 Volume: # Calculate chance

#### forth

##### New member
Calculate chance

How do i calculate the chance of getting a 2/3/3 or 2/10/3/3 from shopping? or can someone do it for me? Re: Calculate chance

I think you'd have to count the total number of skills you can get on a scepter, multiply that by itself and then multiply that number by the total number of prefixes you can get on a scepter.
For the second type, multiply that final number by the number of suffixes you can get.

This will only apply at a level when all the mods are available to you 100% of the time.

No point to actually making this calculation, since you are only calculating the chance, which means you statistically could get it once every ... but in reality you could be shopping for a milion years without getting one or you could find one first time around(or anything inbetween).

Re: Calculate chance

True, but it would give me some kind of estimation, like i need to do "100.000" shops or a much greater value, and see if it's even worth

Re: Calculate chance

50% chance of prefix
49 prefixes
25 skills
3 possible options per skill (+1/2/3)
again 25 skills
3 possible options per skill (+1/2/3)

One in 551250 scepters?

Re: Calculate chance

forth > you won't know if it's worth it until you find one.
Only then you will be able to determine how much time it cost you and if it's worth it.

You could get it in the first try, making it well worth your time or you could never get it, making any shopping a waste of your time.

Take into account in the above number that you can see some ten scepters per shopview and you can usually tell if it's a +2 by the green-ish glow the scepter usually has.

Re: Calculate chance

Staffmods are much more advanced than that. Try to look it up.

Re: Calculate chance

Try the statistics forum perhaps

Re: Calculate chance

Okay well, another question
How much does such a scepter cost in gold? I have to make sure i have enough money when i see it Re: Calculate chance

They vary. It's been a while since I did some scepter shopping, but I prefer to bring at least a milion and a half to be sure I can afford it when something nice comes along.

Re: Calculate chance

Ok, well how rare are +3 holy shield scepters? And how much can i sell them for?

Re: Calculate chance

Incredibly rare, check this post for details (should apply to both LoD and Classic since staff mods available are exactly the same).

Re: Calculate chance

Well what would the price be for one?

Re: Calculate chance

Well what would the price be for one?
The post Ragnarod links to clearly tells me how much a scepter with any amount of Holy Shield is worth.

Re: Calculate chance

The post Ragnarod links to clearly tells me how much a scepter with any amount of Holy Shield is worth.

Sorry but i really cant see where

Re: Calculate chance

Given the rarity, you can make an educated guess.
A gull is common.
A Soj is rare.
Any scepter is extremely rare.

Re: Calculate chance

Don't forget supply/demand Rare + sought-after = exorbitant price
Rare + worthless = charsi fodder

Re: Calculate chance

Don't forget supply/demand Rare + sought-after = exorbitant price
Rare + worthless = charsi fodder

though such a scepter aint worthless

Re: Calculate chance

though such a scepter aint worthless

that is exactly what they are saying :thumbup:

A pally scepter is extremely sought after and as such, worth quite a bit. Though I have not been watching trades lately, a high end scepter was worth ~10 sojs (or more) back in the middle of the season. Right now, I imagine you could get a scepter pretty darn cheap.

Re: Calculate chance

and what would it be the most sought-after vendor sceptre out there?

(i dont play pallys lol)

Re: Calculate chance

Holy shield on a scepter.
Since holy shield is normally not allowed on the scepter, the chance of it being on a scepter is so much smaller then the 'allowed' (1/number of skills allowed at your level). 