Re: LK /p3-4 Superchest Drops (The Search for Lo Is Over)
The rune drop process is as follows:
Start with the area's / monster's rune tier. For LK this is Runes 15.
Add up the total probabilities for that tier: Sur: 3, Ber: 2, drop to Runes 14: 11766 (for 1.13) or 27011 (for 1.12a).
Roll a random number between 1 (indexing could actually start at 0, I don't know) and the total, 11771 or 27016, and perform the corresponding action.
If 1,2, or 3 were rolled then drop Sur. If 4, or 5 were rolled drop Ber, otherwise go to Runes 14 and perform the same procedure.
The truncated seed for LK means that there are 65536 unique series of random numbers that are used for item drops. (I believe that there is a second random number generator with an unaffected seed for choosing the item affixes which is why the item stats are different even on the same drop pattern.)
When taking a given series of random numbers the only drop changes with regards to LK are the high rune probabilities. The only way that the drop patterns will change is when something different from 1.12a happens. This is when a high rune does actually drop, because otherwise the drop program just goes to a lower tier like normal. The lower rune tiers are unchanged so the same random numbers being applied to the same probabilities will result in the same actions.
Let us say that for the tier Runes 15, the random number generator produces 68826836. (A 32-bit number because the random number generator is 32-bit even though the seed number was truncated to 16-bits by the LK drop code.)
In 1.12a:
68826836 modulo 27016 = 17 084
This is not 1,2,3,4, or 5, thus the program drops to Runes 14.
In 1.13:
68826836 modulo 11771 = 1 799
This is also not 1,2,3,4, or 5, thus the program also drops to Runes 14.
In both cases Runes 14 gets the same next random number from the random number generator, and is likely to also act in exactly the same way in both versions.
Given the high chance of dropping to a lower tier it is likely that the drop program still falls below the revised drop probabilities and then acts in the same way as 1.12a.
Summary: I expect that for any lower rune patterns that do exist in 1.13 they will be identical to 1.12a. Not all of the patterns from 1.12a may exist in 1.13 as some of them might instead drop a high rune which would alter the pattern. Also, the high rune patterns from 1.12a are very likely to no longer exist in 1.13 because of the change in probabilities.
(It is possible for the patterns to remain unchanged, however, because 5 is a 32-bit number too and if the drop program received the number 5 on tier Runes 15 it will always drop Ber whether in 1.12a or 1.13. The 16-bit seed makes this highly unlikely to actually occur.)