual civilians.

Brings up a question for the group, how much does everyone know about Batman? I have read quite a few of the comics and have seen all of the movies as most everyone in my age group has, I'm sure.

Did anyone other than me think back to ASoFI game when reading the bolded part? I am not sure at all of what to make of this (or even if there is anything to "make"), especially seeing as CDM did not play in that game. I do not like it one bit though, especially not coupled with the multikill possibility question.

 

[thefranklin]

I think Gory's logic is wrong and he is using it as a big waste of time and distracting others from attempting anything. I can't believe a scum Gory would handle this in such an obvious way, but it sure stinks like scum to me. I would not be upset if we end up putting him up for interrogation. I also think Bad Ash, Drixx, Pharphis, maybe Mal (he made way to much sense, heh). To be clear, the Mal part was a joke. Pharphis for joining in on Gory's disctraction asking about night starts and if mafia talk during them or something. Highly irrelevent. Bad Ash is just a feeling I get.

And just so there is no more stalling: the reason I think Gory's logic is wrong is because we are choosing the top 2, not the top one. It would take an awful lot of mafia to allow the town to not have useful/total/reliable input on at least one of the people up for interrogation. And if there is that many mafia there is a good chance we will have picked one of them anyway.

So we need people to quit whining about it and actually do something.

I don't see why we can't go into D1 with our top two scum suspects of twilight in a different category with the chance of an extra lynch. It is no different than a twilight that has no such mechanic and coming up with a lynch on D1, the town should have ideas on what suspects they are going to have going into the day, and we can do there here.

 

[Solar Ice]

WHERE IS HE? WHERE? *punch*

pls put sharpie in pooper

Is there anything you would like to add to this Twilight Phase other than gibberish?

 

[Solar Ice]

Wait a second... After thinking about it, I'm using it as a normal vote.

How do you define "normal vote" in the context of your vote for Bad Ash?

 

[Ankeli1]

Interrogate: Goryani

I don't like this twilight system, it restricts our options on day 1 too much. We're forced to make the correct call during the twilight when every smart mafia just blends in and posts... nothing of importance. Ugh.

Why Goryani? It seems like Noodle is topping the charts, and I'd love to see a heads up between him and Goryani tomorrow.

 

[Caluin Graye]

In that case I'd say create some ties to have the widest possible pool for prosecution tomorrow. I thought Mal's idea was brilliant.

Really? I thought it was not. I required everyone to vote for themselves, which is an extremely unlikely scenario. It requires mafia to play along, which they'll not do if it's not in their best interest. It interferes with normal scum hunting too much. (Ex: These three people failed to Interrogate themselves, even though they were online! We should use our normal lynch on one of them, since they're obviously scum!)

 

[Caluin Graye]

So let's examine a potential day 1 scenario. 23 players with 5 mafia. If there are no slips and nobody says something that gives a scum tell, it's basically a random lynch. Someone will generate some reason and others will jump on board just because it's generally accepted that the town should lynch. So you have and 18/23 chance of lynching a tonwie (78%) which gives you a 22% chance to get a scum.

So unless someone makes a slip basically a day start gives this theoretical mafia team a 78% chance to go into the day following their first kill with an extra dead townie while the town gets a 22% chance to go into the first night with a mafia dead before the first townie dies.

That seems fairly strongly weighted towards the mafia side.

You math is suggesting that because the odds heavily favour tagging a townie instead of a mafia, we shouldn't proceed with a lynch on Day One. At what point does the math become favourable enough that the town should start lynching, even if randomly?

 

[pharphis]

You math is suggesting that because the odds heavily favour tagging a townie instead of a mafia, we shouldn't proceed with a lynch on Day One. At what point does the math become favourable enough that the town should start lynching, even if randomly?

This is my favourite question every game it comes up.

 

[Bad Ash]

A wide pool wouldn't be a bad thing but seriously we don't have to lynch the interogated if we don't want to

 

[Gwaihir]

Well, this will be out of date as I went to lunch before posting, but here is what I had:

Interrogation is a plurality vote system. It's not the typical majority lynch system.

Hmm, that does make a difference. I was thinking we would end up with more than 2-3 votes on specific characters, but we do not seem to be heading that way.

I think it might be best to treat it as an actual majority vote, and get the 8+ on 2 people. Makes it harder for mafia to hide. Lets say we spread out using ties - 3 apiece. We lynch 6 people. If there are 6 mafia, is seems like 3-4 of those 6 could be influenced by mafia. And smart mafia would be all over and harder to distinguish from townies.

I was trying to understand what you were saying. I told you what it said to me implicitly. You pointed out that it didn't say those things explicitly, which is true, but only you know whether you meant the things that I saw implicitly there. Your response is satisfying though.

As far as would I lynch on a game starting with a day phase? I guess the answer is kind of a little complicated. I think there is a lot of validity in the idea that the town needs to lynch, but there are some exceptional cases where a no-lynch is better.

So let's examine a potential day 1 scenario. 23 players with 5 mafia. If there are no slips and nobody says something that gives a scum tell, it's basically a random lynch. Someone will generate some reason and others will jump on board just because it's generally accepted that the town should lynch. So you have and 18/23 chance of lynching a tonwie (78%) which gives you a 22% chance to get a scum.

So unless someone makes a slip basically a day start gives this theoretical mafia team a 78% chance to go into the day following their first kill with an extra dead townie while the town gets a 22% chance to go into the first night with a mafia dead before the first townie dies.

That seems fairly strongly weighted towards the mafia side.

Then you have the standard night start game where a townie dies and that starts the game and basically the town has little to nothing to go on the first day. Basically over a large sample set of games, 4 times out of 5 the night start game benefits the town more than a day start game.

The twilight start, on the other hand, gives both sides an opportunity to get some data before the first body hits the ground. It's debatable which side gets more benefit from twilight phase, but it seems like it's better than either a night or day start as far as the town is concerned.

I I see. Do you have any quotes from what I said indicating even implicit support?

Hmm. you give a lot of math and odds, but no real opinion in there that I can see, except maybe don't lynch on day 1 without an obvious scum slip. Is that accurate? If so at what point should you start lynching? How obvious a scum slip does it have to be? What exactly would an obvious scum slip be?

well, i know that 4 mafia is standard for a 20 man game, so the extra 3 people might give an extra mafia, howver 6 is probably possible, i think that 7 is excessive though.

if mafia dont know each other yet then then we are able to interrogate without fear that the mafia can control it as easily you say, and we might acatually have a mafia up for interrogation/prosection, if hey DO know each other then you are correct, and we really cant expect to get a scum lynch tommorow with that system.

About 1/4 is standard (so 5 is more likely in a 20 man game I think) - although it varies based on power roles and number of anti-town factions and neutrals. I would expect 6 at least.

I would be suprised if mafia don't know partners. I am pretty sure every game I was mafia I knew them at the start. I think one time it was not clear and the mod immediately sent out info on who was on the team.

I have no freaking clue. Did it sound like an intelligent question?

Brings up a question for the group, how much does everyone know about Batman? I have read quite a few of the comics and have seen all of the movies as most everyone in my age group has, I'm sure.

It sounded off to me. Seems like you might want to know how a townie plays so you can pretend.
As for knowledge, a few movies and video games are what I am going off of.

Go on.....seems plausible. Would multiple serial killers be too far fetched? I did see Valhaurous has shown his baby killin' face...

It would make sense to have a ton of individual anti-towns based on setting. But how you could make that into a game, I have absolutely no idea.

 

[Drixx]

You math is suggesting that because the odds heavily favour tagging a townie instead of a mafia, we shouldn't proceed with a lynch on Day One. At what point does the math become favourable enough that the town should start lynching, even if randomly?

Trick question. The math doesn't apply because the game is really played based upon non quantifiable elements. How people vote or don't vote. How people react to certain things, slips, misplays, etc... and then of course you have town power roles who can hopefully bring clarity as the game moves on.

If we're just talking random numbers, it seems pretty clear that in every day phase the town would have a higher chance of hitting a townie than a mafia although that chance would reduce as the chance of hitting a mafia increases. The problem is that absent save mechanics, the town has a nearly guaranteed chance to lose someone each night phase.

So I suppose the answer to your question is that since the odds only get worse, the town should (as a general rule) always lynch. That last mini-game is the first time I can recall seeing a no-lynch help the town, and honestly it seems like it was sheer dumb luck. Gory had no way to know that BPC was town and got super stubborn about it. Ended up winning the game, so I'm not complaining ... but how often does that sort of scenario happen?

Anyway, I think the biggest takeaway is that the numbers only help to a certain extent. At some point we have to move beyond them and play the game. My point with the numbers was to show that of the three potential ways to start the game (day start, night start, twilight start) the twilight start is the best one for the town.

 

[coju]

How do you define "normal vote" in the context of your vote for Bad Ash?

In the context of the vote for bad ash, I enjoy following noodle. Just copy-cat stuff.

 

[coju]

Not all the time though. Stuff like pre-dayphase votes and when nothing else is to go on.

 

[Drixx]

@Gwaihir - I think I answered your question for the most part in my post above. As far as the scum slips go, it's usually much better players than myself who catch them.

 

[Gwaihir]

cdm - how many games have you played? How many were as mafia and how many as town?

Yes. Black Blood Brothers.

they chatted before game start? Interesting.

You math is suggesting that because the odds heavily favour tagging a townie instead of a mafia, we shouldn't proceed with a lynch on Day One. At what point does the math become favourable enough that the town should start lynching, even if randomly?

This is my favourite question every game it comes up.

And why is that?

 

[Kestegs]

Interrogate: Goryani

I don't like this twilight system, it restricts our options on day 1 too much. We're forced to make the correct call during the twilight when every smart mafia just blends in and posts... nothing of importance. Ugh.

Why Goryani? It seems like Noodle is topping the charts, and I'd love to see a heads up between him and Goryani tomorrow.

You seem to know who the mafia are already.

investigate: ankeli

 

[Solar Ice]

A wide pool wouldn't be a bad thing but seriously we don't have to lynch the interogated if we don't want to

This is the second post that you made reminding everyone that a lynch of the interrogated candidates is not compulsory. Noodle (3), yourself (2) and BPC(2) were the leading candidates at the time of post 120. The top candidates are the same now, 3/2/3 respectively.

Do I detect a hint of nervousness in your voice?