Baldur's Gate Mafia Game

/offtopic - I am not actually playing this game, but I figured seeing as I am in the story (and TC is posting, I should be allowed one post)

A couple of things

1. Solar Ice you forgot Rule 16. Cakes is stupid I am dissapoint

2. I can't help but get involved in Metric / Imperial debate feel free to discuss it more in the bar, but I wanted to clarify a few things

kestegs said:
You guys do realize I was being facetious, right?

But seriously....

Metric is stupid!
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Says the electrician who uses SI units. Volts, Amps, Ohms, Watts are all SI derived units

1 Watt = 1 kg.m[SUP]2[/SUP]/s[SUP]3[/SUP]
1 Volt = 1 kg.m[SUP]2[/SUP] /s[SUP]3[/SUP].A
1 Ohm = 1 kg.m[SUP]2[/SUP]/s[SUP]3[/SUP]A[SUP]2[/SUP]
Ampere is the base SI unit for current.
One thing that always puzzled me about the US is that you use two different units for power. Horsepower for mechanical power and Watts / kW for electrical power. Makes converting between work and power a lot more difficult

Noodle said:
Inches and feet were enough to allow the US to place multiple men on the moon, and multiple spacecraft on Mars. The metric system was enough to allow the rest of the world to watch on TV. Advantage: US.
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Except NASA uses the SI unit system. The used to accept both, until they sent a probe to Mars and missed it. Ever since then NASA has stipulated that everyone working for them must use SI.

"i. Metric System of Measurement. It is NASA policy for all new programs and projects subject to NPR 7120.5 to use the International System of Units (commonly known as the Systeme Internationale (SI) or metric system of measurement) for design, development, and operations; in preference to customary U.S. measurement units, for all internal activities, related NASA procurements, grants, and business activities. Exceptions to this policy may be granted by the NASA Chief Engineer based on program/project recommendations by the responsible Mission Directorate Associate Administrator."

reference: http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/displayDir.cfm?Internal_ID=N_PD_7120_004D_&page_name=main

Edit: Just checking if I can get mod killed for editing :)

/On topic

Enjoy the game.
 
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coju said:
ljolwut?
Are you trying to say we have the option to not lynch two people on day one?
Cal, you get my vote tomorrow.
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Why wouldn't we have that option? There's times when we don't even use our 1 lynch on D1. I am still always for a D1 lynch lynch though.
 
pharphis said:
That's what I meant. We used their behaviour regarding players to kill them immediately and it was an easy read for us. I don't think i implied we lynched them, so probably just a hiccup in your reading.
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Gory covered my point here (though you are right, you never indicated lynch). You killed me in the gods game N1 with no twilight, so you can't say that a D1 read helped you kill the cop.

Jason Maher said:
Anyway, in other news, here's an interesting table I made up:
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I am missing something here, so could you spell out what the highlight on flubb was for?

Jcakes said:
Except NASA uses the SI unit system. The used to accept both, until they sent a probe to Mars and missed it. Ever since then NASA has stipulated that everyone working for them must use SI.
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If I remember correctly it hit Mars, but just did so a bit to hard, and went poof for it.
 
Caluin Graye said:
Your math is assuming that everyone survives the night. (Granted, this is a moot point; if the dead player(s) are assumed to be townfolk, then that just makes the odds of catching scum rise as there's a smaller pool to choose from).

Assuming Moar is the Dragon, with all this math you're presenting would you say that you're for or against using both lynches on day one?



I was in that game and remember your tables, and I still don't get what you're trying to convey.
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Actually, it was assuming a day phase to begin. Getting mixed up between this place and other palces where I've played/play Mafia, where the game always starts with a day phase.

@Gwaihir: to answer two questions: first off I did read Laarz's vote on Moar before I did my digging, so I was looking for her in there somewhere. And I highlighted flub because he enjoyed it so much last time I did so.
 
Vote tally:

Moar (14): Laarz, Jason Maher, pharphis, Bad Ash, BipolarChemist, Goryani, kestegs, djmbbandie, Drixx, Ankeli, Pyrotechnician, Gwaihir, Caluin Graye, flubbucket
ThunderCat(1): coju

Four hours and thirty minutes of Twilight remain.
 
Jason Maher said:
Allow me to give you a basic probability education (I'm assuming you're not being facetious; if you're trolling, then well played sir):

If this is a typical game, there will be 4-5 scum. Let's say 4, for the sake of argument. Probability is nothing more, nothing less than a count of how many possible outcomes out of the full set of all possible outcomes match a certain criteria. It is expressed as a fraction: the number of possible outcomes that match the criteria divided by the total number of possible outcomes. Very often, this is converted to a decimal. A probability can never be greater than 1, since you can't have more outcomes mathcing your criteria than the total number of possible outcomes in any given context. Since we are counting things, a pronbability can never be less than 0 either. All of the possible outcomes collectively are referred to as the "sample space".

In our context, we are lynching one player from a pool of 22. For the sake of simplicity, we'll ignore no lynch or any power role shenanigans. Any one of the 22 players could be lynched, giving us 22 possible outcomes, or a sample space of 22. We've already assumed there are 4 scum, which is the criteria for the outcomes we are interested in. So, we have 4 outcoems that match our criteria, and 22 possible outcomes. This gives us a probability of 4/22, or ~0.18, of catching a scum in one lynch.

To figure out the probability for two lynches is a fair bit more complicated, as the outcome for the second lynch is dependent on the outcome of the first. You can see how this situation is handled in my previous post, but allow me to explain a little more fully. Since by the time we get to the second lynch, any one of 22 players will have already been lynched, we have to do the same analysis as we did for the first lynch 22 times over (one for each possible outcome for the first lynch). Luckily there are shortcuts, but let's continue.

Let us assume we got lucky the first time and nabbed a scum. This means there are only 3 left alive, out of 21 players. So the probability of nabbing another scum is 3/21, or ~0.14. But assuming we got a scum first time out is a dangerous assumption, when we already know there was only an 18% chance of that happening. So how do we handle not making assumptions about the first lynch? Beyond that, how do we figure out the probabilities associated with the outcome of both lynches, taken together?

Recall above that I used the word count. It's helpful to reiterate this: probability is first and foremost a counting process. We are counting how many ways an uncertain event or sequence of related or unrelated events can occur (in most cases, the uncertainity is because the events haven't happened yet, but it can also be the case that we are dealing past events where we don't know what exactly has happened). In our case, there are 22 possible outcomes on the first lynch, and for each of these outcomes, another 21 possible outcomes on the second lynch. Now we know that if we count 21 objects 22 times, we are dealing with multiplication, so our sample space for what we want to know (the chance of catching a scum in 2 lynches) is 22 x 21 = 462. Put another way, there are 462 possible ways of lynching 2 people out of 22. What we want to know is how many of these 462 net us what we want - at least one scum (we want two, but we'll be content with one). We could reduce this number by realising that lynching Jason Maher and then Bad Ash is ultimately the same outcome as lynching Bad Ash and then Jason Maher, but as it would make our calculations more difficult, we won't do this.

Often in probability, as in life, there is more than one way to skin a cat (and they're all fun! :badteeth:). We could, in theory, count up all the possible outcomes where at least one scum is lynched, and then divide this by 462. Or, realising the front door is locked, and not desiring to go to the trouble of fishing out a key, we could nick 'round the back door instead, which we know to be unlocked. Which is to say, sometimes it easier to count the events we're not interested in, and figure out the result we want by a simple subtraction (since the probabilities of all possible outcomes always sum to 1 (or 462/462 in our case), or in other words, once you've counted every outcome that meets the criteria you're interested in and then counted every outcome that doesn't, you've counted everything there is to count).

So then, let's count all the outcomes we don't want - every outcome where we lynch two townies. There are 18 townies in the first lynch, and if we nab one, then there are 17 left for the second. So for our worst case scenario, using the same method as above when counting all possible outcome, we have 18 cases of lynching one townie, and for each one of these, 17 cases of lynching another one. So we're counting 17 18 times over, which gives us 17 x 18 = 306 cases (out of 462) where we nab 2 townies. It thus follows that the other 156 cases net us at least one scum (4 x 3 = 12 of them net us 2 scum, by the same analysis).

TL;DR version:

The chance of lynching one of 4 scum with 22 players is 4/22 = ~0.18

The chance of lynching at least one of 4 scum in 2 lynches with 22 players is 156/462 = ~0.34

The chance of getting lucky and catching 2 scum is 12/462 = ~0.026

Numbers different to my previous post due to differing assumptions.

Note that all of this analysis assume each outcome is equally likely. Not true in general in a Mafia game, but close enough on day 1. Assessing a situation where outcome is not equally likely requires weighting multipliers, greatly complicating the analysis. Also, it's often very difficult, if not impossible, to accurately estimate what the weightings should be.
Click to expand...


Basic probability tells me my eyes will probably glaze over and I will probably fall into a deep sleep before I finish reading this. zzzzzzzzz:p
 
flubbucket said:
Spleling can be fnu...

derp
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nfNeT7YvTozx0cv7ze3mplZpo1_500.gif
 
coju said:
ljolwut?
Are you trying to say we have the option to not lynch two people on day one?
Cal, you get my vote tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Seems like an over-reaction to a simple question?

Or are you saying we lynch two people regardless of how everything plays out?

Now I may have been a little strong on the wording when I said "two lynches isn't an advantage d1" when what I was really thinking (and what I was replying too) was that "two lynches isn't enough of an advantage d1 to have a more numerous mafia" It is a statistical advantage but can turn into a crapshoot. Lynching is not the towns only too, accountability is a lot more important. Hardly any time after d3 or so can you tie things together by what happened on a d1 lynch or mislynch. But it is town to say "lynches = information, more lynches = better" so have yourself a ball.

Lynches tend to hurt my neck something bad.
 
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