Baldur's Gate Mafia Game

[djmbbandie]

Do you have thoughts to share on who might end up befitting to receive your second vote? General impressions and the such?

No one else really seems scummy. Maybe I'm too nice a person to play this game....

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

I think drixx being the party host (or something similar) is the most likely scenario. With only one person listed to have visited last night whether or not to lynch kegs shouldn't even be a question unless someone is going to propose a magic bullet theory. Convienent that we have that extra lynch now since we pretty much have a guarenteed target. So Jason how does this change your long winded statistics post now?

Vote: kestegs

 

[pharphis]

Do you think that kegs killed Drixx?

Not directed at me but I want to add to this. Kegs is in the unfortunate seat of having to explain what his role is, otherwise the town misses out on information. If kegs is mafia then he likely gets lynched, but if he's town then he certainly needs to give up at least some indication of his role, because the mafia know he has a role, and if he's reluctant to tell us then that just makes it likely they will target him.

 

[flubbucket1]

I would like to hear an explanation from kesticle before I condemn him. How could anyone possibly think you're not mafia now?

...............

Plenty of time has passed and Drixx' blood is drying on the walls and floor.

Killer Kestegs has had time to respond....and yet zippo

Vote: kestegs

 

[Laarz]

Do you have thoughts to share on who might end up befitting to receive your second vote? General impressions and the such?



Normally I encourage this line of reasoning (and follow it often enough myself), but I don't think it's applicable to twilight phase banter.



What gives you reason to believe that this particular effect would be repeated?



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I was the first to introduce the role to the D2 forums. I poached it off a game I read a long time ago on the SA forums, and I'm fairly certain it was a made up role there. I don't think you'll find it as a standard role on the wiki sites.

CG, how did the party host you made work? Did the host target a person or persons?

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Not directed at me but I want to add to this. Kegs is in the unfortunate seat of having to explain what his role is, otherwise the town misses out on information. If kegs is mafia then he likely gets lynched, but if he's town then he certainly needs to give up at least some indication of his role, because the mafia know he has a role, and if he's reluctant to tell us then that just makes it likely they will target him.

Wow. This has to be the worst attempt at a save ever. What happened to Jerome "the bus" Pharphis?

Vote 2: Pharphis

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Just in case Solar decides to be picky...

Vote 2: pharphis

 

[Sathoris]

Yesterday you had a 'vote' on pharphis. What changed between then and now to make you want to vote Goryani?

Vendetta!

But I'll get Goryani some other way, wink wink.

Unvote 2: Goryani
Vote 2: Pharphis

 

[Kestegs]

Plenty of time has passed and Drixx' blood is drying on the walls and floor.

Killer Kestegs has had time to respond....and yet zippo

Vote: kestegs

3.5 hours is ample time? really?

Anyways, not that I can blame anyone for voting for me, I'd do the same if it were anyone but me.

Might as well give you all the info I have and y'all can decide whether you want to believe me or not.

I am Winthrop, the Innkeeper. I have an ability that I must use every night. I must select a patron to give a potion of clarity to, this patron will be unable to vote the next day, but will be made aware of my identity. I did not target Drixx though, I targeted Caluin Graye. How I ended up targeting Drixx is unknown to me.

 

[Pyrotechnician1]

Yep, so drixx just died all on his own now, is that your story kegs?

 

[Sathoris]

Nice try, any busdrive would then also show the killer..
Simply put, you can't be the only person visiting a dead man and expect to get away with it. The semi anti-town ability is a nice touch. One mafia down.

<3 Pyro

 

[pharphis]

Wow. This has to be the worst attempt at a save ever. What happened to Jerome "the bus" Pharphis?

Vote 2: Pharphis

Where in that post am I attempting to save him? I'm saying he needs to tell us his info or be lynched. I'm not saying we should believe his claim, either.

Are YOU busing him? don't worry, I'll still pull a Jerome when the time arises.

 

[pharphis]

Oh, looks like he posted.
I'm not really buying it, but I don't feel the need to lock yet. Still under 5 hours.

 

[BipolarChemist]

Wow. This has to be the worst attempt at a save ever. What happened to Jerome "the bus" Pharphis?

It does seem like bit of a save. The thing that jumps out at me is that it seems like a very low-key save attempt, which jumps out as exactly what I would expect on day 1 and we were lynching scum already. So...

Vote 2: pharphis

It also seems way too obvious that Kestegs would be scum, with this whole targeting thing. I can't not vote for this, and I'm fine with an early lock on this lynch just to get it out of the way, so we can focus on the second vote.

Vote: kestegs

I am Winthrop, the Innkeeper.

Looking into the characters chosen, this is a very random small character. Minor backstory: [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]He is a friendly, tubby gentleman and very neutral.
This seems a bit too random of a character to choose, but who knows.[/FONT]

 

[pharphis]

Looking into the characters chosen, this is a very random small character. Minor backstory: He is a friendly, tubby gentleman and very neutral.
This seems a bit too random of a character to choose, but who knows.

That's typical of scum. Pick a low key character and hope you aren't counter-claimed. Or sometimes they claim someone they think is the doc/cop so that the real doc/cop will counter-claim.

On the other hand, we're talking about an inn-keeper (*cough* gnome shop role Gory mentioned possibly inspired this innkeeper PARTY HOST that was killed *cough*), aka kegs would be scum and stole the name from Drixx.

 

[BipolarChemist]

On the other hand, we're talking about an inn-keeper (*cough* gnome shop role Gory mentioned possibly inspired this innkeeper PARTY HOST that was killed *cough*), aka kegs would be scum and stole the name from Drixx.

I think this scenario would be positively hilarious.

 

[Goryani]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I was the first to introduce the role to the D2 forums. I poached it off a game I read a long time ago on the SA forums, and I'm fairly certain it was a made up role there. I don't think you'll find it as a standard role on the wiki sites.

You were the first. I'm quite surprised about the rest. The role is so polished and natural I just assumed it's been in enough games to be put on a wiki somewhere.

Do you think that kegs killed Drixx?

I think the most likely source of the info we received is that of a Party Host. If so, that would make kestegs the killer. While it may be possible for Drixx to die even if kestegs didn't pull the trigger and no one else targeted him, none of those scenarios explain why the info was posted in thread. kestegs killing Drixx is the best explanation I have.

 

[Jason Maher]

*snip*

DRAGONHUNT:

*snip*

“Maybe. On the other hand, these creatures are not mindlessly violent. A great shift in their behaviour would have been necessary to entice an attack like the one we have born witness to. Ruthlessly torching the Inn like that would be completely out of character for them. That is the point of the issue. Perhaps they too have been affected by something. What we can-“

*snip*

Dragonhunt: Moar

Nope. We're dealing with conditional probability, you have to treat the two lynches separately and in order. So there's 4 possibilities (I'm assuming 4 scum and 1 SK, which is lumped with the scum as anti-town):

1) Town -> Scum
2) Town -> Town
3) Scum -> Town
4) Scum -> Scum

1) P = 17/22 * 5/21 = 85/462 ~ 0.184

2) P = 17/22 * 16/21 = 272/462 ~ 0.589

3) P = 5/22 * 17/21 = 85/462 ~ 0.184

4) P = 5/22 * 4/21 = 20/462 ~ 0.043

This is of course assuming random choice, which on day 1 is close enough, unless a scum makes a glaring slip. The upshot is a 41% chance of netting at least one scum. It's then a question of whether "at least one scum from two lynches" with a probability of 41% is as useful tot he town as "one sucm from one lynch" with a probability of 23%.

I tend to think the scum would NOT want a double chance to lose a member on day 1, and hence it is a positive for the town, and worth the risk of losing two townies.

Anyway, in other news, here's an interesting table I made up:
*snip*

Actually, it was assuming a day phase to begin. Getting mixed up between this place and other palces where I've played/play Mafia, where the game always starts with a day phase.

@Gwaihir: to answer two questions: first off I did read Laarz's vote on Moar before I did my digging, so I was looking for her in there somewhere. And I highlighted flub because he enjoyed it so much last time I did so.

Potato, potato. You missed answering my question, though, which I am more interested in.

Your math is assuming that everyone survives the night. (Granted, this is a moot point; if the dead player(s) are assumed to be townfolk, then that just makes the odds of catching scum rise as there's a smaller pool to choose from).

Assuming Moar is the Dragon, with all this math you're presenting would you say that you're for or against using both lynches on day one?



I was in that game and remember your tables, and I still don't get what you're trying to convey.

Very much for. On the basis that the scum wouldn't want us to have two shots at nailing them.

I nearly suicided by posting an answer to this at night, by the by. I r smart. :crazyeyes:

I would like to hear an explanation from kesticle before I condemn him. How could anyone possibly think you're not mafia now?

@ the room at large: excuse my newbness, but where is this information coming from? I know Solar told us, but I thought that kind of information ("was targeted by") was unknown to players most of the time.

In the mean time because he's done way too many posts that were "here look at this and don't talk about anything relevant." Too much BS. Too much wall of text maths that didn't really seem to matter.

Vote: Jason Maher

I posted my views on the only two things worth discussing in twilight. I identified Moar as the Red Dragon, after which nothing more needed to be said on my part. I also offered my view on the value of 2 lynches on day 1. Perhaps I could have said more on this matter, or made a separate post so it wasn't lost among my maths and spam. By I can't add any more to what I said: 2 lynches are good because the scum won't want us to have 2 chances at nabbing one of them.

I'm holding off my vote until CG confirms whether or not he is restricted from voting as scumstegs claims.

 

[Goryani]

I am Winthrop, the Innkeeper. I have an ability that I must use every night. I must select a patron to give a potion of clarity to, this patron will be unable to vote the next day, but will be made aware of my identity. I did not target Drixx though, I targeted Caluin Graye. How I ended up targeting Drixx is unknown to me.

OK. I'll bite.

Why did you try to vote block Caluin Graye?
You "must select a patron to give a potion of clarity to?" Must as in compulsory? What happens if you fail to send in the ability?

 

[Goryani]

Oh, looks like he posted.
I'm not really buying it, but I don't feel the need to lock yet. Still under 5 hours.

Why do you think kestegs is close to a lock? What do you hope will be accomplished by not voting/locking but also not contributing to further discussion?