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OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three
- Thread starter skoolbus1
- Start date
Woke up really late and was busy all day today, so without futher ado...
Jaago was dragged from his home tonight by several large brutes that wander throughout the neighborhood. The hurl him into the street and begin punching and kicking him. It isn't long before others join in. It also isn't long before he stops breathing and is left for dead.
Night eleven. Need pm's from everyone who needs to pm me.
Jaago was dragged from his home tonight by several large brutes that wander throughout the neighborhood. The hurl him into the street and begin punching and kicking him. It isn't long before others join in. It also isn't long before he stops breathing and is left for dead.
Night eleven. Need pm's from everyone who needs to pm me.
Blood smears were rampant in the streets this morning. At first people thought it may be an animal, but nothing but a bear could have had this much flesh and guts cut up into small pieces. Upon further inspection, a detective finds parts of a wallet, one small fragment of a credit card clearly reads water_moon. Water_moon was murdered. This begins day eleven. With four people alive, it takes three votes to lynch.
Side note, today does matter, the game is definately not over yet, so make it count...
Alive (4)
muzzz
skunkbelly
GoHabsGo
goltar25
Dead (18)
Drixx (car accident)
Jaedhann (burned at the stake)
Jrlafrance (teddy bear accident)
RevenantsKnight
TouchOfInsanity
Brak (train accident)
LORD NIKON (roughed up)
xduckster (lion attack)
Sint Nikolaas (beheaded)
Cygnus (cement accident)
Thyiad (lynched)
CDRToast (shot)
Moar (pulled apart)
SiTro (poisoned)
Rashiminos (firing squad)
Sir Lister of Smeg (baseball bat accident)
Jaago (roughed up)
water_moon (sliced and diced)
In Prison (0)
No One
Side note, today does matter, the game is definately not over yet, so make it count...
Alive (4)
muzzz
skunkbelly
GoHabsGo
goltar25
Dead (18)
Drixx (car accident)
Jaedhann (burned at the stake)
Jrlafrance (teddy bear accident)
RevenantsKnight
TouchOfInsanity
Brak (train accident)
LORD NIKON (roughed up)
xduckster (lion attack)
Sint Nikolaas (beheaded)
Cygnus (cement accident)
Thyiad (lynched)
CDRToast (shot)
Moar (pulled apart)
SiTro (poisoned)
Rashiminos (firing squad)
Sir Lister of Smeg (baseball bat accident)
Jaago (roughed up)
water_moon (sliced and diced)
In Prison (0)
No One
Well, this is a tough call. Rash (highly suspected of being the dead crooked cop) was on Muzz case a lot so one can assume they we're on different sides.
Skunkbelly, I don't have much to say about him other than the fact he seem to follow the same reasoning as me which would make him a townie.
So that leaves Goltar. Rash insisted so much on making everyone believe Goltar was an innocent townie when he went to prison... it does make him a prime suspect. I know he mentionned a couple of times he was on the same side as W_M and since she got nailed, it proves she was a townie. Following that logic, Goltar would be a townie as well but it could easily be part of his strategy.
Anyhow, my vote will most likely go for him but I'll wait and see what everyone as to say.
Skunkbelly, I don't have much to say about him other than the fact he seem to follow the same reasoning as me which would make him a townie.
So that leaves Goltar. Rash insisted so much on making everyone believe Goltar was an innocent townie when he went to prison... it does make him a prime suspect. I know he mentionned a couple of times he was on the same side as W_M and since she got nailed, it proves she was a townie. Following that logic, Goltar would be a townie as well but it could easily be part of his strategy.
Anyhow, my vote will most likely go for him but I'll wait and see what everyone as to say.
skunkbelly
New member
Four left. Nobody in jail.
Reading into skoolbus's note... suppose there are 2 mafia left:
1. Town lynches a townie. Mafia kills last townie at night, and game over.
2. Town lynches nobody. Night falls with the count 2-2. Mafia kills a townie, then lynches last townie the next morning. Game over.
3. Town lynches a mafia member. Night falls with 2 townies and 1 mafia. Mafia member lynches a townie. The two wake up the next day and have a stalemate, then the mafia member murders the last townie. Game over.
Clearly, if the count is now 2-2, the game is already won for the mafia, with no possibility of a town victory.Therefore, there must be a single mafia player left.
I won't vote until tomorrow... I want to hear what everyone has to say. But at this point, I'm still troubled by the fact that Goltar was imprisoned two days ago, after such a long silence by the detective. Clearly, the detective wanted us to think he was dead... but why then pick Goltar so late in the game? Either to imprison a townie and make the mafia impact on voting count more heavily, or to protect a mafia member from lynching.
But as I said... I'm not voting yet. Just thinking.
Reading into skoolbus's note... suppose there are 2 mafia left:
1. Town lynches a townie. Mafia kills last townie at night, and game over.
2. Town lynches nobody. Night falls with the count 2-2. Mafia kills a townie, then lynches last townie the next morning. Game over.
3. Town lynches a mafia member. Night falls with 2 townies and 1 mafia. Mafia member lynches a townie. The two wake up the next day and have a stalemate, then the mafia member murders the last townie. Game over.
Clearly, if the count is now 2-2, the game is already won for the mafia, with no possibility of a town victory.Therefore, there must be a single mafia player left.
I won't vote until tomorrow... I want to hear what everyone has to say. But at this point, I'm still troubled by the fact that Goltar was imprisoned two days ago, after such a long silence by the detective. Clearly, the detective wanted us to think he was dead... but why then pick Goltar so late in the game? Either to imprison a townie and make the mafia impact on voting count more heavily, or to protect a mafia member from lynching.
But as I said... I'm not voting yet. Just thinking.
Well, looking back, it looks like Jaago was right, and muzzz didn't vote for Rash. So, based on my line of thinking, that leaves muzzz to be the last remaining mafia. I could very well be wrong, have in the past, but I'm going with it, unless someone can change my mind.
Vote: muzzz
Vote: muzzz
skunkbelly
New member
Well, if there is one mafia left, let's see...
1. Lynch a townie: we're left with two town, 1 mafia. Mafia kills off a townie, stalemate next day, then mafia wins.
2. Lynch a mafia: game over, townies win!
3. Lynch nobody: mafia kills someone, leaving 1 mafia and 2 townies. Next day, the town could still lynch a mafia member and win. Or, they could lynch nobody or a townie and lose.
So it's only game over today if we lynch the wrong person.
1. Lynch a townie: we're left with two town, 1 mafia. Mafia kills off a townie, stalemate next day, then mafia wins.
2. Lynch a mafia: game over, townies win!
3. Lynch nobody: mafia kills someone, leaving 1 mafia and 2 townies. Next day, the town could still lynch a mafia member and win. Or, they could lynch nobody or a townie and lose.
So it's only game over today if we lynch the wrong person.
Yes, I do realize what happens if we lynch the wrong person. Better to not lynch than to lynch a townie at this point. But I never said my vote is final. I specifically said I'm willing to change my mind. But just in case nobody does (or if I'm not on again before the day is over), I wanted to get my vote in.
We could wait another day and take the chance that the witness is still alive and will be killed tonight. Pretty bad odds for that. If we lynch today, there's a 1 in 4 chance of the lynchee being mafia. My vote is a 1 in 3 chance, since I know I'm a townie. I've stated my reasoning for why I picked muzzz.
Now, since we need 3 votes to lynch, and there are 4 remaining, obviously there will be exactly 3 votes to lynch whoever, since the 4th cannot vote for themselves. Whoever is the remaining mafia will (unless he's the one being voted for) join in with the two townies voting for someone. This would guarantee their win. If they are being targeted, they're far more likely to defend themselves, as they have no other chance of winning besides switching a vote.
Hopefully that made sense to someone other than me, but not likely.
We could wait another day and take the chance that the witness is still alive and will be killed tonight. Pretty bad odds for that. If we lynch today, there's a 1 in 4 chance of the lynchee being mafia. My vote is a 1 in 3 chance, since I know I'm a townie. I've stated my reasoning for why I picked muzzz.
Now, since we need 3 votes to lynch, and there are 4 remaining, obviously there will be exactly 3 votes to lynch whoever, since the 4th cannot vote for themselves. Whoever is the remaining mafia will (unless he's the one being voted for) join in with the two townies voting for someone. This would guarantee their win. If they are being targeted, they're far more likely to defend themselves, as they have no other chance of winning besides switching a vote.
Hopefully that made sense to someone other than me, but not likely.
Well, looking back, it looks like Jaago was right, and muzzz didn't vote for Rash. So, based on my line of thinking, that leaves muzzz to be the last remaining mafia. I could very well be wrong, have in the past, but I'm going with it, unless someone can change my mind.
Vote: muzzz
You're saying that Rash and I are a team? Honestly goltar, I'm dissapointed.
Aside from that, this could very well be our last day. And instead of keeping an open mind and considering possibilities you keep insisting that Rash was mafia. And that we'll win the game if we just lynch whoever didn't vote for him. But just yesterday you mentioned being more certain about Rash being the CD because of how he kept going on that Jaedhan had been the CD.
So, basically, I'd like it if you could explain why Rash was the CD (without using the same "detaining stopped after death" argument Rash used for Jaedhan). I'm also interested in why you think I would've voted numerous times for Rash if both of us were mafia.
Now, since we need 3 votes to lynch, and there are 4 remaining, obviously there will be exactly 3 votes to lynch whoever, since the 4th cannot vote for themselves. Whoever is the remaining mafia will (unless he's the one being voted for) join in with the two townies voting for someone. This would guarantee their win. If they are being targeted, they're far more likely to defend themselves, as they have no other chance of winning besides switching a vote.
It makes sense, although the last part doesn't get you anywhere. An attacked townie has just as much reason to defend themselves. The side we lynch today will lose the game.
skunkbelly
New member
So, basically, I'd like it if you could explain why Rash was the CD (without using the same "detaining stopped after death" argument Rash used for Jaedhan). I'm also interested in why you think I would've voted numerous times for Rash if both of us were mafia.
I think the reasons why the CD is most likely dead, and why the CD was most likely Rash, have been pretty well explained in posts over the past couple of days, by myself as much as anyone.
There is, I suppose, a chance that the CD is alive and in hiding, and is also the last mafia member left... if that is the case, then NOT imprisoning a townie today improves his chances a bit (3-1 is a harder vote to lose than 2-1, since it takes convincing one more person).
But still, I find it unlikely, given the events of the past couple of days.
As for you, muzzz... the fact that you didn't vote for Rash is interesting, as is the fact that you are defending his honor now.
Besides the the voting chances you mentioned, there's also the fact that most people now seem convinced the CD is dead. The way I see it, the lack of detaining after Rash's death is logical whether Rash was the CD or not.
Don't take me wrong. I'm not saying Rash was necessarily not the CD. I'm just saying that I'm not convinced. And that's why I'm not happy when someone says "let's just assume he's the CD, put our heads in the sand, and lynch anyone who didn't vote for him". It feels like a blind bet to me.
Don't take me wrong. I'm not saying Rash was necessarily not the CD. I'm just saying that I'm not convinced. And that's why I'm not happy when someone says "let's just assume he's the CD, put our heads in the sand, and lynch anyone who didn't vote for him". It feels like a blind bet to me.
skunkbelly
New member
If the town lynches the mafia member today, or if the town lynches a townie today, then it does not even matter if the mafia member is the CD... in either case the outcome of the game is certain (either because the mafia will be gone, or because the remaining mafia member will win).
However, if the CD is alive, and the town does nothing, then here's what happens:
1. Town does nothing.
2. CD kills a townie at night, leaving two townies and the CD.
3. Day breaks, and the CD imprisons a townie, leaving a stalemate.
4. Night falls, and the CD kills a townie.
5. Day breaks, and the previously imprisoned townie is the only townie left, leaving a stalemate.
6. Night falls, and the CD kills the last townie. Game over.
So if we operate on the assumption that the CD could be alive, we absolutely must pick the mafia member correctly today... otherwise, we lose either by a bad lynching or by no lynching.
If the CD is dead, then we could lynch nobody today, and still have a chance to win tomorrow.
That's a heavy choice for us. Lynching nobody is a gamble.
However, if the CD is alive, and the town does nothing, then here's what happens:
1. Town does nothing.
2. CD kills a townie at night, leaving two townies and the CD.
3. Day breaks, and the CD imprisons a townie, leaving a stalemate.
4. Night falls, and the CD kills a townie.
5. Day breaks, and the previously imprisoned townie is the only townie left, leaving a stalemate.
6. Night falls, and the CD kills the last townie. Game over.
So if we operate on the assumption that the CD could be alive, we absolutely must pick the mafia member correctly today... otherwise, we lose either by a bad lynching or by no lynching.
If the CD is dead, then we could lynch nobody today, and still have a chance to win tomorrow.
That's a heavy choice for us. Lynching nobody is a gamble.
Indeed, lynching someone today seems like our last legitimate chance to capture the win. I wish I'd have more time to think about it but I also believe pretty much everything as been said.
Anyways, my suspicions we're on Goltar and the last couple of posts haven't changed my mind. Since I'm leaving out of town later today and probably won't have a chance to come back here before the day end, I'll cast my vote now.
Vote Goltar
Anyways, my suspicions we're on Goltar and the last couple of posts haven't changed my mind. Since I'm leaving out of town later today and probably won't have a chance to come back here before the day end, I'll cast my vote now.
Vote Goltar
skunkbelly
New member
Grrr. I just don't know. It's tough to vote, knowing that if we're wrong, then we lose. And it's tough *not* to vote, knowing that there's a small but real chance that the detective is still alive.
Each of us townies is thinking the same thing, I suspect: there's a 1 in 3 chance that if we pick someone, we're right. Those odds are... well, icky.
ADDITION:
OK, so a couple things bouncing around in my head now.
1. I believe Rash was mafia, and possibly the CD. I also notice, from his various summaries of previous days, that although he was quick to suspect me (a townie, though that's up to you to believe or not believe), he always seemed to think that muzzz was utterly unsuspicious in his vote counts.
2. muzzz did not vote for Rash. That seems odd, but not necessarily damning.
3. I'm still wondering about the fact that Goltar was imprisoned after a long silence by the CD, just when the going started to get tighter.
Anyway, I'll vote before I go to sleep tonight, but not just yet.
Each of us townies is thinking the same thing, I suspect: there's a 1 in 3 chance that if we pick someone, we're right. Those odds are... well, icky.
ADDITION:
OK, so a couple things bouncing around in my head now.
1. I believe Rash was mafia, and possibly the CD. I also notice, from his various summaries of previous days, that although he was quick to suspect me (a townie, though that's up to you to believe or not believe), he always seemed to think that muzzz was utterly unsuspicious in his vote counts.
2. muzzz did not vote for Rash. That seems odd, but not necessarily damning.
3. I'm still wondering about the fact that Goltar was imprisoned after a long silence by the CD, just when the going started to get tighter.
Anyway, I'll vote before I go to sleep tonight, but not just yet.
skunkbelly
New member
Well, as it turns out, I had to sleep on it.
And now I'm still completely unsure, of course.
My gut feeling is that our mafia member is still either goltar or muzzz. Can't say why I don't suspect GoHabs, but I don't really. Perhaps he's just playing very well.
One thing is clear: if I vote for muzzz, we will either have a deadlock, or GoHabs will have to change his vote. A deadlock is not a problem, if the CD is dead... but if he's alive...
Another thing is also clear: if I vote for goltar, and muzzz is mafia, then muzzz will bandwagon and the game is over.
Alas.
vote Goltar
It's my oldest suspicion that is still in play. I pray it's correct.
And now I'm still completely unsure, of course.
My gut feeling is that our mafia member is still either goltar or muzzz. Can't say why I don't suspect GoHabs, but I don't really. Perhaps he's just playing very well.
One thing is clear: if I vote for muzzz, we will either have a deadlock, or GoHabs will have to change his vote. A deadlock is not a problem, if the CD is dead... but if he's alive...
Another thing is also clear: if I vote for goltar, and muzzz is mafia, then muzzz will bandwagon and the game is over.
Alas.
vote Goltar
It's my oldest suspicion that is still in play. I pray it's correct.
I've been thinking about what might happen if today ends up no-lynch. Of course that means I'm assuming that I'm innocent, as well as Goltar (if I suspect him I should just vote). If Skunk or GoHabs are the last mafioso they could very well kill the other one and have another day of goltar vs. muzzz. I'm afraid that might work very well, although there are little guarantees with only 3 left. Of course, if the CD is alive a no-lynch loses the game.
I don't think I really like those odds. But I haven't made up my mind yet. And it's time for dinner now. I'll try to decide afterwards.
I don't think I really like those odds. But I haven't made up my mind yet. And it's time for dinner now. I'll try to decide afterwards.
