Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Going to lay something out there, let me see if this makes sense.
Noodle had an investigative role. He and Gorny have a friendly rivalry going on, so Noodle goes and investigates Gorny on N1. However, TC states that Gorny likes to bus driver himself on N1 if he has the option, so Noodle's read gets misdirected. There are two new players in the game, and being the sadistic SoB that Gorny strikes me as, he will probably pick one of them as second target. Let's say he chooses me, so Noodle gets a "pro-town, Investigative Reporter" result (since that's what I am).
This explains how Noodle could role-claim as the assistant. And it's not very far fetched.
Continuing this train of thought, that means CgB did indeed target himself on N1, making him the doctor. Mafia (working through Techno) targets Feysal and gets a successful night kill, though because it's poison, Feysal instead dies at the end of the day.
On night two, kidnapper strikes and grabs Leo, mafia strangle and kill Laarz. We see Asrrin targeting TC.
Flash forwards to night five, the important night. I spot Asrrin and CgB targeting Ivan, and nobody is dead. We know it was a doctor save. The only people who have role-claimed doctor are CgB and Asrrin, so we know one of the two is scum, and the other is our doctor.
Now, to the point.
Why Asrrin is scum:
The series of events that point to Asrrin being scum are much easier to believe than if he's not. In order for Asrrin to be scum, we only have to accept that he has a non-NK power which he targeted TC on night two with while a different mafia member made the hit.
In order for Asrrin to be townie, we'd have to believe the following items:
A) CgB made the N1 kill attempt, and Gorny redirected it back on to him.
B) CgB is night kill immune (i.e., Godfather).
C) The poison kill from Techno was a one-shot, day kill power.
D) Asrrin, who claims only a 'poison doctor' role, wouldn't have saved Ivan from CgB, so a third person was at the scene on night five.
E) This third person would have to be immune to my watcher abilities, or I can only see some people, not the entire crowd.
So, let me ask you: What's more believable? Items A thru E, or the fact that CgB is our doctor and Asrrin has a secondary power?
(Additionally, it doesn't make sense to me why we have to lynch Ankeli to get information on Asrrin; why don't we just lynch Asrrin to get information on Asrrin?)
Why Sathoris is scum:
I'll be the first to admit that Sathoris is a very good player. He's extremely smart. In fact, he's so smart, he should know that all the scenarios and planning of powers he talked about throughout day (example: Post 740) would be worthless, since posting that information immediately invalidates it all.
Additionally, when I fingered Asrrin for the night five attempt on Ivan, he stated he watched Ivan as well. As Ivan points out, Sathoris never brings anything new to the table in those regards; everything he mentions is either something the mafia would know (the target, CgB being our doctor), or something I point out first.
Lastly, if Sathoris really was watching the events on night five, I would have seen him targeting Ivan. I don't believe there's any limit to the amount of people I can see, and Sathoris is trying to coat-tail his way into town ranks.
(Very well played, might I add. )
Why Bad Ash is scum:
Post #715 sums it up better than I probably could.
Lastly, the serial killer:
Either Zarniwoop or TC.
Zarniwoop... you know, why do we believe Zarniwoop to be the serial killer again? Can someone point me to the proper location that shows evidence to his crimes? Or is it just a gut feeling people have? TC's instinct may have been right about Techno (hard to go wrong with that one), but that was probably just a very educated guess. Techno had a lot of scum tells... Zarni, on the other hand, has been playing semi-pro town.
Don't think that this clears you though, Zarni. You're still a suspect.
ThunderCat, on the other hand... now, my instinct is telling me that he's the serial killer. We can't verify any of the information he's given to us, so it could be all made up.
Note how he wants to lynch both Asrrin and myself. I'm practically confirmed townie. The serial killer would want to remove as many of the mafia members and the confirmed townies as possible, to allow him to hide amongst the unclaimed, unsure town-folk. That's the safest path to victory. If all the mafia are killed off (which looks to be a real possibility), then it's only a matter of time before the confirmed townies pick off the serial killer amongst whomever is left. Since he can only kidnap every other night, that doesn't give him much chance at winning.
However, if he can get the confirmed townies removed, along with the mafia, then he looks to be the most pro-town individual left, and the town has a better chance of self-imploding.
Remember: Nothing has confirmed TC as pro-town yet, with the exception of Marahumm getting a pro-town result. However, don't most serial killers give a pro-town result, in order to increase their odds of survival?
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Now that I've laid out all my thoughts, going to cast my vote. In my mind, Asrrin is scum, no doubt about it. Sathoris is most likely scum, though not as a sure bet as Asrrin is. Bad Ash could be scum, but still not as likely as Sathoris.
Therefore, I say we vote for the sure thing.
Vote: Asrrin
I really hope the rest of the town sees the wisdom in this, and we're not splitting our votes.
