Pregunta? Can a vigi strike during the first night? I don't think so, but I may be conflating this restriction with that of the serial killer.
A vigi would certainly go a long way to explaining the deaths of mafiosi during Night 2, but we will have to add that to the two-mafia faction theory and the mafia/SK/Bus driver swap/defensive town power role theories. Or put another way ... I have no idea.
Something flubb said before we lynched him just re-emerged in my memory - he said he swapped roles, one with a severe restriction and one without (#316). Is there nothing we can do with this info to try to tease out what happened during Night 1? It's defeated my brain, but that isn't saying much.
Damn. Two deaths. I had hoped that we had reached the point where there was only one death during the night, leaving us with a single mafia to hunt down. Perhaps even no deaths, with a hypothetical doctor to save Zarniwoop.
TC is said to be fond of a role-stealer in his games - the role-stealer player chooses someone in the night and the two players trade roles. This can be a very powerful tool for the town -if the role-stealer becomes mafia, the former mafia player then becomes the role-stealer and if he so chooses, he can out the newly swapped mafia player. It does tend to create confusion though, something that this game is not short of already. I kind of hope we haven't got a role-stealer, certainly there's been no sign of one yet. Dunno.
Wait a sec: we lose two people night 2, we lynch the cop day 2, and yet you think we'd suddenly not be losing two a night??? That seems like a really odd statement.
Falcon - kimiko was a plain cop, so I believe we can trust her investigation - unless flubb had swapped Gorny for a mafioso, in which case it is possible Gorny was non-mafia. Which means that, if Noodle is telling the truth, wicked was the only mafiaoso to die that night. But there's a lot of assumptions going on there.
With all the confusion in the game, I think it would be disastrous if kimiko was actually some variety of insane cop. I'd think that insane cops would be found in very large games, where there are normal cops who are able to find out their sanity. Marahumm said that kimiko might have investigated herself to find out whether she was sane. I'm not sure, but either way we won't learn of another pro-town player from her.
kimiko also said she'd been suspicious of Gorny. I read her posts after she'd been lynched, and indeed, she did say that much on the second day. Since that suspicion was based on posts, kimiko investigated Gorny on the second night, the same night he was killed. There was a mention earlier that cops could have a one-shot vigilante kill. Did kimiko have one, and did she use it on Gorny?
That also means that since it was the second night and flubbucket was already lynched, he could no longer have had anything to do with what happened.
I'm trying to figure out the bus driver, and what flubbucket might have done on night 1 with his ability. Correct me if I'm wrong: the bus driver can switch around two people. Now, if there is a cop targeting player A, who is switched with player B, then the cop learns whether player B is guilty. Would the cop in this scenario incorrectly assume player A is guilty based on the read from player B, or would the cop learn nothing about player A and that player B is guilty, and that there is a bus driver who switched the two?
As for the idea of full role claims, I'm kind of hoping Noodle did tell us the truth the previous night. If he did, and he comes with new information from his ability, I do think we have a good chance of finding out a real bad guy today to lynch. In that case, a full role claim will probably be a good idea. For now, Noodle is the key.