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Vessel of Hatred

MF - is it date dependant?

T

TenYearsGone

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Jun 24, 2003
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MF - is it date dependant?

DAMN Squid ate my Thread!

Anyway, what did I type before...

Oh yeah, MF... This is more of an observation than anything else but it seems to me that MF luck may be date dependant. I've just seen way too many coincidences.

For example, about a month ago I found my first Spired Helm. I go to post it in the Find Item Thread and lo and behold, someone else has found a Spired Helm. I haven't seen a post of one since. This past weekend I found a Laquered Plate. Same thing, someone else found one. Sacred Armors (mostly Green) seem to have multiple finding on the same day (not by me though). Anyway, with my own items, I've seen this happen 4-5 times and I haven't found that many uber items. Recently one of our fellow forumites found the elusive Zod (sorry, I can't remember his name). It makes me want to change the date on my computer and do WSK runs (not that I would - I'm too lazy!).

I've seen it posted on these forums that the random number generator comes from the time stamp, but how much of that comes from the date vs. the time/seconds?

What do you guys think? Is there something to this?
 
There is something to this... it's called "Gambler's Paradox". You see... (lecture mode) Human beings evolved to recognize patterns. We became the dominant lifeform on this rock by simply being able to recognize patterns better than any of the other species. So when confronted by something completely random (or better said, unpredictable) we seak patterns it. Once we discover an apparent pattern, our minds seek that pattern out excluding all the "noise" of things that don't fit the pattern. It's natural. It's part of being human.

It the same reason the phone seems to ring when you're in the shower, but when you turn it off it stops. You brain is detecting the pattern refered to as a ringing phone in the noises that the shower is making, and excludes the other tones from it's analysis... so it's the shower ringing and not the phone.

You'll find many other patterns in the drops in Diablo, and posting them here is a lot of fun.
 
I found three sacred armors last sunday. One white, a 3, and a 4 sock. Never seen one drop before that I remember. Although maybe I wasn't paying attention, but I think I'd remember if I'd never seen it drop. lol

Also, going off the post above mine, more of those "the phone only rings when I'm in the car" type of things is more related to you remembering it only when it rings in the car because it's so annoying. It rings at many other times too, but ringing in the car (because you have to dig it out of your pocket and that's annoying when you're on the freeway) is when it's most memorable, so it tends to be the only times you remember.
 
The shower thing is real. Your mind can pick out what ever sound it's expecting to hear from white noise. The phone isn't really ringing, your mind just thinks it is. Same is true for people who hear voices when watching a static filled TV. There are no demons in your television, there's only your mind hearing what it expects to burried in the random sounds being produced by the static. I speak from personal experience here, after teaching physics of sound for many years (not that I hear demons in my TV).
 
So to be pedantically precise, the date does affect MF, but only in so far as the millisecond timestamp is used as the random seed when you start a new game. Any influence it has will be lost in the random process almost immediately though.

It is mostly coincidence as Shags observed. Also, rather less coincidental forum psychology. Someone posts that they found something, you then find the same thing, you are far more likely to post it yourself.
 
Thrugg said:
It is mostly coincidence as Shags observed. Also, rather less coincidental forum psychology. Someone posts that they found something, you then find the same thing, you are far more likely to post it yourself.
Click to expand...

And so you do not necessarily remember when joe blow found a spired helm because you did not find one on the same day. I think he had said he found one and after came to the boards. He would be much more likely to then notice that joe blow also found the same thing.

In a somewhat similar train of thought, it's much the same way that people can complain about someone else not using a blinker, yet they are not realizing that they too neglect to use their blinker. They don't notice their lack of blinkerage, because it does not infuriate them.

People are very self-centered. They don't notice something until it directly impacts them, and then they wonder where the heck it came from, even though it was there all the time...but it wasn't significant.

*babble*
 
I understand what you are all saying with the cocktail party effect or pattern recongnition. I definately didn't notice this in 1.09, but then again drops weren't as good. I guess no one else has noticed this at all and I'm just a crazy old man.

BTW I never hear the phone ring in the shower, but that's because my imaginary friend makes me wear ear plugs.
 
Shagsbeard said:
There is something to this... it's called "Gambler's Paradox". You see... (lecture mode) Human beings evolved to recognize patterns. We became the dominant lifeform on this rock by simply being able to recognize patterns better than any of the other species. So when confronted by something completely random (or better said, unpredictable) we seak patterns it. Once we discover an apparent pattern, our minds seek that pattern out excluding all the "noise" of things that don't fit the pattern. It's natural. It's part of being human.

It the same reason the phone seems to ring when you're in the shower, but when you turn it off it stops. You brain is detecting the pattern refered to as a ringing phone in the noises that the shower is making, and excludes the other tones from it's analysis... so it's the shower ringing and not the phone.

You'll find many other patterns in the drops in Diablo, and posting them here is a lot of fun.
Click to expand...
I like a good old paradox. dont forget to pick up your lectures glasses and jacket on your way out tonight.
anyway, in reality, the RNG is what it says it is. random. much like how a drunk person will randomly say stuff, you may look for reasons and patterns, but its useless looking.
 
I've had too many "sprees", more of one rare item dropping in a very short period, then "never" seeing it again, to totally rule out the "date" (more a "moment") theory.

I've had three (Yup, count them....) shaftstops drop, almost in a row (six runs, I think), two Wiz' Spikes in three runs, and the same happened with ribcracker and (Yay!) Mara's. Only found two, but they were within four runs of each other. This all, btw in 1.09. And me not being the most proficient MFer of all times. By any definition.....

I think there is something to it, but it is a much shorter period than a "day". And also very map, and "route" dependant. So if you find an exceptionally good item, don't lose time, repeat the run ASAP, using the same route- and maybe get lucky!
 
An alternative theory is once you find your uber item, you have to stand in your nearest street, hold 1 hand directly up in the air and say in a loud voice 'i worship thee, Oh great gods of diablo, and request that you bestow me with this continued fortune' at which point you make your usual lamb sacrifice to please your gods, then continue playing D2. i have heard this works.
 
Of course I had moments that the same item dropped within 1 or 2 runs, but its more common by far that if an item drops, you won't see it for a looooong time, just like it is supposed to in a random distribution.
 
Racks do seem to leave the same type of item every time, though (I guess that's what makes/made rack running so popular). During my Sorc's Countess runs there was a weapon rack on the third floor that would, nine times out of ten, drop a Divine Sceptre of some kind, either white, socketed, magical, etc., and an armour rack in one of the gold rooms on the fifth floor that would leave me a Shako almost every time. I'm sure there's some reason for it, as it seems much more preset than it is random, so I would think that if you take the same path every time you may be more likely to get a certain item type to drop. *shrugs*

~Wolfgang
 
I've not had the same item drop consecutively, but I do have weird bouts of good luck. Last night I found laying of hands, nat's boots, string of ears, and one other thing I can't quite remember all in about 10 meph runs. But then I'll go a couple of days without finding anything good at all. I hate you RNG! :lol:

*edit - Oh it was Aldur's Gaze on a pindy run. Great night last night. I guess the next couple will suck. lol
 
racks are different than monster drops because their base item drop is determined by the map seed at the time that the map is generated. this means that they will often drop the same item. in earlier versions of the game, racks had a very high qlvl for their drops, so they could drop almost any item in the game. this is exploited in rack-running, since you know that you can always get a sacred armor to drop, its just a matter of hitting that same rack a few thousand times and you're going to eventually get what you seek.
 
I don't think it is date dependant. My mf runs on Battlenet were completely random. I'd get good days, bad days, terrible days and some very good days. I would highly daut that they'd insert a whole different method into single player.

Someone said it above and I think he/she tells the truth when they say that most people may not have found them on the same day, at the same time but when they see someone else saying they found 'xxx' and then they get praise it makes the mind think about the fact that you'd get praise aswell if you said you found 'xxx' aswell.

To put it simple: I don't think it is date dependant at all.
 
*lol*@ FB.

Seriously, though. I've had too many identical uniques/sets items drop within minutes, and never after that, to think it entirely accidental.

And I don't sacrifice lambs, as they make good eatin'....
 
LowLander said:
And I don't sacrifice lambs, as they make good eatin'....
Click to expand...

So... you can eat after you sacrificed it right? the whole point of the sacrifice is the blood and the killing i think. It's not as if the great gods of diablo actually need nourishment... the idea of the sacrifice is what counts... after that you can eat it all you want i think..
would be a waste of a nice lamb to let it rot away... hmmmm Shoarma :drool:
 
A common misconception about mf is that the day, and exact time does matter. You see, good items will drop only every other day, or hour. Remember those 8 hours you squeeze in between mf runs everyday? That's when all the good stuff drops, so you'll have to reorganize your schedule a bit.

edit: typo!!! :thanks:
 
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