OT: The SPF Mafia Game Round Three

You're actually right. He had already changed the subject and from the context I first thought he was referring to me already. Sorry about that.

By the way, accusing people of straight-on lying in situations like this isn't exactly nice, did you know that?
 
Alright, I have reviewed day 2.

My hindsight suspicion list through day 2 is now

GoHabsGo
Jaago
Sir Lister of Smeg
water_moon
muzzz
skunkbelly
goltar25

Day 2 is when I decided Nikon might be the cop, which between today's imprisonment and the game not being over, just doesn't seem tenable or appropriate. I also was trying to get RK nightkilled, because I believed he was the witness until skoolbus cleared that up.

In the interests of saving time. my post references won't be linked, and I will provide the reasoning only upon request. Any Questions?

GoHabsGo
Pro-town: 303
Anti-town: 300, 311, 315, 363, 368, 385

Jaago
Protown: 306, 359, 373, 450
Anti-town: 256, 308

Sir Lister of Smeg
Pro-town: 323, 330, 370, 386, 407
Anti-town: 277, 354, 362, 365

water_moon
Pro-town: nope
Anti-town: 305, 396

muzzz
Pro-town: nothing
Anti-town: lurker

skunkbelly
Pro-town: 279
Anti-town: 358, 381

I repeat, any questions?
 
Jaago said:
You're actually right. He had already changed the subject and from the context I first thought he was referring to me already. Sorry about that.

By the way, accusing people of straight-on lying in situations like this isn't exactly nice, did you know that?
Click to expand...

If you don't want to be called a liar, then perhaps you ought to accurately refer to someone else's posts. If you're not mafia, don't be so suspicious. If you are, keep lying.


 
I don't mind being called a liar if I have lied. That was just a misunderstanding. Maybe we should just let it drop.

I'm not sure if the first days tell much, because there were so many distractions around. Of course there might have been some surprising things said.

Pro-town vs anti-town division is also a little dubious because many of the anti-town posts are based on misconceptions rather than being mafia. Also, a good mafia can make their anti-town posts look very much like pro-town posts.

I think things like voting patterns would reveal more about the mafia.
 
I'm looking for inconsistencies between what players posted then and now.

If you have something to say about voting patterns, by all means..
 
Rashiminos said:
Alright, I have reviewed day 2.

My hindsight suspicion list through day 2 is now

GoHabsGo
Jaago
Sir Lister of Smeg
water_moon
muzzz
skunkbelly
goltar25


I repeat, any questions?
Click to expand...

Once again, you've never been on Goltar's case that much. Why are you trying to make him look like a total innocent townie now that people might suspect him of being a protected mafia member?


 
Well said, GoHabs. This is what I've been wondering all morning (well, except when I was concentrating on my actual job, lol...).

vote Rashiminos
 
Oh, come on. I think it's obvious that mafia won't imprison any of their own when they need all the voting influence they can get so they can win today. Rash is correct in this case. There''s even less reason to vote him for that.
 
Jaago said:
Oh, come on. I think it's obvious that mafia won't imprison any of their own when they need all the voting influence they can get so they can win today. Rash is correct in this case. There''s even less reason to vote him for that.
Click to expand...

That's true if there are still three mafia alive. But what if there's only two left, and today isn't the pivotal day in their game?



 
Well since Rash and Jaago are pretty much equal on my suspect list and I'm pretty much the only person who seems to find Jaago suspicious, I'll follow Skunk and hopefully get rid of Rash today, will see about Jag tomorrow.

Unvote Jaago
Vote Rashiminos
 
I remain highly suspicious of the fact that after many, many days, the CD all of a sudden decides to imprison somebody. There has to be a reason for it.

Currently, there are 8 people alive. At least one of those is the CD, and there may also be other mafia members alive: we simply don't know.

Think about these examples:

8 people in play
3 mafia alive

If none in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 37.5%
If townie in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 42.9%
If mafia member in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 29%

Or:

8 people in play
2 mafia alive

If none in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 25%
If townie in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 29%
If mafia in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 14.3%

Or:

8 people in play
1 mafia (the CD) alive

If none in prison, % chance to lynch mafia members = 12.5%
If townie in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 14.3%

At this point in the game, it is *always* in the mafia's statistical interest to imprison one of their own members, to prevent that person from being lynched. In fact, it is in the mafia's statistical interest *throughout* the game to imprison one of their own... it just doesn't make sense strategically earlier in the game, since the chaos of a 12 or 15 player game helps to keep them safer.

This, of course, ignores other gameplay mechanics such as making good guesses or conclusions, making slip-ups, etc. It just looks at the probability of one or another player getting killed. But we need to remember: in the day, there's a chance of a mafia member dying. In the night, there's a certainty of a townie dying. That's always the case, but at this point in the game, it means that by protecting their own, the mafia can seal a victory quickly.

ADDITION: Jaago's dismissal of this idea definitely makes him suspect #3 in my book, behind Rash and Goltar.
 
skunkbelly said:
8 people in play
3 mafia alive

If none in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 37.5%
If townie in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 42.9%
If mafia member in prison, % chance to lynch mafia member = 29%
Click to expand...

If there are 3 mafia alive, they can win today if we either mislynch, or no-lynch

If we mislynch, they kill a townie tonight. Then they stalemate voting tomorrow and win.

If we no-lynch, a townie gets killed tonight and the CD imprisons another person, thus stalemating tomorrows vote and resulting in a mafia win.

So if 3 mafia are in the game: 5 in 8 chances to win (62.5% by random choice), or 4 in 7 chances to win (57.1% by random choice). However, those figures are misleading, since the mafia votes won't be random. In reality, the situation is that with 8 players eligible to be lynched, the mafia needs to convince two townies to be wrong about a third townie, and then place the last three votes in the correct window of opportunity. With only 7 players eligible to be lynched (1 imprisoned), they need only 1 villager to be wrong by the time the window of opportunity comes (near skoolbus's deadline). Now it could be that there are only 2 (or just 1 CD) mafia, but let's be cautious and deal with the 3 mafia situation first, unless you want to entertain losing strategies. It hasn't been proven that there are less than 3 mafia, don't act like it has.


 
muzzz said:
That's true if there are still three mafia alive. But what if there's only two left, and today isn't the pivotal day in their game?
Click to expand...

Let me give you proof.

Suppose there are two mafia left that are Rash and Goltar. This means that Rash is the crooked detective and so on. It also means that we have nailed one mafia member by far. S/he would thus one of the following: Jaed, Nikon, Sint, Thyiad or Moar.

You guys following me?

Now, In each lynch we have had so far Rash has voted for the lynched person, which means that he would have hit one of his own. Does that fit? Notice how tight all of the votes by far have been. From those people, Goltar has voted Jae, Nikon, Thy and Moar. Meaning that the only even remotely possible candidate for their partner in crime is Sint, whose voting was actually decided by Rash, and he didn't have to.

IMO, this makes either GoHabs or Skunk (or both) mafia but I knew that already. I'm changing my vote, it's no use voting for someone who isn't even there to protect himself.

Unvote Sir Lister of Smeg
Vote Skunkbelly

GoHabs seems to be more like a misguided sheep than a notorious criminal. Also, Skunk's reasoning is totally invalid in his post (intentionally?). He completely ignores the fact that having 3 mafia members to vote is 1 less than the amount of votes needed for lynch, i.e. it only takes one townie to be wrong for mafia to win.



 
One thing to remember: the mafia doesn't even need to convince the town to go along with them in a lynching vote... they simply have to make a deadlock during the day, then act at night. That's simple to do at this point in the game.

And a sudden vote change from Jaago, who was "Sure" about Sir Lister just this morning. I rest my case. The mafia members remaining are some combination of Rash, Jaago and Goltar. Whether it is two or three of them, I do not know. But at this point, I'm convinced. I'll get them out of our town, or die trying.

ADDITION: Jaago, the argument you're asking us to follow about Rash's voting only makes sense if there are only two mafia left, and if Goltar is in fact mafia (in which case, it's very, very good logic). If there are three remaining, then your argument is nonsense. If there are two remaining and Goltar is innocent, then your argument is nonsense.
 
Reading Jaago's post again:

You say my argument is "totally invalid" and yet you give no reason for that opinion. Back it up, please. I'll admit I'm wrong if someone can offer a reasonable counterargument.
 
skunkbelly makes a valid argument in that the mafia might try to just simply wait the day out and win tonight, and to that end they might imprison their own to lessen our chance to lynch one of them. Goltar's role is rather indeterminate at this juncture, and I'm thinking we should worry about crossing that bridge when we get to it. I think our best move is to figure out who the crooked detective is.
 
Suspicion List through day 3:

GoHabsGo
Jaago
water_moon
Sir Lister of Smeg
skunkbelly
muzzz
goltar25
Rashiminos

I voted Lister in a post by itself and lurked half the day to see what conversation would fill the void, then I presented my case against Lister.

GoHabsGo
Pro-town: nuh-uh
Anti-town: 461, 546, 560, 585

Jaago
Protown: 473
Anti-town: 465, 563, 590

water_moon
Pro-town: 495
Anti-town: 496, 598, 500, 537, 571

Sir Lister of Smeg
Pro-town: 504, 606, 608, 613
Anti-town: 477, 592

skunkbelly
Pro-town: 474, 545
Anti-town: 557,579

muzzz
Pro-town: 463, 493, 539
Anti-town: nothing!

Any Questions?
 
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