LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over) ifra

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Yes, but I should find out how to post those first... never really cared about that. But I take picks from all good drops.
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Congrats on the Lo! Looks like a new pattern which is great. I was loosing motivation fast on LK P3 runs last night as after 2 hours I only had a shael and one skiller to show for my time. This motivates me to keep going!

Edit: Post the screenshot on imageshak or another hosting sight and link it here with the URL tags.
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Hi peeps.
I just wanted to know how do you keep track of your runs?
Do you use a program or simply count them on paper? (or maybe know that you do X runs per hour or some estimation like that).
Thanks for your help :)
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Arrrgh! On /players 4 actually, just for stylepoints and out of pure boredom.

Now, the game is STILL running.

Tadaaaa!

Screenie taken. Now what. Ah! Actually to grab the rune goddamn it!

uf .. now I have to alttab the game back and NOT to click save and exit, otherwise I will shoot myself.

Ok, done. Anyway Im writing complete bullpoo, but I dont know how to brag .. and .. it was really strange feeling, I did not uderstand it fully on the first look, just red rune dropped AND I knew something big happened but it took me like 5 tries to actually handle the fact, that it is NOT eth, NOR eld, nor anything else with E in it and three letters but BER.

Its actually a bit stupid, because my second highest rune is PUL ... I dont know what to do with it, now when it dropped. After my restart I was looking forward to this all the time (actually, my bet for first HR was VEX, as it is somehow sexy name) and now I feel ... well ... clueless. :crazyeyes:
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Code:
Rune Item#1              Item#2              Item#3              Item#4              Poster
Io
-    Ballista            Long Sword          Sabre               Small Crescent      Neck Romancer
-    Broad Axe           Gauntlets           Military Pick       Serpentskin Armor   Neck Romancer
-    Casque              Demonhide Sash      Double Axe          Full Helm           Phosheez
-    Crossbow            Tulwar                                                      Phosheez
-    Falchion            Giant Axe           Wire Fleece                             Neck Romancer
-    Falchion            Giant Axe           Wire Fleece                             Phosheez
-    Hatchet Hands       War Javelin                                                 Phosheez
-    Sacred Globe                                                                    Neck Romancer

Lum
-    Ceremonial Javelin                                                              Cygnus
-    Composite Bow       Ghost Armor         Trelissed Armor                         Phosheez
-    Glaive              Militairy Axe       Ring                Sallet              Neck Romancer
-    Glaive              Militairy Axe       Ring                Sallet              Phosheez
-    Gothic Axe                                                                      Phosheez

Ko
-    Ceremonial Javelin  Large Shield                                                wwzerozeroone
-    Chu-Ko-Nu           Greater Claws       Scissors Quhab      War Axe             Neck Romancer
-    Sacred Globe        Shadow Bow          Short Siege Bow

Fal
-    Cudgel              Light Belt          Siege Crossbow      Tulwar              Neck Romancer
-    Light Plate                                                                     Phosheez
-    Short Spear         War Dart                                                    Neck Romancer
-    Short Spear         War Dart                                                    Antonio

Lem
-    Broad Sword                                                                     Neck Romancer
-    Broad Sword                                                                     Phosheez
-    Fascia              Gnarled Staff       Helm                                    Phosheez
-    Ring                                                                            Phosheez

Pul
-    Gargoyle Head                                                                   Neck Romancer
-    Great Axe           Short battle bow    Jewel                                   DX

Um
-    Battle Axe          Gilded Shield       Great Maul          Pilum               Nightfind
-    Bec-De-Corbin                                                                   Neck Romancer
-    Cedar Bow           Scale Mail          War Sword                               Phosheez
-    Cedar Bow           Scale Mail          War Sword                               Broncobiv2
-    Flamberge           Hunters Bow                                                 RIP     

Mal
-

Ist
-    Glaive                                                                          Bobthewarrior
-    Glaive                                                                          wwzerozeroone
-    Glaive                                                                          Antonio
-    Repeating Crossbow                                                              Helx

Gul
-    Large Charm                                                                     Reborn2k
-    Large Charm                                                                     Broncobiv2

Vex
-

Ohm
-

Lo
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Phosheez
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Reborn2k
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    erics
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Neck Romancer

Sur
-    War Hammer          Battle Axe                                                  Neck Romancer
-    War Hammer          Battle Axe                                                  Pyrohemia
-    War Hammer                                                                      forbiddenorc

Ber
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Fishpowered
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Neck Romancer

I added a bunch of combinations that I hadn't bothered to add to the list. I had some others too but if two other people already posted it then I didn't bother to add it to the list because it was already verified. I also alphabetized everything too.
Fal Rune
Lem Rune
Io Rune
Lem Rune
Lum Rune
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Ok, a table update. Since LUM just dropped for me with new pattern, also I fill in a IO pattern discovered by me some time ago and my shiny metal BER. That is not new set, but hey, its BER :crazyeyes:

io on /p3, lum and ber on /p4 (if it makes any difference)

Code:
Rune Item#1              Item#2              Item#3              Item#4              Poster
Io
-    Ballista            Long Sword          Sabre               Small Crescent      Neck Romancer
-    Broad Axe           Gauntlets           Military Pick       Serpentskin Armor   Neck Romancer
-    Casque              Demonhide Sash      Double Axe          Full Helm           Phosheez
-    Crossbow            Tulwar                                                      Phosheez
-    Falchion            Giant Axe           Wire Fleece                             Neck Romancer
-    Falchion            Giant Axe           Wire Fleece                             Phosheez
-    Hatchet Hands       War Javelin                                                 Phosheez
-    Sacred Globe                                                                    Neck Romancer
-    Scale Mail                                                                      Skiff
Lum
-    Ceremonial Javelin                                                              Cygnus
-    Composite Bow       Ghost Armor         Trelissed Armor                         Phosheez
-    Glaive              Militairy Axe       Ring                Sallet              Neck Romancer
-    Glaive              Militairy Axe       Ring                Sallet              Phosheez
-    Gothic Axe                                                                      Phosheez
-    Small Charm         Giant Sword                                                 Skiff

Ko
-    Ceremonial Javelin  Large Shield                                                wwzerozeroone
-    Chu-Ko-Nu           Greater Claws       Scissors Quhab      War Axe             Neck Romancer
-    Sacred Globe        Shadow Bow          Short Siege Bow

Fal
-    Cudgel              Light Belt          Siege Crossbow      Tulwar              Neck Romancer
-    Light Plate                                                                     Phosheez
-    Short Spear         War Dart                                                    Neck Romancer
-    Short Spear         War Dart                                                    Antonio

Lem
-    Broad Sword                                                                     Neck Romancer
-    Broad Sword                                                                     Phosheez
-    Fascia              Gnarled Staff       Helm                                    Phosheez
-    Ring                                                                            Phosheez

Pul
-    Gargoyle Head                                                                   Neck Romancer
-    Great Axe           Short battle bow    Jewel                                   DX

Um
-    Battle Axe          Gilded Shield       Great Maul          Pilum               Nightfind
-    Bec-De-Corbin                                                                   Neck Romancer
-    Cedar Bow           Scale Mail          War Sword                               Phosheez
-    Cedar Bow           Scale Mail          War Sword                               Broncobiv2
-    Flamberge           Hunters Bow                                                 RIP     

Mal
-

Ist
-    Glaive                                                                          Bobthewarrior
-    Glaive                                                                          wwzerozeroone
-    Glaive                                                                          Antonio
-    Repeating Crossbow                                                              Helx

Gul
-    Large Charm                                                                     Reborn2k
-    Large Charm                                                                     Broncobiv2

Vex
-

Ohm
-

Lo
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Phosheez
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Reborn2k
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    erics
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Neck Romancer

Sur
-    War Hammer          Battle Axe                                                  Neck Romancer
-    War Hammer          Battle Axe                                                  Pyrohemia
-    War Hammer                                                                      forbiddenorc

Ber
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Fishpowered
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Neck Romancer
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Skiff
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Should Pavel's new Lo pattern be added? By the way, statistically, a 2nd Lo pattern seems fairly unlikely -- Pavel are you absolutely certain you were on /players 3 or 4?
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

How many different patterns should be expected if the drop generator was not truncated? Since we are talking small numbers, statistical fluctations happen.
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

How many different patterns should be expected if the drop generator was not truncated? Since we are talking small numbers, statistical fluctations happen.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but I remember some numbers saying Ber's odds were 1/200,000 roughly. That makes it a lucky drop in LK but without truncation there would be around 20,000 different drops.

And yes, for these very small numbers (64K drops) the odds are only mildly relevant, a second Lo is just as likely as any other drop Gul and higher.



 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Should Pavel's new Lo pattern be added? By the way, statistically, a 2nd Lo pattern seems fairly unlikely -- Pavel are you absolutely certain you were on /players 3 or 4?

It may be unlikely, but nonetheless possible. For example, in the RoF thread (shameless self-promotion ;)) there are already 3 known pattern for Vex and 2 for Sur on /players 7/8 (the 2nd not added to the table yet...will have to do that sometime).
So if there are 2 patterns for Lo, 1 for Ber, 1 for Sur and 1 for Gul... --> p3 pwns p8 :p



 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

In fact, it might tip the balance in favor of LK against HF rushing, as it is .25 Ber.
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I don't have the numbers in front of me but I remember some numbers saying Ber's odds were 1/200,000 roughly. That makes it a lucky drop in LK but without truncation there would be around 20,000 different drops.

And yes, for these very small numbers (64K drops) the odds are only mildly relevant, a second Lo is just as likely as any other drop Gul and higher.

I've actually been thinking about the whole LK probability thing for a while. In actuality, I think the odds are worse due to locked chests. Personally, the highest rune I have ever found from a locked chest is Mal. I have no idea however, how many combinations are added once you factor in whether or not the chest is locked or not. Yeah, the odds are 1:~11000 for any specific pattern per run, but I believe that doesn't take into account any locked chests. Thoughts, hopefully that rambling is somewhat decipherable? My point is that it will take more than 11k runs to find X hr, assuming said hr only has one drop possibility, because of the existence of locked chests, but I do not know however how many combinations are actually added factoring them in.



 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

This is my understanding about the comparison between p3 and p8 LK runs, please correct me if I'm wrong:

P8, known patterns: 1 Ber, 1 Sur, 1 Vex, 2 Ist. Roughly the same amount of jewels and gems, more charms. Better chance of finding high runes from random objects.

P3, known patterns: 1 Ber, 1 Sur, 2 Lo, 1 Gul, 2 Ist. Roughly the same amount of jewels and gems, fewer charms. Worse chance of finding high runes from random objects.

Based on what we know, is this accurate?
 
Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I've actually been thinking about the whole LK probability thing for a while. I think the odds are worse due to locked chests. Personally, the highest rune I have ever found from a locked chest is Mal. I have no idea however, how many combinations are added once you factor in whether or not the chest is locked or not.

Mmmm. The thing is, if you look at the extensive data on /p8 runs, and look at the numbers for the mid runes (say Io - Lem), they seem to match the predictions for 65,536 patterns. You are saying locked chests add more patterns? I'm not sure it really would... and I don't see how it would mesh with the observations for the mid runes. We do know that once a magical item is chosen to drop, no more runes can drop.

Wouldn't a locked chest just add one more drop at the end of the drops? And wouldn't that practically always be in the magical section then? Could this reconcile data such as the Sur drops, two of which list War Hammer + Battle Axe, while the other lists War Hammer only? Maybe the lack of Battle Axe being listed wasn't just sloppyness or oversight, but it simply was never there because it was a difference in locked/unlocked chest? This possibility can also be observed in the /p8 list for Pul (Moar), and Io (Atil). On the other hand, the more-item drops seem to outweigh the less-item drops, and that wouldn't make sense from a locked/unlocked ratio standpoint...



 
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