ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Why are you so sure about Zarniwoop, Sathoris?
Why are you so sure about Zarniwoop, Sathoris?
Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
- Thread starter Uraj
- Start date
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Ah you mean:
Anyone could've told you Val didn't quote his entire role PM, which is basicly what Zarni says here. I see no mention of the word exact or any indication of. If this is your ace in the hole then I suggest you rethink your strategies.
Read him in iso and it's fairly abundant what he's been doing. That and power of elimination.
Loz, Ivan, TC and CG are all confirmed town. That's four out of 6. Knowing my alignement and one of CoolguyBad and Asrrin being the doc. (Hey, anyone would've found the mystery person anyway.)* Makes 6 out of 6.
That leaves Bad Ash, Techno, Asrrin/CoolguyBad, Ankeli and Zarniwoop as four mafia and one SK
Techno, Bad Ash, Ankeli and one of Asrrin/CB are mafia. Zarni's been coasting all game, not much interaction with any player. It's either him or Ankeli.
*There's also a chance Loz is the doctor, we never learned anything from his role. All we know is he got Ivan's item. If the person in question is Loz we must ask ourselves whether mafia can receive items too. In a game where the town has a lot of information roles it wouldn't be bizarry, but unlikely.
Ah you mean:
Anyone could've told you Val didn't quote his entire role PM, which is basicly what Zarni says here. I see no mention of the word exact or any indication of. If this is your ace in the hole then I suggest you rethink your strategies.
Read him in iso and it's fairly abundant what he's been doing. That and power of elimination.
Loz, Ivan, TC and CG are all confirmed town. That's four out of 6. Knowing my alignement and one of CoolguyBad and Asrrin being the doc. (Hey, anyone would've found the mystery person anyway.)* Makes 6 out of 6.
That leaves Bad Ash, Techno, Asrrin/CoolguyBad, Ankeli and Zarniwoop as four mafia and one SK
Techno, Bad Ash, Ankeli and one of Asrrin/CB are mafia. Zarni's been coasting all game, not much interaction with any player. It's either him or Ankeli.
*There's also a chance Loz is the doctor, we never learned anything from his role. All we know is he got Ivan's item. If the person in question is Loz we must ask ourselves whether mafia can receive items too. In a game where the town has a lot of information roles it wouldn't be bizarry, but unlikely.
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
I agree with your list Sathoris. Thus I suggest we do the following. Let's lynch either Bad Ash or Technomancer today and focus on the others after they have been dealt with. At which point we should have more information to focus on.
Vote: Technomancer
I'd prefer him first for his lurking.
I agree with your list Sathoris. Thus I suggest we do the following. Let's lynch either Bad Ash or Technomancer today and focus on the others after they have been dealt with. At which point we should have more information to focus on.
Vote: Technomancer
I'd prefer him first for his lurking.
LozHinge the Unhinged
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Ankeli, I truly applaud your principles, but do you know how anti-town you appear right now? And I mean, this is nothing to do with assigned roles.
Ankeli, I truly applaud your principles, but do you know how anti-town you appear right now? And I mean, this is nothing to do with assigned roles.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
If the only way to get Asrrin to hang is to prove my role through a lynch then so be it. This is a way to achieve it.
If the only way to get Asrrin to hang is to prove my role through a lynch then so be it. This is a way to achieve it.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
While I'm in favor of a techno lynch eventually I think we should focus on finding all the mafia first. Once we've identified em all we can win this game easily through lynches and SK kills.
The two outstanding issues are the still unsolved Asrrin/CB theory and Ankeli attacking Asrrin so fiercely while shooting down the godfather idea. I think it's safe to say that if Ankeli is mafia he's ignoring the godfather theory to protect his godfather. So if we lynch him and he turns out mafia then we can clear Asrrin and damn CB as the godfather. All mafia are outed and we win.
However if Ankeli turns out town then he simply believed what he did and tunneled on Asrrin because he thought Asrrin was mafia. We've lost a (vanilla by his claim) townie, but we got two people with PR's that we can nail by two people watching other people. We tell them who to target and if one of them doesn't do so. He's the mafia and we know who the doc is and we don't need to risk lynching the doc.
If we decide to test the Asrrin/CB angle we need to decide what theory we think is more plausible:
1) The mafia godfather is NK immune because we have more than one killing team and more than one switching role. His first NK target got redirected onto himself and he survives but was seen targeting himself. This same guy targeted Ivan last night to NK him, but the kill got protected. Asrrin was seen targeting TC on a night of two killings. TC was a possible NK target and as such a possible doc target. Asrrin was again seen by two people last night targeting Ivan, to protect him from an NK.
2) The godfather is still unknown and CG saw the doc target himself on day one, either due to switches or not. The doc was again seen protecting Ivan last night. Asrrin would be the mafia hitman in this case. Targeting Ivan for a kill last night. But with two kills on the night that Asrrin targeted TC, what was he doing?
I'm leaning towards 1) because of the amount of information roles on the town side and the number of switches and killing factions it's likely the mafia must have some protection against chance. Plus asrrin's targeting of TC is an anomaly that doesn't fit if he wasn't protecting him.
Say we lynch CB and he flips town doc. We know Asrrin was the hitman, but we still don't know whether Ankeli is town or simply bussing his partner Asrrin. With the doc gone and Ankeli likely to not be using a PR that night we can't watch any of the would be targets to find out who's targeting who in the suspect list.
If we lynch CB and he comes up as the godfather, we know Ankeli was protecting him and we have all four scum and the doc is still alive.
Of course it works the other way around too. If Asrrin comes up doc then CB is the godfather and Ankeli his partner. If Asrrin comes up mafia than CB is the doc, but Ankeli is still uncertain.
TL;DR: We should catch all the scum today and systematicly finish them off. Check the above for scenario's.
If we lynch town we'll end up 5v4v1 tonight. The SK kills mafia. Mafia kills SK. It's 5v3v0. We lynch the rest of the confirmed mafia and we win.
If we lynch mafia we'll end up 6v3v1. Sk kills mafia, mafia kills SK. It's 6v2v0 and we win.
If the mafia decide to kill town instead of the SK then we'll either be on 4v3v1 if we lynched town and in the end on 1v0v1 and the SK wins with us. And 5v2v1 if we lynched scum, which ends up 3v1v0 and we win.
Either way we're in good shape I think. I vote for lynching Ankeli as that's the best way of confirming all the mafia.
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Doing this in the morning on only one cup of coffee, but I think I got it all right.
While I'm in favor of a techno lynch eventually I think we should focus on finding all the mafia first. Once we've identified em all we can win this game easily through lynches and SK kills.
The two outstanding issues are the still unsolved Asrrin/CB theory and Ankeli attacking Asrrin so fiercely while shooting down the godfather idea. I think it's safe to say that if Ankeli is mafia he's ignoring the godfather theory to protect his godfather. So if we lynch him and he turns out mafia then we can clear Asrrin and damn CB as the godfather. All mafia are outed and we win.
However if Ankeli turns out town then he simply believed what he did and tunneled on Asrrin because he thought Asrrin was mafia. We've lost a (vanilla by his claim) townie, but we got two people with PR's that we can nail by two people watching other people. We tell them who to target and if one of them doesn't do so. He's the mafia and we know who the doc is and we don't need to risk lynching the doc.
If we decide to test the Asrrin/CB angle we need to decide what theory we think is more plausible:
1) The mafia godfather is NK immune because we have more than one killing team and more than one switching role. His first NK target got redirected onto himself and he survives but was seen targeting himself. This same guy targeted Ivan last night to NK him, but the kill got protected. Asrrin was seen targeting TC on a night of two killings. TC was a possible NK target and as such a possible doc target. Asrrin was again seen by two people last night targeting Ivan, to protect him from an NK.
2) The godfather is still unknown and CG saw the doc target himself on day one, either due to switches or not. The doc was again seen protecting Ivan last night. Asrrin would be the mafia hitman in this case. Targeting Ivan for a kill last night. But with two kills on the night that Asrrin targeted TC, what was he doing?
I'm leaning towards 1) because of the amount of information roles on the town side and the number of switches and killing factions it's likely the mafia must have some protection against chance. Plus asrrin's targeting of TC is an anomaly that doesn't fit if he wasn't protecting him.
Say we lynch CB and he flips town doc. We know Asrrin was the hitman, but we still don't know whether Ankeli is town or simply bussing his partner Asrrin. With the doc gone and Ankeli likely to not be using a PR that night we can't watch any of the would be targets to find out who's targeting who in the suspect list.
If we lynch CB and he comes up as the godfather, we know Ankeli was protecting him and we have all four scum and the doc is still alive.
Of course it works the other way around too. If Asrrin comes up doc then CB is the godfather and Ankeli his partner. If Asrrin comes up mafia than CB is the doc, but Ankeli is still uncertain.
TL;DR: We should catch all the scum today and systematicly finish them off. Check the above for scenario's.
If we lynch town we'll end up 5v4v1 tonight. The SK kills mafia. Mafia kills SK. It's 5v3v0. We lynch the rest of the confirmed mafia and we win.
If we lynch mafia we'll end up 6v3v1. Sk kills mafia, mafia kills SK. It's 6v2v0 and we win.
If the mafia decide to kill town instead of the SK then we'll either be on 4v3v1 if we lynched town and in the end on 1v0v1 and the SK wins with us. And 5v2v1 if we lynched scum, which ends up 3v1v0 and we win.
Either way we're in good shape I think. I vote for lynching Ankeli as that's the best way of confirming all the mafia.
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Doing this in the morning on only one cup of coffee, but I think I got it all right.
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
It's the best way ensure town wins. If you're mafia we know everyone and we win. If you're town it's the best possible mislynch because we can catch all the other scum knowing how you flipped.
It's the best way ensure town wins. If you're mafia we know everyone and we win. If you're town it's the best possible mislynch because we can catch all the other scum knowing how you flipped.
Kraz3yIvan
New member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Does not quite work like that TC - remember my forensic kit allows Loz to target a body and someone else. He then gets a result of whether that person killed that other player so its not an auto win by any stretch.
I was informed my current project was destroyed last night but I salvaged a forensic kit from it - I have forwarded this to another player so we now have Loz and someone else with kits (I can reveal who if needed)
It was really a mistake from me looking at it now to mention it a few days ago, I thought I would of got taken out sooner tbh but the mafia have waited to target me it seems last night (thanks whoever saved me!) my work did not survive sadly it was a full DNA kit that would have allowed a positive killer ID for a dead body and it was a one shot create ability - sorry guys my bad.
I've had a quick looky at the thead (been out last night being bank holiday here) so I'm not at my sharpest but we have to get a positive result today to win this - the following from Sathoris sounds structurally OK
Loz, Ivan, TC and CG are all confirmed town. That's four out of 6. Knowing my alignement and one of CoolguyBad and Asrrin being the doc. (Hey, anyone would've found the mystery person anyway.)* Makes 6 out of 6.
That leaves Bad Ash, Techno, Asrrin/CoolguyBad, Ankeli and Zarniwoop as four mafia and one SK
Techno, Bad Ash, Ankeli and one of Asrrin/CB are mafia. Zarni's been coasting all game, not much interaction with any player. It's either him or Ankeli.
*There's also a chance Loz is the doctor, we never learned anything from his role. All we know is he got Ivan's item. If the person in question is Loz we must ask ourselves whether mafia can receive items too. In a game where the town has a lot of information roles it wouldn't be bizarry, but unlikely.
I'm glad noodle turned up positive for us he just did not feel right all game to me so to business I'd like to see the Ankeli/Asrrin situation solved soon as its hurting us make clear decisions and lets not forget Techno, Zarni also in my eyes good picks.
When I sober up I'm going to re-read the first few days of the thread to see if we can put what we know now to activity then it make help you never know.
Does not quite work like that TC - remember my forensic kit allows Loz to target a body and someone else. He then gets a result of whether that person killed that other player so its not an auto win by any stretch.
I was informed my current project was destroyed last night but I salvaged a forensic kit from it - I have forwarded this to another player so we now have Loz and someone else with kits (I can reveal who if needed)
It was really a mistake from me looking at it now to mention it a few days ago, I thought I would of got taken out sooner tbh but the mafia have waited to target me it seems last night (thanks whoever saved me!) my work did not survive sadly it was a full DNA kit that would have allowed a positive killer ID for a dead body and it was a one shot create ability - sorry guys my bad.
I've had a quick looky at the thead (been out last night being bank holiday here) so I'm not at my sharpest but we have to get a positive result today to win this - the following from Sathoris sounds structurally OK
Loz, Ivan, TC and CG are all confirmed town. That's four out of 6. Knowing my alignement and one of CoolguyBad and Asrrin being the doc. (Hey, anyone would've found the mystery person anyway.)* Makes 6 out of 6.
That leaves Bad Ash, Techno, Asrrin/CoolguyBad, Ankeli and Zarniwoop as four mafia and one SK
Techno, Bad Ash, Ankeli and one of Asrrin/CB are mafia. Zarni's been coasting all game, not much interaction with any player. It's either him or Ankeli.
*There's also a chance Loz is the doctor, we never learned anything from his role. All we know is he got Ivan's item. If the person in question is Loz we must ask ourselves whether mafia can receive items too. In a game where the town has a lot of information roles it wouldn't be bizarry, but unlikely.
I'm glad noodle turned up positive for us he just did not feel right all game to me so to business I'd like to see the Ankeli/Asrrin situation solved soon as its hurting us make clear decisions and lets not forget Techno, Zarni also in my eyes good picks.
When I sober up I'm going to re-read the first few days of the thread to see if we can put what we know now to activity then it make help you never know.
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Sathoris, I'm a bit reluctant to trust your theories at the moment, considering we know nothing about you. But, before we take any actions against Ankeli/Asrrin, there's something I need to share.
I investigated Goryani's body today (the bodyguard), and it seems he protected Ankeli the first night and Marahumm the second. There are two options here. Either Ankeli was targeted by the mafia (since Feysal was most likely the target of the SK) and Goryani protected him, but then that means the bodyguard doesn't die instead of his target. And the second option would be that Ankeli was not targeted by anyone and there is another reason for the lack of a death on the first night.
Sathoris, I'm a bit reluctant to trust your theories at the moment, considering we know nothing about you. But, before we take any actions against Ankeli/Asrrin, there's something I need to share.
I investigated Goryani's body today (the bodyguard), and it seems he protected Ankeli the first night and Marahumm the second. There are two options here. Either Ankeli was targeted by the mafia (since Feysal was most likely the target of the SK) and Goryani protected him, but then that means the bodyguard doesn't die instead of his target. And the second option would be that Ankeli was not targeted by anyone and there is another reason for the lack of a death on the first night.
CoolguyBad
New member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Why would you say my name Sathoris? Thanks a lot... Look at how my 2nd to last post specifically attempts to get Asrrin to name his role. Oh well, that probably clears you as pro-town now.
Asrrin, you already said you're not doctor either. Cal, are you sure of your ability? I don't get how Asrrin targeted TC night 2 when two other deaths happened while TC remained alive. Asrrin, what is your ability? You're still going with the angle that you're not the protector right, because if you are, that would clear me too.
Since Sathoris already said it (-.-), I'm Doctor. Night 1 i protected myself (duh, I don't know or trust anyone yet). Night 2 and 3 I went with Mara. I wasn't sure if he was the one targeted because the description of that no NK night 3 did not make the reason of survival as obvious as this one. I was heavily leaning towards the fact I saved him though, therefore making him cop. Night 4 was TC because I was scared we would have 2 bodies again, making his ability needed. Night 5 was Krazey because he said he had something useful in 2 days.
Yeah, I know this doesn't clear me by any means, but might as well tell you guys now. Take that mafia/SK!
Why would you say my name Sathoris? Thanks a lot... Look at how my 2nd to last post specifically attempts to get Asrrin to name his role. Oh well, that probably clears you as pro-town now.
Asrrin, you already said you're not doctor either. Cal, are you sure of your ability? I don't get how Asrrin targeted TC night 2 when two other deaths happened while TC remained alive. Asrrin, what is your ability? You're still going with the angle that you're not the protector right, because if you are, that would clear me too.
Since Sathoris already said it (-.-), I'm Doctor. Night 1 i protected myself (duh, I don't know or trust anyone yet). Night 2 and 3 I went with Mara. I wasn't sure if he was the one targeted because the description of that no NK night 3 did not make the reason of survival as obvious as this one. I was heavily leaning towards the fact I saved him though, therefore making him cop. Night 4 was TC because I was scared we would have 2 bodies again, making his ability needed. Night 5 was Krazey because he said he had something useful in 2 days.
Yeah, I know this doesn't clear me by any means, but might as well tell you guys now. Take that mafia/SK!
LozHinge the Unhinged
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Sathoris' analysis looks good but it is a higher risk strategy than I like. Plus with four mafia and a SK still in the mix, I prefer to get some breathing space and lynch some mafia who are less uncertain than Ankeli. After all, we still get the option to lynch Ankeli tomorrow or subsequently.
I have some reservations about Sath's conclusions, particularly as they pertain to the end-game, and lynching Techno is lower risk all the way around, in my view.
Sathoris' analysis looks good but it is a higher risk strategy than I like. Plus with four mafia and a SK still in the mix, I prefer to get some breathing space and lynch some mafia who are less uncertain than Ankeli. After all, we still get the option to lynch Ankeli tomorrow or subsequently.
I have some reservations about Sath's conclusions, particularly as they pertain to the end-game, and lynching Techno is lower risk all the way around, in my view.
CoolguyBad
New member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
I'm going to restate this in case it was missed: the fact that Sathoris knew my name would make him pro town. If Cal would agree that I am the mystery person, you can comfirm this fact.
I'm going to restate this in case it was missed: the fact that Sathoris knew my name would make him pro town. If Cal would agree that I am the mystery person, you can comfirm this fact.
LozHinge the Unhinged
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
TC, the usual role of Bodyguard means that if the person he is protecting is targeted for a NK, the person trying to perform the NK dies instead.
Uraj's version of Bodyguard may be different - point being we don't know what effect a Bodyguard has/had in this round.
CoolguyBad ... I gotta think about this ...
TC, the usual role of Bodyguard means that if the person he is protecting is targeted for a NK, the person trying to perform the NK dies instead.
Uraj's version of Bodyguard may be different - point being we don't know what effect a Bodyguard has/had in this round.
CoolguyBad ... I gotta think about this ...
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
A bodyguards dies when he protects someone who's attacked. Can you explain the bolded part? What is the other reason? The only reason I see is the redirected kill on the godfather or CB got targeted by the kill and he protected himself at the same time. This also means our watcher results only have a chance to show more than one person.
A bodyguards dies when he protects someone who's attacked. Can you explain the bolded part? What is the other reason? The only reason I see is the redirected kill on the godfather or CB got targeted by the kill and he protected himself at the same time. This also means our watcher results only have a chance to show more than one person.
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
I believe that was a good move CoolguyBad, if Asrrin is mafia, he would have known there's a doc alive and wouldn't have claimed doc, but something else.
Here's a list of people and what we know about them:
1. Asrrin: Most likely hitman as the only people that targeted Ivan last night were CoolguyBad and him.
2. CoolguyBad: Doctor. Claims to have protected himself the first day, followed by Marahumm on the second and third, me on the fourth and Ivan last night.
3. Zarniwoop: unkown, speculated to be the SK.
4. ThunderCat: Assistant Coroner.
5. Bad Ash: unknown, no other information.
6. Technomancer: unknown, lurker.
7. Sathoris: No role known, claims to have had a one shot watcher ability and saw two poeple target Ivan last night. Asrrin and someone else.
8. Caluin Graye: Investigative reporter. I forget who he saw and when, except for last night, so a recap of those actions would be nice.
9. Krazeyivan: Inventor, sent LoZ an item on night 3(?) and someone else last night.
10. Ankeli: Claims vanilla townie. Was protected by Goryani on the first night resulting in a no NK night.
11. LozHinge the Unhinged: No role known. Received an item from Ivan, most likely town.
So, considering that Asrrin and CoolguyBad (the doctor) targeted LoZ last night, we can conclude that Asrrin was the one responsabile for the attempt on Ivan.
Unvote: Technomancer
Vote: Asrrin
Maybe Gorny had something to do with that? I know from previous games that whenever Gorny is a bus driver, the swaps himself with someone else almost all nights.
I believe that was a good move CoolguyBad, if Asrrin is mafia, he would have known there's a doc alive and wouldn't have claimed doc, but something else.
Here's a list of people and what we know about them:
1. Asrrin: Most likely hitman as the only people that targeted Ivan last night were CoolguyBad and him.
2. CoolguyBad: Doctor. Claims to have protected himself the first day, followed by Marahumm on the second and third, me on the fourth and Ivan last night.
3. Zarniwoop: unkown, speculated to be the SK.
4. ThunderCat: Assistant Coroner.
5. Bad Ash: unknown, no other information.
6. Technomancer: unknown, lurker.
7. Sathoris: No role known, claims to have had a one shot watcher ability and saw two poeple target Ivan last night. Asrrin and someone else.
8. Caluin Graye: Investigative reporter. I forget who he saw and when, except for last night, so a recap of those actions would be nice.
9. Krazeyivan: Inventor, sent LoZ an item on night 3(?) and someone else last night.
10. Ankeli: Claims vanilla townie. Was protected by Goryani on the first night resulting in a no NK night.
11. LozHinge the Unhinged: No role known. Received an item from Ivan, most likely town.
So, considering that Asrrin and CoolguyBad (the doctor) targeted LoZ last night, we can conclude that Asrrin was the one responsabile for the attempt on Ivan.
Unvote: Technomancer
Vote: Asrrin
Maybe Gorny had something to do with that? I know from previous games that whenever Gorny is a bus driver, the swaps himself with someone else almost all nights.
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
replace "targeted loz last night" with "targeted Ivan last night".
replace "targeted loz last night" with "targeted Ivan last night".
LozHinge the Unhinged
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Are we agreed that we are waiting for whoever received an item from KI to reveal?
I've had a strong Town vibe and latterly a pretty strong Doc vibe from CoolguyBad - I am not 100% convinced, but I am prepared to vote based upon his claim.
Are we agreed that we are waiting for whoever received an item from KI to reveal?
I've had a strong Town vibe and latterly a pretty strong Doc vibe from CoolguyBad - I am not 100% convinced, but I am prepared to vote based upon his claim.
ThunderCat
Active member
Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.
Regarding whoever Ivan gave the item to, they should not reveal that unless said person is not already a confirmed town player. Having an item makes one a target for the mafia, especially since the game is getting smaller and there are higher chances that said item would catch a mafia.
Regarding whoever Ivan gave the item to, they should not reveal that unless said person is not already a confirmed town player. Having an item makes one a target for the mafia, especially since the game is getting smaller and there are higher chances that said item would catch a mafia.
