Diablo 4 Boss Timer
Audio Alert:
Diablo 4 Boss Timer

Calculate chance


New member
Dec 7, 2009
Calculate chance

How do i calculate the chance of getting a 2/3/3 or 2/10/3/3 from shopping? or can someone do it for me? :)
Re: Calculate chance

I think you'd have to count the total number of skills you can get on a scepter, multiply that by itself and then multiply that number by the total number of prefixes you can get on a scepter.
For the second type, multiply that final number by the number of suffixes you can get.

This will only apply at a level when all the mods are available to you 100% of the time.

No point to actually making this calculation, since you are only calculating the chance, which means you statistically could get it once every ... but in reality you could be shopping for a milion years without getting one or you could find one first time around(or anything inbetween).
Re: Calculate chance

True, but it would give me some kind of estimation, like i need to do "100.000" shops or a much greater value, and see if it's even worth
Re: Calculate chance

50% chance of prefix
49 prefixes
25 skills
3 possible options per skill (+1/2/3)
again 25 skills
3 possible options per skill (+1/2/3)

One in 551250 scepters?
Re: Calculate chance

forth > you won't know if it's worth it until you find one.
Only then you will be able to determine how much time it cost you and if it's worth it.

You could get it in the first try, making it well worth your time or you could never get it, making any shopping a waste of your time.

Take into account in the above number that you can see some ten scepters per shopview and you can usually tell if it's a +2 by the green-ish glow the scepter usually has.
Re: Calculate chance

Okay well, another question
How much does such a scepter cost in gold? I have to make sure i have enough money when i see it :)
Re: Calculate chance

They vary. It's been a while since I did some scepter shopping, but I prefer to bring at least a milion and a half to be sure I can afford it when something nice comes along.
Re: Calculate chance

Ok, well how rare are +3 holy shield scepters? And how much can i sell them for?
Re: Calculate chance

Incredibly rare, check this post for details (should apply to both LoD and Classic since staff mods available are exactly the same).
Re: Calculate chance

Given the rarity, you can make an educated guess.
A gull is common.
A Soj is rare.
Any scepter is extremely rare.
Re: Calculate chance

Don't forget supply/demand :)

Rare + sought-after = exorbitant price
Rare + worthless = charsi fodder
Re: Calculate chance

though such a scepter aint worthless

that is exactly what they are saying :thumbup:

A pally scepter is extremely sought after and as such, worth quite a bit. Though I have not been watching trades lately, a high end scepter was worth ~10 sojs (or more) back in the middle of the season. Right now, I imagine you could get a scepter pretty darn cheap.

Re: Calculate chance

and what would it be the most sought-after vendor sceptre out there?

(i dont play pallys lol)
Re: Calculate chance

Holy shield on a scepter.
Since holy shield is normally not allowed on the scepter, the chance of it being on a scepter is so much smaller then the 'allowed' (1/number of skills allowed at your level).
The thread Ragnarod links to explains it quite well.
The following is a shortened version of how Holy Shield can appear on a scepter, this is by no means complete, you should really read that thread Ragnarod links to for a proper explanation :
While rolling a scepter, it first has to select a 'not allowed' skill for 5 rolls before it will accept Holy Shield on the sixth for any of the skill slots on the scepter.

I wager even a scepter with +1 holy shield should be able to fetch you exuberant amounts of SoJs. No other skills needed on there at all, since it's just used as a buff and saves some characters having to invest the 5 skillpoints to get level 1 in this skill.
Diablo 4 Interactive Map
Estimated market value