Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

[Feysal]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

My, how noisy it is here! I was having a nice nap when you woke me up, but that is fine, with so many guests in the house this is no time to be sleeping. So many new faces too, excuse me if I can't remember all of your names on first meeting.

So, what have we been talking about? Dentistry? That reminds me, I should get an appointment with doctor Spalding to get my dentures fixed, they got bent out of shape somehow and wearing them is so uncomfortable. Such a nice young man he is, and with a great smile, but then a dentist should have a bright smile don't you agree? Oh I'm sorry, I just keep on rambling. Why were we talking about dentists again?

How long has it been since you played mafia?

Good gracious, you don't play with mafia. Awful, awful people. Why, they might even kill you if they thought you gave them a funny look. Better stay away from them.

Have you ever played as mafia or anti-town?

Well, I have to admit that the mafia do know how to dress themselves right. Always go out to town in suits and wearing a tie.

Have you ever won a game as mafia or anti-town?

I won at bridge last week at the club, but I don't know if any of the other contestants were mafia. I sure hope not, they seemed like such good people.

What was the most memorable, weirdest, or otherwise noteworthy game/role/scenario you have ever seen while playing mafia?

Well, the way that Michael Larson fellow kept winning spin after spin was certainly memorable. He had a funny way of talking though, I always wondered what that was about. I always liked that show, but I can't find it in the TV guide any more. I wonder if they stopped airing it?

What were we talking about again?

 

[coju]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

LOL You talking about the video game mafia?

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Okay, let's run the numbers on this shall we?

Let's say there are 26 people in the game (Which I believe is accurate) and let's say 4 are anti-town. Right now the ratio is 4 bad to 22 good. That is .18 repeating.

If we do nothing today and proceed onto the night phase, the most likely outcome is we lose a townie, bringing the ratio to 4 bad to 21 good, or .19.

If we assume there is no way for us to make an intelligent lynching on day one, we still have roughly a 20% chance to eliminate a mafia, which drastically shifts the odds in our favor to .1363 (last two digits repeating) before the night and assuming they kill a townie to .143.

If we mess up and lynch a townie, it has a much smaller impact to the bad than lynching a mafia has to the good. Since the anti-town is severely limited in numbers, it is always to the best interest of the town to attempt to kill them, even on day one. In fact, the odds are never really better for us than they are now. As we get killed off during the nights, it becomes more and more likely that the anti-town wins. Doing nothing only hastens our downfall.

This feels counter-intuitive because unless someone messes up, we have a higher chance to lynch one of our own than to lynch an anti; however, because we have so many more lives to work with the math works out in our favor. Remember, all we need to do is get lucky once to drastically swing the odds in our favor. .

Odds don't mean ****. And to count on a d1 mafia lynch to drastically swing the odds in our favour is naive. And you can bet anything that they're more than 4 mafia out there and a lot of unexpected twists and turns. Don't treat this as a standard game with odds and scenario's.

We're assuming there's no way to get an intelligent lynch because you already confessed to wanting to have unintelligent lynch just to have a lynch. Moreover you mentioned this within the first 24 hours of the game.

My dear lord you people have to post slower for me T_T Reading through 10 pages of mafia posts is so quite tiring.

Anyhow, I'm on page 10 atm so I haven't covered all the reading material so far.

For the story, I had a wild idea that maybe we have a doc that can target himself and was saved with the kill, but considering the size of the game, and the fact that he somehow ended up silencing himself, that idea got shut down pretty quickly.

I'm a little out of touch with these games as my last one was quite a while ago and I haven't been playing all that often back then anyhow so I'll have to take a few breathers to get the handle of the ropes again.

To begin with, I really dislike Ankeli's aggressive play style XD Not saying it's not effective, but I always get a huge false positive at first because of it. I get a slight notion that Gullik is somehow connected to Ank, but that's because he jumped onto zemaj pretty quickly after Ankeli tossed a vote at him. I'm gonna wait till I plow through the remaining three pages or otherwise some more info before I cast my vote at zemaj, as for now I'm not really getting any tingling on the good ol' radar.

korialstraz is just chillin in the background. Posting just to post, you know how it is.

corax.... the only thing that I've noticed here is that he had three votes cast at him in a short time and he's taking it like a baus. That's a few brownie points towards the vote from me, as I think he's just trying to stay off the radar for the most part since now zemaj is receiving most of the heat.

Man, playing these mafia games is always the same ;] like finding a pin in a haystack.

Oh hello mr. mafia!

Vote: Boogeyman

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Oh hello mr. mafia!

Vote: Boogeyman

For some reason I got the same vibes. I still think that my vote is where it should remain.

 

[Kestegs]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Alright...

I'm suspicious of the following people: (in order)

Drixx-as previously discussed. General scummyness and lack of an explanation.
Feysal-absolutely worthless post. We get one post from you so far and all it has is OT? Zemaj-scummy first post
Korial-still LIPSing (lurking in plain sight)

I don't get the same impression from Boogey, can sath or ank explain what was so key in making you feel he is scum?

 

[Kestegs]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Drixx-as previously discussed. General scummyness and lack of an explanation.
Feysal-absolutely worthless post. We get one post from you so far and all it has is OT?
Zemaj-scummy first post
Korial-still LIPSing (lurking in plain sight)

Kinda messed up the formatting on my list, made it a bit confusing.

 

[Goryani]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Yhudran vyldeuh luimt ymcu pa nalniedan. Drixx ouin juda ec hud jymet....(#49)

"Another faction could also be recruiter. Drixx your vote is not valid."

Is this a generic 'covering all bases' response or should we be genuinely concerned with a recruiter? Do you feel as if CG might have been recruited last night? The unnamed gunshot victim? Anyone else?

Corax switching votes does seem odd, but it is the first day.
Zemaj revenge voting Ank.

Those two seem to be the front-runners of a train but it's early in the day yet.

Are they front-runners because you think they are the two most likely to be anti-town or are they front-runners because they have the most votes?

So you'd vote for someone just because his defence on basically a bull**** case isn't good enough. I'm sorry sir but I'll much rather take a no lynch today. It's not a lost day. Power role's got information. Scum want an extra dead townie though.

In fact I'd go for lynching you but then I'd be doing the same thing that I'm trying to lynch you for.

Who are you and what have you done with the real Sathoris? You are one of the most outspoken proponents of D1 lynches. Why the 180?

I think you would agree that if only some good guys could decipher posts (and assuming the garbled speech comes with a benefit) then it would be better for only the pro-town people to be able to read those posts, right? But now since everyone can read them, the affected person cannot send a message with any hope mafi wouldn't intercept it.

If it could be shown that only good guys can decipher posts and it could be shown that only good guys make the garbled posts needing deciphering, then there is some potential benefit. The post restriction and decoders form a mason group of sorts.

Unfortunately, I don't see how to ensure either assumption is true. If the post restricted player is mafia, the decoders end up enabling whatever plans mafia set in motion while the town loses out on verification from a bunch of other pair of eyes. If a decoder is mafia, then the post restricted player ends up sending secret messages directly to the mafia anyway, possibly without the town ever knowing the contents of the secret message.

Well, let's break it down shall we?

Either the post restriction is permanent or targeted.

If it's targeted, we learn nothing by who was targeted on night one.

If it's permanent, I think it's far far far far more likely that it's a townie than a mafia. Mafia are already very limited in number ... so for an ability to "out" them seems just mean spirited. Additionally, with the requirement that each player must post at least 2 times per day cycle, this ability can never be hidden.

I think the bigger question is why the post restriction is in place.

You haven't read about the Mexican Drug Lord/Spanish Tourist have you? Or how about the Animated Batman Series Joker? Having a post restriction isn't pro-town anymore than it's anti-town, especially in our games. We need to get a read on flubb just like every other player.

Speaking of post restrictions: If one of our games has a post restriction, there is almost always a second post restriction (or third, fourth...). I'm waiting for the second one to show up, though I'm not certain if everyone has posted yet. CG's daytime silence could be one, but it isn't a very fun one and it's unlike any of the past post restrictions.

On post restrictions, we have had games where people made up a restriction for their own reasons, to get people to vote for them was one of the reasons and kablooie they were a bomb with a ability to take a certian number of people with them. So not all restrictions are permanent or targeted.

What game and who was it? That sounds fun.

I remember a jester/village idiot tried faking a post restriction about 3 days into a game in an effort to get lynched. He tried so hard but players kept looking other directions at the end of the day. He eventually pulled out the Evil Spock pics and tried to indicate he was recruited but couldn't tell anyone. That incident is one of my most memorable mafia moments.

 

[Gullik]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

With afterthought I'm not taking Drixx's not telling us that he deciphered the code to be a mafia tell.

Yes it's anti-town to know it and not tell the town. But actually telling us that s/he knew it, and didn't tell us, doesn't make any sense from a mafia perspective.



Is Feysal drunk, on acid. silly, or post restricted to not talk about the game?

 

[Valhauros]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Drixx's "But I found the translation within a few moments of the gibberish going up and kept that to myself":
Why would you keep things out of town's reach? When I saw Flub's posts, the first thing that crossed my mind was "We've got to decipher this". I find the explanations in your consequent attempts to clear yourself quite hard to believe. Also, your offended reaction in post #142 is quite typical for Mafia to use; I know because I've done it myself in previous games. I think this was just a huge slip.

Vote: Drixx

Nevertheless, If there's another lynch candidate that needs a vote to get lynched, I'm willing to switch to him or her for the sake of progression (specially if it's Rlyeh, Coju or Boogeyman).

 

[flubbucket1]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

@Kunoyhe- So lussahd nakyntehk nalniedanc fyc du buccepmo aqbmyeh so (rubavimmo dasbunyno) bucdehk nacdneldeuh. E tuh'd pameaja LK fyc nalniedat, E drehg ra cyjat rescamv mycd hekrd fedr rec clymbam. Druca uv oui fedr dra ypemedo du bnudald cruimt dyga huda! Frah ra lusac uid uv dra rucbedym ra luimt buccepmo pa jimhanypma.

E drehg E ihtancdyht Vaocym palyica E fydlr HLEC. Ev E's nekrd eh so yccisbdeuh...kuut fung Sn. Vaocym

E's uh dra vahla fedr Tneqq. Ra caasc du ryja byehdat rescamv ehdu y lunhan. E fyhd du pameaja ra fyc ynnukyhd fedr rec E ghaf ed ymm ymuhk puycd nakyntehk so kynpmat cbaalr. Rufajan rec aqbmyehydeuhc cehla ryja cuihtat suna yht suna mega tacbanydeuh dryh druikrd uid naycuhehk.

Yht E's cdemm fyedehk vun dra "suna" vnus wasyz....

 

[Gullik]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

For your convenience I present flubbies post "@Goryani- My comment regarding recruiters was to possibly explain my (hopefully temporary) posting restriction. I don't believe CG was recruited, I think he saved himself last night with his scalpel. Those of you with the ability to protect should take note! When he comes out of the hospital he could possibly be vulnerable.

I think I understand Feysal because I watch NCIS. If I'm right in my assumption...good work Mr. Feysal

I'm on the fence with Drixx. He seems to have painted himself into a corner. I want to believe he was arrogant with his I knew it all along boast regarding my garbled speech. However his explainations since have sounded more and more like desperation than thought out reasoning.

And I'm still waiting for the "more" from zemaj...."

Feysals post makes sense for NCIS watchers?

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

My emphasis.

This looks like a slip and a cover to me.

It does to me too. and further posts from him just keep getting him further into his own grave.

Vote: Drixx

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Who are you and what have you done with the real Sathoris? You are one of the most outspoken proponents of D1 lynches. Why the 180?

I am in favor of D1 lynches, but not for the reason Drixx mentioned*. We've also had a similar discussion last game where I think Loz asked how we felt about a random D1 lynch. Most people were against it.

I'd like to see a lynch on Drixx or Boogey or any other compelling case. But Zemaj's case isn't that.

*Boogey's scum for also mentioning about hopping on the zemaj waggon without giving his opinion or any reasons. His post is a clear modkill avoidance post.

Speaking of post restrictions: If one of our games has a post restriction, there is almost always a second post restriction (or third, fourth...). I'm waiting for the second one to show up, though I'm not certain if everyone has posted yet. CG's daytime silence could be one, but it isn't a very fun one and it's unlike any of the past post restrictions.

I'm quite certain Feysal has a 2nd. If he doesn't then I want him lynched out of pure annoyance.

Unvote: Boogey
Vote: Drixx

Get on the drixx wagon!!

 

[korialstraz]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Alright...

I'm suspicious of the following people: (in order)

Korial-still LIPSing (lurking in plain sight)

I wouldn't call it lurking myself, but you're of course free to have your own opinion. Although if it can be said for me after the few games I've played, this is my usual play style. Now I've not seen anyone else point fingers at me, but you seem overly keen on pointing out the way I post. Why's that?

If you have any doubts about me, then fire away some questions. I've already explained why my posts are the way they are at this stage in the game.

I don't get the same impression from Boogey, can sath or ank explain what was so key in making you feel he is scum?

I want to know the exact same myself. What in his post was such a definite tell towards being scum?

 

[korialstraz]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

I'll be back a bit later again. I'm hoping Zemaj will post soon so I can decide where to place my vote.

 

[Kestegs]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Well, I did put you at the bottom of my list. Your posting style has been a bit disturbing to me thusfar as it seems a touch out of character, but I have never played a mafia game with you, so I'm probably overreacting.

I'll jump on the Drixx train after I hear an explanation about the Bogey business if Drixx is still my top suspect.

 

[flubbucket1]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

@ Cydrunec- Tu oui drehg wasyz ec zicd sygehk huupecr secdygac?

Rec mycd bucd bnusecat du pa pylg du aqbmyeh vindran...yht oad drana ec hudrehk. E dyga dryd du pa uid vu cekrd, uid uv seht.

 

[boogyman19946]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

Boogey's scum for also mentioning about hopping on the zemaj waggon without giving his opinion or any reasons. His post is a clear modkill avoidance post.

I get a slight notion that Gullik is somehow connected to Ank, but that's because he jumped onto zemaj pretty quickly after Ankeli tossed a vote at him. I'm gonna wait till I plow through the remaining three pages or otherwise some more info before I cast my vote at zemaj, as for now I'm not really getting any tingling on the good ol' radar.

You want to go over that one again? I seem to be getting a different meaning than what my eyes tell me.:scratchchin:

 

[Kestegs]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

well, since so many want a defense from me I would hate to disappoint... a little rushed though, so no quotes sorry.

First, this is pretty far from my first game... although it is only my second with this group. As was noted in the first, I do play a bit differently than most of you seem to. Also as before, I make no excuses or apologies... if you really think I am scum, lynch me & find out what the deal is (because that worked out so well last time, as some will remember, I assume).

Secondly, I jumped on Ankeli because he jumped at me... its a retaliatory vote, meant to push things along & hopefully see where things go, commonly (among my usual group, anyway) referred to as 'baiting'. I also noticed he has yet to have answered any of my questions aside from saying that drunken posts are great (totally agree, btw... in almost any context BUT mafia games).

Anyway, I hope that answers some queries. I won't be around until much later, due to RL, so I guess that will be as good as it gets for most of the rest of today (as in solar day... I should be able to post again before nightphase)

Several people seem to have missed this...Kinda odd that everyone was asking for it and then no one payed attention when he responded.

 

[boogyman19946]

Re: Witch Hunt: The NCIS Haloween Forum Mafia Thread

oh wait. of course, i forgot, in mafia games, you get labeled scum for mentioning things, not actually doing anything. Scratch the last post then, I misread sathoris's post. I'm gonna look scummy as hell but I think that reasoning is pure boolsh.... I gave my opinion saying I don't think zemaj is mafia. I think he just got grouped and didn't want to get lynched.