OT: Mafia game

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

* For those who crave contrived explanations as to why someone is guilty, check out this quote:

Now, wouldn't it be ironic if a Bitterroot Mason taking his name from a plant giving protection against bear attacks died to a NK by Liquid_Evil, a D2 Druid fanatic where the Druid can shapeshift into a bear?...

Wikipedia needs kept out of this thread. Your analysis is a huge stretch (especially since I didn't know what bitterroot was) but also because that is simply the fictional town we're playing in that aman created. Did you forget about that?

Night descends on the sleepy little town of Bitterroot. Aman, the town's King walks casually about the streets when he spies something in the shadows. Something...or someone...plots dark and devious plans of town corruption. The mafia is back, Aman is certain of it. He lets a quiet prayer slip between his lips as he hopes the town can stand up to the sheer might of the mafiosos...

There would be no reason to say Zhao was a Bitterroot Mason if he wasn't. Having a name in the front of the standard role of Mason means that either there's enough Mason teams for a need to differintiate them with pointless adjectives OR that they have some other ability not usually granted to Masons. I can only gather that since nobody has stepped forward from Zhao's team to verify my role, they are either wanting to preserve their life to use (or continue to use) their newest ability OR, they have been modkilled and are no longer able to come forward.

I want to give the town one thing to think about regarding Liquid. If he really is not mafia, and is the Coroner, why would the mafia let him live this long???? He has a very powerful role, a role that gives him more power than any other townie. I know that if I was in a mafia faction, I would've gone after Liquid as soon as he claimed that role.

I dunno, Ray, how come you've let me live this long? Is it because I'm the easy vote every day and the town has now begun to lose faith in my role? The perfect smokescreen for you?

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I can only gather that since nobody has stepped forward from Zhao's team to verify my role, they are either wanting to preserve their life to use (or continue to use) their newest ability OR, they have been modkilled and are no longer able to come forward.

Or, because Zhao wasn't a mason. He was just a plain townie, as I discovered on Night 2, but unfortunately he was killed before I could do anything about it.

You are estimating that there were 4 mafia (two in each faction). That likely means that there were 3 masons, judging from past Mafia games. Do you really think that of the three people that were modkilled, 2 of them were masons? The odds of that happening are quite low.

The remaining masons not coming forward about Zhao is just making your lies all the more obvious.

 

[IntelligentX]

Re: OT: Mafia game

As far as the other players go, IntelligentX screams more n00bish townie the more I reread his posts (or he's just really good at looking like a n00bish townie). I still don't like people flat out claiming townie, but what can you do. Crowd Control had an early read by Bob but since I don't know him all that well it's hard for me to judge. I'm still on the fence but most likely I'll just throw my vote behind either Ray (definite mafia) or Crowd Control (possible mafia) depending on which gets weirder as the day progresses. I'm guessing Ray.

The noobish part is totally uncalled for.
I feel offended.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

Or, because Zhao wasn't a mason. He was just a plain townie, as I discovered on Night 2, but unfortunately he was killed before I could do anything about it.

You are estimating that there were 4 mafia (two in each faction). That likely means that there were 3 masons, judging from past Mafia games. Do you really think that of the three people that were modkilled, 2 of them were masons? The odds of that happening are quite low.

I'm estimating that there are only 2 masons because there's been so many problems in past games with masons role revealing and no one being able to counterclaim. Are you a stats man, Ray? If we were to put a number to those odds it would be obvious that it's far from unlikely. Do you remember how many people aman has modkilled?

@ IntelligentX- Maybe I should have said novice. Sorry if you feel offended, but what would you call someone that votes purely following others' votes and then claims they can't keep up with the pace of the game?

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

Or, because Zhao wasn't a mason. He was just a plain townie, as I discovered on Night 2, but unfortunately he was killed before I could do anything about it.

You slipped up right there, Ray. You just slipped up bigtime. How did you discover this on night 2? Were you there killing him? You'd have to "discover" that during the day like the rest of us, not at night. This is *another* hint at a night role and there's just no way that I'm buying a copclaim from you.

 

[IntelligentX]

Re: OT: Mafia game

but what would you call someone that votes purely following others' votes and then claims they can't keep up with the pace of the game?

Indecisive, at least it is much less offensive than noob. And it is not a claim, it is a truth that I cannot pick up the pace of the game. Seriously last mafia game in CF worth ~20 pages, but now it is only in the middle of the game, but it has like 25 pages already? Cmon, maybe you are professional in this, but not all of us are.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I'm not much of a stats person, but I'll appease you and run the numbers.

There were 17 people alive when Day 1 started. 3 people were modkilled. Assuming Gorny, Serdash and Spigot were not masons, the remaining 17 had a 5.88% chance of being a mason. That gives us a 17.64% chance of having one of the people modkilled be a mason.

We can even go and take the 4 mafia members out of equation. With Gorny, and either Serdash or Spigot as mafia, plus the 3 other mafia members, thats 14 alive at the start of Day 1. Let's improve the odds and include Zhao as being a mason already. We are left with a 7.69% chance of the remaining players to be a mason, 23.07% for the three modkilled.


Last time I checked, a 23.08% chance of having something happen is pretty unlikely.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I forgot to mention this in my last post.


Liquid's claim has a 23.08% chance of it being true.

Liquid_Evil's chance of being mafia is 100%.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

So roughly there's a 1/4 chance of that happening. That's what you'd call "highly unlikely"? (Actually I see in your latest post that you have dropped it to a meager "pretty unlikely")

You wrote down the odds for me but didn't follow up any further on your hints of a night role? I should have done this earlier.

Vote: Ray Patean

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

Liquid_Evil's chance of being mafia is 100%.

I see what you're doing and I hope everyone else can too. He's setting himself up for a false-cop claim.

Remember, I'm the guy that's posted substantially more than everyone else. The spotlight has been on me from the get-go. In every game I've played I've been investigated in the first 2 nights. It stands to reason that I'm a great target this game as well. Why would a cop wait to investigate me until the 3rd night this time around since there's been so much speculation about my role?

"What do you mean Liq? What does that have to do with anything?" It's because Ray has voted on my side every day up until now. I should have been investigated by the real cop on Night 2 (like always) to reveal me as a coroner. Does everyone remember that I've come 1 vote away from getting lynch locked 2 days in a row? It wouldn't have been anything for him to unvote the other guy and take me out if I was mafia. No, he kept me alive because he's mafia and needed me to continue to draw heat from all sides.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I never said it was "highly unlikely." I said the odds were quite low, which they are. Stop twisting my words to try and keep your lies going.

You talk about this spotlight being on you, except you purposely brought it on yourself. You wrote yourself into the death notes, and have been leading this town on from Day 1.

If the town wants to win this game, you must lynch the only person that is absolutely mafia.


Like I said before, I will stake my life on the fact that Liquid is mafia. If he ends up showing Coroner once lynched, I will get myself modkilled. I am that certain Liquid Evil is in the mafia.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I never said it was "highly unlikely." I said the odds were quite low, which they are. Stop twisting my words to try and keep your lies going.

Oh right, you said

The odds of that happening are quite low.

An emphasis on "quite" like that implies a dramatically low percentage. The odds are not in fact dramatically low.

You're (wrongly) likening it to winning the lottery instead of recognizing it as a very probably statistic. Put 3 red skittles into a bag with 1 green skittle. If you were to reach in and grab out one would it absolutely blow your mind if you came out with the green one? No, Ray, no it wouldn't.

You talk about this spotlight being on you, except you purposely brought it on yourself. You wrote yourself into the death notes, and have been leading this town on from Day 1.

I was mentioned in both notes. Am I working both sides of the mafia groups? You're starting to reach Ray...

Like I said before, I will stake my life on the fact that Liquid is mafia. If he ends up showing Coroner once lynched, I will get myself modkilled.

Didn't I already make this same wager like a page ago?

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I have an idea for you Liquid. Why don't you post a screenshot of your PM from Aman telling your role? You mentioned you would do that earlier in the game, if not for fear of dying. Why not sacrifice yourself for the good of the town? By your counts, there are only two mafia left, both in Murder Inc.

If you are in fact the coroner, I'll kill myself. This, according to you, would leave the town with 1 mafia left, and 6 people that are pro-town. Now, those are good odds for the town to win.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

Killing myself if you're not mafia (which you are) and posting a screenshot of my role are apples and oranges. One is a loophole in the game (that's arguably in poor taste to exploit) while the other is pure cheating. Still, I'll consider it if that's what the town wants but am absolutely positive it's gonna land me mod-killed with no guarantee that you will die. Seems like a really poor deal for me.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

You totally ignored this post. I'd like some answers.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

You're just upset that you didn't pull the screenshot idea on me first. It would guarantee I'd die, because the town would come and lynch me.....or your mafia partner would, because I'd no longer be of any use.

I brought it up because it would be in the best interest of the town. Proof that you're lying would just be an added bonus.


As for Post #265, how did I slip up? I said nothing there that I did not mean to say. You may not believe my claim, but the rest of the townies know their own roles, and every single one of them know that they aren't the cop.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

You may not believe my claim, but the rest of the townies know their own roles, and every single one of them know that they aren't the cop.

I'm a little slow Ray. Are you telling us that you're mafia and have killed the cop? Or are you telling us that you're the cop because you know no one else is?

If you're the cop, just come out with it. (You aren't. It's still too early for the real cop and aman isn't so cold as to modkill the town's greatest asset so I have no doubts you're a liar) These cryptic hints only serve to make you more suspicious. Please, enlighten me Ray and quit beating around the bush. If you have something to say, say it, otherwise you're looking guiltier every post.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

I am now the Cop. I was initially the Deputy, which is a backup cop. However, once Thyiad died, I took over her duty as Cop. I was informed of her investigations, and have now assumed her role.

This is why Thyiad so vehemently went after Liquid. She investigated him on Night 1, and tried to get him lynched each day after that. Liquid got lucky that the other mafia faction went after her on Night 3. Liquid claimed that she was just a townie after she was killed because he wanted to discredit her attempts to get him lynched. I had originally believed what Liquid was saying, until last night, when I learned the truth.

Liquid Evil is mafia, and a member of Murder Inc. His claim about being the Coroner is false. I just hope that Nolecub was some sort of modified doctor (like the paranoid cop), and the real doctor is out there, because Liquid and his Murder Inc. cronies are surely going to come after me tonight.

 

[Liquid_Evil]

Re: OT: Mafia game

Very convenient to say the least. That claim definitely sounds six shades of believable.

You picked out one of my antagonists and branded them as a cop to try and explain away your votes on my side. Your story doesn't make sense because if she investigated me the 1st night (which is a convenient 1st night pick) then why did she say this during the 1st day?

I don't believe Liq is actually mafia

Real cops leave hints so if they're killed, their results wouldn't be lost.

Nolecub couldn't be a modified doctor because Aman tells us the real roles. Wishful thinking disguised as some foreshadowing?

Your whole story is too convenient.

 

[Ray Patean]

Re: OT: Mafia game

Convenient, just like your name appearing in the notes, and you immediately coming in and saying "zomg, can't be me, i'm being framed!"


This whole day has been Liquid and I going back and forth. Anyone else care to chime in? There's still people that haven't posted, and the day is more than halfway over.