LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over) ifra

[Grisu]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Yay! Actually this might suck me back to LK running isntead of RoF...or maybe I should try RoF on p3? Anyways, I think it's great what you guys found out so far! Keep up the good work!:thumbup:

And who knows, maybe on p1 all HRs can drop?:scratchchin::crazyeyes:

 

[nepeta]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

It's because players 8 can't drop a Lo.

*

It is improbable that players 8 will drop a Lo.

*

Induction isn't all Dogmatism > progress. The P3 project has just demonstrated it.

 

[Fishpowered]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Yay! Actually this might suck me back to LK running isntead of RoF...or maybe I should try RoF on p3?

That's what I'm thinking about right now. The monsters are taking forever to kill on higher player settings. But on the other hand, considering the progress in the RoF chests thread, p7 still seems a bit more tempting to me :wink:

 

[Nightfind]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Rune Item#1              Item#2              Item#3              Item#4              Poster
Io
-    Crossbow            Tulwar                                                      Phosheez

Lum
-    Composite Bow       Ghost Armor         Trelissed Armor                         Phosheez
-    Ceremonial Javelin                                                              Cygnus

Ko
-    Ceremonial Javelin  LQ Large Shield                                             wwzerozeroone

Fal
-

Lem
-

Pul
-

Um
-    Cedar Bow           Scale Mail          War Sword                               Phosheez
-    Battle Axe         Gilded Shield       Great Maul          Pilum                Nightfind

Mal
-

Ist
-    Glaive                                                                          wwzerozeroone

Gul
-    Large Charm                                                                     Reborn2k

Vex
-

Ohm
-

Lo
-     Balanced Axe                                                                   Phosheez
-     Balanced Axe                                                                   Reborn2k
-     Balanced Axe                                                                   erics

Sur
-     War Hammer          Battle Axe                                                 Neck Romancer

Ber
-     Hawk Helm                                                                      Fishpowered
-     Hawk Helm                                                                      Neck Romancer

Found a new UM rune pattern

 

[Neck Romancer1]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Rune Item#1              Item#2              Item#3              Item#4              Poster
Io
-    Crossbow            Tulwar                                                      Phosheez
-    Falchion            Giant Axe           Wire Fleece                             Neck Romancer
-    Sacred Globe                                                                    Neck Romancer
-    Broad Axe           Gauntlets           Military Pick       Serpentskin Armor   Neck Romancer
-    Ballista            Long Sword          Sabre               Small Crescent      Neck Romancer

Lum
-    Composite Bow       Ghost Armor         Trelissed Armor                         Phosheez
-    Ceremonial Javelin                                                              Cygnus
-    Glaive              Militairy Axe       Ring                Sallet              Neck Romancer

Ko
-    Ceremonial Javelin  LQ Large Shield                                             wwzerozeroone
-    Chu-Ko-Nu           Greater Claws       Scissors Quhab      War Axe             Neck Romancer
-    Sacred Globe        Shadow Bow          Short Siege Bow

Fal
-    Short Spear         War Dart                                                    Neck Romancer
-    Cudgel              Light Belt          Tulwar              Siege Crossbow      Neck Romancer

Lem
-    Broad Sword                                                                     Neck Romancer

Pul
-    Gargoyle Head                                                                   Neck Romancer

Um
-    Cedar Bow           Scale Mail          War Sword                               Phosheez
-    Battle Axe          Gilded Shield       Great Maul          Pilum               Nightfind
-    Bec-De-Corbin                                                                   Neck Romancer

Mal
-

Ist
-    Glaive                                                                          wwzerozeroone

Gul
-    Large Charm                                                                     Reborn2k

Vex
-

Ohm
-

Lo
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Phosheez
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    Reborn2k
-    Balanced Axe                                                                    erics

Sur
-    War Hammer          Battle Axe                                                  Neck Romancer

Ber
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Fishpowered
-    Hawk Helm                                                                       Neck Romancer

I think this is about it.

Io Runes:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3IoRune3.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3IoRune5.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3IoRune6.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3IoRune7.jpg

Lum Runes:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3LumRune2.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3LumRune3.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3LumRune4.jpg

Ko Runes:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/KoRune.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3KoRune.jpg

Fal Runes:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3FalRune3-1.jpg
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3FalRune4-1.jpg

Lem Rune:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3LemRune.jpg

Pul Rune:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/LKP3PulRune.jpg

Um Rune:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p307/Source-Era/UmRune.jpg

 

[skiffcz]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Hello there! Just "started" (100 or so runs so far) /players3 LK runs and after some boredom on /players8 switched back to /p3 and was rewarded

KO rune with shadow bow, sacred globe, short siege bow and arrows. It has been already discovered.

Not much but it made me so happy and Ill definately spend some more time here after this. Found great map and need PGems to roll skillers anyway.

EDIT: haha, and found SOL for which I am actually looking for (for my merc DR) at next campfire. Getting even more excited about this "LK" running thingie:thumbsup:

Ok EDIT2:
IO Rune like 4 runs later with new pattern - Scale Mail only ... Since Im not skilled with code tag, Ill let someone else to add it, like someone who confirms this pattern later.

EDIT3:
Does it really work like this? First 150 or so (maybe a bit more) runs (40 of them on p8) were max Eth, now next 100 netted me KO, IO and PUL Rune. Along with Gargoyle head. I will pick it up and post its fingerprint if someone collects them.. here:

Gargoyle Head of Spikes
Defense: 16
Chance to Block: 35%
Durability: 19 of 20
(Necromancer Only)
Required Strength: 20
Required Level: 15
Unidentified
Item Version: 1.10+ Expansion
Item Level: 80
Fingerprint: 0x24315a7f
Adds 2-7 poison damage over 3 seconds
Attacker Takes Damage of 6

 

[Moosashi]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I think this might be my first post in the SPF. I started playing SP recently to kill time this summer. Anyway, I've found this and the other LK thread very informative.

I found BER yesterday on players 8 after probably about 500 runs (usual assortment of other items). Today, LO dropped on players 3 with the typical balanced axe after 225 runs.

After looking over people's reports of the number of runs they've done to get high rune X and judging by my own experience, I think the notion of their being ~65500 equally probable chest drops may be incorrect. Most people seem to get their rune (BER on players 8; LO on players 3) after 2 to 3 thousand runs. In my case, it was only a few hundred for each. If I've done the math right, you have a 50% chance of NOT getting a particular high rune in 7550 runs (assuming 6 chests a run). Assuming ~3 high runes per players setting, you have a 50% chance of NOT getting any in ~2500 runs.

The observation that 2-3 thousand runs seems to be the upper limit on the number people have to do before finding the rune of their choice coupled with the apparent fact that certain high runes seem to be much more common than others at a certain player setting (e.g. BER vs. VEX on p8) suggests to me that some chest drops may be more common than others. Of course, we could be getting improbably lucky, or there is a reporting bias, or my sense of things is just off.

Thoughts?

 

[Greebo]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I think there are people who have not found a Sur or Ber in 11k p8 LK runs. They just don't post in the thread, cause it's a little silly to say 'I haven't found X in Y runs in LK find thread'. (I don't remember who it was, but someone told me about the 11k streak in an MP game)

I also think your math does not take into account 6 chests per run, but I might be wrong here.


--Greebo

 

[DarkChaos1]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

@Moosashi: My thoughts are that you are wrong. For example, I've done around 40 000 p7 runs in my d2 time and only have ever found 1 Ber, 1 Vex, 1 Ist in LK, although on average you "should" expect to find 1 Ber, 1 Sur, 1 Vex, and 1 Ist every 11,000 runs.

It's really just luck - some people get lucky and find a couple of high runes within 2000 runs but others take longer. Funnily enough, the Ist and Vex came within the first 500 or 1000, but I found nothing for >35,000 runs after that until the Ber.

To contribute to this thread, I've taken to doing p3 runs and so far completed maybe around 1000-1500 in the past few days, I found an Um that matches the War Sword, Cedar Bow, Scale Mail pattern.

 

[Swordslash]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

If we can get 20 people doing 100 /p3 LK runs a day, every month we will have another 60,000 data points. Confirmation of the available runes should be apparent very quickly then...

 

[Moosashi]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I think there are people who have not found a Sur or Ber in 11k p8 LK runs. They just don't post in the thread, cause it's a little silly to say 'I haven't found X in Y runs in LK find thread'. (I don't remember who it was, but someone told me about the 11k streak in an MP game)

Bias in reporting is definitely a possibility (and if you follow this thread, report your negative results!), but even a streak of 11k runs should not be unusual, as half the time someone does ~8k runs (48,000 chests) they should find nothing (0.9999847^45303chests = 50% prob no rune)

I also think your math does not take into account 6 chests per run, but I might be wrong here.

It does.

My thoughts are that you are wrong. For example, I've done around 40 000 p7 runs in my d2 time and only have ever found 1 Ber, 1 Vex, 1 Ist in LK, although on average you "should" expect to find 1 Ber, 1 Sur, 1 Vex, and 1 Ist every 11,000 runs.

Assuming one chest type per high rune (including IST), the probability of finding 4 high runes in 11,000 runs should be 1.568% (66,000 choose 4). Getting one of each is a much much lower probability. Each run is independent, so you don't expect to see all 65,500 outcomes in 11,000 runs.

Your personal stats are more reasonable given the equiprobable outcome hypothesis. You had a 21% chance of finding exactly 3 high runes in 240,000 chests. And actually a 70% chance of finding 3 or more, though better than a 50% of finding 3 or fewer. Your story should be typical, but it seems like luck as 'bad' as yours is unusual. Perhaps it isn't and people are keeping it to themselves. But if it took most people ten thousand runs to get a rune or two, my guess is that there wouldn't be a thread about it. If you're taking about 30 seconds a run, that's 83 hours of playing time, which makes LK running almost hopeless. Also, if it is the case that failed LK runners just don't speak up about it, then those who have found runes are at the extreme tail of the distribution, which means there would have to be orders of magnitudes more people who follow the thread, run LK thousands of times, and find nothing. Who are all these people?

 

[Kanonfutter]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I think bias has a lot to do with the reporting. While I have not run more than I guess 500 runs, I have nothing to show, and nothing to report. Also, if people are getting 50% chance of finding any HR in 2500 runs, then it is not surprising people should show up with their newly found rune after a number of runs in that ballpark. And I am quite certain that any rune above Gul is a favorite rune.

What probably happens is that a lot of people run LK for a while, thousand or ten thousand runs, and then quit with nothing to show. Lets imagine a player who if he kept running to 20000 will find a HR, but stops at 10000. He will then not report the find that would be in the bulk of the distribution. After all, this thread has a very high post:view ratio.

 

[jjscud]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Who are all these people?

Corrupted, Colorless Green, and myself to name a few.

We're certainly out there. Off the top of my head I would say we're well over 50K runs with a single Ber between us. That was mine and it took about 19K runs to get. I don't think any of us have seen Sur from LK. Add DC's numbers to those and the 4 of us are very close to 100K runs without seeing a Sur.

There simply isn't any real evidence that some drops are more likely than others. Just some people get luckier than others, and the luckier your get the more likely you are to post about it.

 

[Moosashi]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Makes sense. I guess I'll count myself improbably lucky to get Ber and Lo in two short sittings.

Question: do all superchests in the game have that 65,500 distribution? Does anyone run an A5 chest for ZOD?

 

[jjscud]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Question: do all superchests in the game have that 65,500 distribution? Does anyone run an A5 chest for ZOD?

There are two different types of "superchests". Sparkly Chests and Special Chests.

Sparkly Chests do not appear to exhibit the same behavior (no matching drops have ever been found) but they are found in Act 5.

All Special Chests that have been studied appear to have the same limited drops BUT no one has ever found any Special Chests in Act 5 and many have looked.

There are however 2 or 3 special chests in the RoF in Act 4 that can potentialy drop Jah and Cham. The RoF can be a bit hairy and no-one's found more than 3 chests in a single map (most maps have none) so its still very iffy if they are more efficient. If they are it would only be for Cham and cubing a Zod.

 

[jrlafrance]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I don't have all my resources here in front of me, but doesn't the chest the Bonesaw Breaker gaurds have the chance for Zod? I don't know if it Sparkly or Special though. Please correct me if I'm wrong. :thumbup:

 

[Antonio]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

That chest has a golden hue, so it should be sparkly chest, or am I mistaken?

 

[jjscud]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Correct, it sparkles and is therefore a sparkly chests. :thumbup:

And yes, it most certainly can drop Zod but all evidence points to its odds NOT being aided by a small seed so Zod would still be super rare. Cubing runes from LK chests would still be a better source of a Zod.

 

[Moosashi]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

Correct, it sparkles and is therefore a sparkly chests. :thumbup:

I don't think this is correct. I've run the "sparkly" chest in Halls of the Dead 100+ times and the items were only ever all magical or all rare. That chest is identical in appearance to the one on Bonesaw's platform (looks like the Ark of the Covenant from Raiders of the Lost Ark). I never found any set/unique/low quality items from that one either, but I haven't run it much and others may have. IIRC, the sparkly chest in the Icy Cellar looks like the ones in the other acts, just a chest that sparkles. But again, after ~50 runs, the distribution of magical/rare drops was identical to a normal Special Chest a la LK- 95% all magical, 5% all rare.

I think the only way to confirm in game whether a chest is truly Sparkly is to run it enough times to get a non-magical/rare item out of it. I may be mistaken, but I think true Sparkly chests also drop white gear too. Supposedly there's a 2% chance for uniques out of one of these chests. My experience with the one in Sewers Level 1 (A3) confirms this. I get a batch of 2-4 uniques once every 50 runs or so (they always all suck, of course). This hypothesis is easily tested: anyone ever find a unique/set from an Act 5 chest that sparkles?

 

[jjscud]

Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)

I don't think this is correct.

Sorry, it is correct.

I can't possibly be bothered to prove that the game works the way its supposed to when the evidence you have is only observation over ~150 runs. Please feel free to assume those chests are Special and do 100K HotD runs.