Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

I can think of one very good reason for a mafia team to punt upfield on Night 0 instead of sending in a kill - the obvious drawback may be worth it under those circumstances, plus the lack of any kind of information for the town at large mitigates the inactivity even further.

I'm curious, what's the very good reason?

The mafia may already have enough info to make a no-kill Night 0 worth it to them.

In a past game, as mafia, I considered not sending in a kill, but that game had unusual circumstances. We knew a roleblocker existed. We knew who was being blocked that night. I *think* the player being blocked was blocked previously, and during that night, no NK happened. It was, literally, a perfect frame setup. I can't imagine mafia knowing anything close to that amount of information N1 this game.

Call it a policy lynch if you wish.

What policy got triggered? I'm as yet unable to identify it.

My voice seems to be weakening, meaning I have received a post restriction. I do not know how or why, but I was notified of this about an hour and a half ago. I can now only post five times for the remainder of the day, including this post, with a limit or five sentences in each post. Beyond that, I will remain capable of voting and unvoting only.

Effective immediately, I will be considering carefully if what I have to say is worth spending a post on.

That's.....completely random. I don't think I've ever seen this ability/role/behavior before.

Part of me is thinking: "Why use one of your 5 posts to tell us something and not wait 30min, 1 hour, whatever to also include something you consider worth spending a post on." You're an active poster (usually), but 5 posts should still be plenty enough to hide this restriction. You're creative enough to say plenty in 5 sentences with liberal use of conjunctions so that isn't an issue especially considering the poem you once wrote, which was quite eloquent by the way, though it did tend to confuse the game at the time... (sorry, example of what can be said in one sentence).

For now, I'll just wonder if this post restriction is something we'll be seeing more of or if it's a one time deal.

 

[Marahumm]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Ugh, can we hold off on the "let's lynch Marahumm" train for a bit?

I promise the town won't want me dead just yet.

 

[Kraz3yIvan]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Also a light bulb just went off in my tired brain, tomorrow I'll check the thread as to interactions with Gorny (Ravenwood Retreat posts only) because one or two of the mafia players may have picked up on his early post.....

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

TIME SHARE SALESMEN!! :rolf: If this was my game, I wouldn't be able to help but do something like that, solely based on the SP episode!!

That is NOT funny! I lied. It is pretty funny.

it doesnt happen roughly every 2 to 3 games. Thats a legitimate doc save in general. We are saying no info from a night 1 event. That prob happens on average we'll say once a game, twice if youre feeling generous. so change your "happens roughly every 2 or 3 game nights" to "happens roughly every 10 GAMES" aka not likely.

You are correct. However, I wasn't limiting my discussion to night 1 events only. When I said 5% per night, I meant it as 5% any random night - it could be N1, it could be N10. Thus, 5% per night happens roughly every 20 game nights, which would in fact be every 2-3 games.

Most scenarios - no NK sent in, doc, block, NK immune - can happen on any given night. The night 1 restriction affects exactly 1 scenario: mod enforced no N1 kill. It's impossible to determine a valid percentage for that scenario happening so I'm ignoring percentages for that scenario, and therefore, ignoring night 1 restrictions when dealing with percentages.

Ok, so I went back and re-read all of the relavent posts concerning Marahumm, and honestly I don't have a strong vibe one way or the other in the debate.
...
I'll vote to lynch Mara if he continues to act scummy, but just mentioning profile visits isn't really enough for me.

The underlined passages look more than a little contradictory to me. Care to elaborate?

Also a light bulb just went off in my tired brain, tomorrow I'll check the thread as to interactions with Gorny (Ravenwood Retreat posts only) because one or two of the mafia players may have picked up on his early post.....

Possible but not always probable, at least with finding multiples. I can buy one mafia pushing Gorny pretty easy. Multiple mafia pushing someone they KNOW isn't mafia on the hunch they have a power role seems too dangerous to be plausible. That's a lot of exposure that can be avoided by one person pushing and others silently voting.

Yes, I realize KI mentioned interactions while I'm discussing "pushing."

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

That is NOT funny!
The underlined passages look more than a little contradictory to me. Care to elaborate?

I guess "continue" was a bad word to use. Obviously other people think him acting scummy, and if he continues to not show any proof of being pro-town to them then I would lynch him just to have a lynch today, but also that if he started acting scummy I would also lynch him, again for the same reasons.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

second cult-related thing. not finding it suspicious yet, but do you feel there is a cult or no?

I'm quite certain that there is a 3rd faction, but I doubt it's a cult. I do however feel that the mafia may have recruited an additional person last night. Or then it was a PR intervention.

It's possible that Uraj forgot to mention the restriction to Feysal. However, I somewhat doubt that and Feysal's restriction. But the only way to prove it is to lynch him. Not saying we should lynch him just yet, but we should investigate.

What we should do about it is wait for a day or two, see if anyone else gets the same (or any) restriction during a day phase, and then react accordingly. There's also the chance that FeyFey (covering for Zhao) is mafia and he made up a plan involving a day time post restriction and the next person to "get" the restriction is one of his mafia friends. For this reason, if other restrictions show up, we should lynch Feysal first out of them to see his alignment. But indeed, not yet. Not for a day or two.

Who made the 10%-12% comment TC later commented on?

Propably me? I'm shamed to admit that I started the number crunching this time.

WTF is going on with Feysal? Is that a common occurrence? Have you guys seen that very much before? This seems to be about the only thing that has actually happened in this game so far, could *this* be what happened last night?

Post restrictions are somewhat common, but them starting in the middle of a day phase isn't. That doesn't mean anything though. I for one think that Uraj made up a nice restriction if it is indeed real and/or he didn't forget to PM it to Feysal last night and just did it now.

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Post restrictions are somewhat common, but them starting in the middle of a day phase isn't. That doesn't mean anything though. I for one think that Uraj made up a nice restriction if it is indeed real and/or he didn't forget to PM it to Feysal last night and just did it now.

What kind of roles involve post restriction?

Hummm, Gorny seem that suspicious-.- Ah well, that sucks

Unvote: Goryani

Might jump on this Marahumm bus, he's one of the people I find slightly suspicious.

Ugh, can we hold off on the "let's lynch Marahumm" train for a bit?

I promise the town won't want me dead just yet.

Unless you care to explain why you shouldn't be lynched yet, eh?

 

[Uraj]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Just a reminder, unvotes need to come with new votes for the rest of this day phase.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Pretty Boxes!

...so the chances that a power role prevented a kill are roughly 10%-12%, based on figures already mentioned here...

Are you 100% sure about that?

Oh please don't start that again! you and you percentages!

Who made the 10%-12% comment TC later commented on?

Propably me? I'm shamed to admit that I started the number crunching this time.

I was not referring to you in this instance, but I couldn't give up an excuse to draw during the game.

What kind of roles involve post restriction?

Once a robot could only speak in "machine code" and had to encode everything using a cryptographic algorithm and cipher. Mexican drug lords had to use spanish words/phrases every post. We've seen roles that could only post in pictures. Roles that had to type upside down and backwards. The list goes on and on.

Some games had multiple post restrictions. Some had fake post restrictions (invented by the players). Some of the post restricted roles were mafia. Some were townie power roles. Some were vanilla townie.

Most post restrictions are based on the theme and fit with the theme. There isn't much to be inferred from a legitimate post restriction.

 

[Technomancer]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Ugh, can we hold off on the "let's lynch Marahumm" train for a bit?

I promise the town won't want me dead just yet.

Well, any other suggestions? The day one rules make it to where we each HAVE to vote for somebody. To change my vote (for ANY of us to change our votes), I (we) have to turn it on some one else. I'm not really convinced of anything, it's just you're the only one (left) that was kinda pinging scum-o-meter. I dunno, it would probably be better described as my "suspiciously over-strategizing"-o-meter, if that makes any sense. I haven't played with you yet, so I may read too much into things. I was actually leaning more Gorny than you, but even though he rage-quiteded and turned up town, he DID seem to be acting weird (as additionally evidenced by said rage-quiteding. wtf.).

However, I am still curious about Loz's grand theory. Mentioning it and then waiting till last minute to explain is making my butt tingle just a little.

 

[Technomancer]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

...We've seen roles that could only post in pictures...

That would be awesome! Battlepix + Forum Mafia = Profit!!

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Give us another target then, Marahumm. You know best that we need to lynch someone. If it's not you, who should it be?

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Give us another target then, Marahumm. You know best that we need to lynch someone. If it's not you, who should it be?

I'm starting to agree more with this sentiment. It's not that I have any particular want to vote marahumm over anyone else, but that he is the current most likely lynch candidate, and we need to lynch someone.

Yesterday I was able to post all day because my wife's car broke down and she borrowed mine, while I took time off of work. Today I'm headed back in, so depending on my work load, I may not be able to get many more posts in before 4pm. I'll go ahead and vote Marahumm now, and if the lynch target changes, I'll try to assess it then.

Unvote: Sathoris
Vote: Marahumm

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Give us another target then, Marahumm. You know best that we need to lynch someone. If it's not you, who should it be?

That's really unfair. If you're town you should have just as much motivation to find scummy players and push for their lynch. Now you're just sitting back and letting someone else find someone and if he doesn't you'll lynch him.

In fact you haven't been looking for any scummy targets at all. You've commented on the no kill scenario's a bit coupled with some OT and attacking Gorny for no reason. The only thing closely resembling scumhunting is asking val whether he thinks lynching someone with a night action is prudent and commenting on the reason of Feysal's restriction. You havem't mentioned Mara once, but you think he's the best lynch target of the day.

Mara was a poor subsitute for a Gorny lynch anyway and you just overtook him on my list.

Vote: Thundercat

People I'm okay with to see lynched: TC, Mara, Techno,
People I think are town: Goryani, Leo, CoolguyBad, KrazeyIvan
People I'm keepingmy eye on: Assrin, Ankeli, Laarz

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Put Assrin behind Mara in the list of okay to be lynched. That was a bad post Assrin.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Unvote: Bad Ash
Vote: Asrrin

His latest post seems like a mafia 101 post, and BA has been too quiet about his opinions to put any sensible pressure on. I don't like Mara as a lynch target, at least more than Asrrin.

 

[Marahumm]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

As to why I shouldn't be lynched, I won't go any further unless I absolutely must. My top two suspects are lozhinge, with his almost eagerness to agree with sathoris about the gorny/asrrin/techno grouping and his "previous read" on Gorny, which he hasn't gone into detail yet. How has his playstyle differed from other games, Mr. Loz?

My other suspect, much farther down the list, is zarniwoop, only because he, the player that promised to never lie about his role, admitted to smelling of scum.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Unvote: Bad Ash
Vote: Asrrin

His latest post seems like a mafia 101 post, and BA has been too quiet about his opinions to put any sensible pressure on. I don't like Mara as a lynch target, at least more than Asrrin.

What part of my post seems like that? The part were I want to see someone lynched who has only been contributing a single suggestion shown to not work, or the part where I suggest I might not be available to post? FYI, I'm still going to be on and reading, but I might curtail my habits a bit while at work because I got some heat for reading forums while working.

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Unvote: Bad Ash
Vote: Asrrin

His latest post seems like a mafia 101 post, and BA has been too quiet about his opinions to put any sensible pressure on. I don't like Mara as a lynch target, at least more than Asrrin.

Why is Assrin a better target then? Assrin has been outspoken and expressed his thoughts to the town. He's basicly giving us reads on him. True enough mine haven't been too positive. But looking at the whole picture. Why would a mafia expose himself like that if he can just sit back, especially on day one.

Ugh, can we hold off on the "let's lynch Marahumm" train for a bit?

I promise the town won't want me dead just yet.

Besides, do you really think I would be dumb enough to explain my own intentions if I was part of the mafia?

These two quotes don't sit right with me. The last quote in particular feel like a caught for the wrong reasons. Coupled with the first one in where he wants to scare us out of lynching him.

I think we caught scum by accident and we should take advantage of it.

As to why I shouldn't be lynched, I won't go any further unless I absolutely must.

Again here.

New grouping: TC and Mara scum.

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Unvote: Thundercat
Vote: Marahumm

Marahumm has better chance of being lynched so I'll get my vote on him.