Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Many of the things you said makes sense Cal. With that said, Asrrin, are you a doctor? That seems like it would be the only scenario that will clear you.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

So, Ankeli swears that he Asrrin is mafia and is willing to get himself lynched first in order to persuade us Asrrin is mafia.
I would like to hear two things, if you all agree this is the best course of action.

I would like Ankeli to give us the reason why he's so sure (100%?) that Asrrin is mafia, followed by a claim from Asrrin.

Main question is, can we take the risk and possibly lynch our doc? Can we still go on and win without the doc? And even if we do lynch the doc, the next day we would get a mafia, or we get lucky and lynch the mafia today and still have the doctor alive. Then the mafia would have to take a chance in killing the doc as LoZ can use his item and see who killed the doctor, basically giving us another mafia member.

 

[zarniwoop]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Vote: Bad Ash

 

[Bad Ash]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Bad Ash, you are proposing what I consider to be a two-step journey to a Town loss.

Scenario One: We lynch Ankeli, who flips town. We lynch Asrrin, who may or may not prove mafia. Town lose.
Scenario Two: Ankeli proves mafia, clears Asrrin and clears you as well. With you and Asrrin "cleared", we are likely to lose.

BA just became my sure-fire lynch candidate (after Technomancer).

it doesnt clear anything or anyone as at this stage of the game we are either going to non-lynch or mafia are going to vote for their comrades to try to gain credibility IMO.

Scenario 3: We dont lynch a mafia today and we would need a miracle to win the game. Ankeli has been way off his game (zarni says I have and I completely disagree)

 

[Technomancer]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Alright! :alright: We got us a Mafia yesterday AND a failed NK last night! Ladies and gents, we're back in this!

Ok, this Asrrin thing is making my head hurt. He and... I'll call him Anon... both targeted Ivan last night then. It looks like one of them has to be the Doc and the other the killer right? If there is another busdriver, this could get complicated though. That's possible too though, cause we never really figured out what went on with the N2 kill failure (N2 going off of Cal's numbering, the night after Leo/Laarz). I wasn't sure that it was a Doc save, but after reading the explicit hinting of "Doctor" in today's story, I'm inclined to think that whoever was targeted on N2 was NK immune then. Would there be any town roles that would be NK immune? That seems like that would be rather over-powered, but you guys may know. If not, then it's possible that kill was switched towards the Godfather. Again. If there's another bus-driver, and this has been going on, then they probably know who the Godfather is.

Also, apparently the SK theory about only acting every other night is correct, so tonight, we may be faced with a double kill if he misses the mafia. We may want to take that into any calculations.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

It just hit me. The bus driver. If Gorny targeted him-self and the second person I saw, then that would've deflected the mafia hit back upon itself.

This accounts for why nobody died on night one.

This accounts for why TC isn't dead on night 2.

Mafia people are valid NK targets. A hitman getting switched back to himself would've died. Period.

Night 0: Start of game. I see someone targeting themselves. Nobody is killed.

Day 1: Feysal gets poisoned, dies.

Night 1: Leo goes missing, Laarz is dead. This is the night Asrrin targeted TC.

etc, etc.

I'm saying that if on night 0, before we ever had any day phase, the mafia place a hit on someone. Gorny just happens to luckily switch that person with the hitman, resulting in me seeing someone targeting them-self, and since mafia targets aren't legal target for NKs, it's invalid.

It's the only thing that makes sense right now, unless there's some other evidence that someone can present.

Unvote: Asrrin

Don't let Sathoris persuade you. He must be in the same team with Asrrin.

Hmm, mafia are valid NK targets if they get switched. A godfather however is often NK immune and any mafia member can usually function as hitman.

So what is possible is that the person you saw targetting themselves is the mafia godfather being switched with his own target so he's effectivly targeting himself with the NK, but survives because he's the godfather.

This same person is seen targeting Ivan last night. Along with Asrrin who has been known to target TC without killing TC. TC was a possible NK target after claiming so he's also a probable doc target.

I can tell you my other ability is a manipulation ignore. Which means the person I target can't be roleblocked, switched, redirected, or mimicked. This could be one of the things that happened to the person you saw targeting himself on N0(1).

So either that guy is the mafia godfather (NK immune) or he's the doc. Clearing or damning Asrrin whichever way he flips.

Bohonkey. Godfathers are very very rarely NK immune. They are immune to cop investigations, not to NK's. Especially in a game with so many anti-town a godfather role alone would be very powerful, let alone one that cannot be switched a NK to.

Dont have much time as I am not at my home (mem day weekend) but will try to post as much as I can. To say the least I am pleased with the result of Noodles lynch. As I didnt expect to take the blame if he was pro-town, I am not expecting a clear path for him being the mafia traitor as I didnt know I was doing the locking vote. I have to assume he had been recruited or he would have shown up as pro-town wouldnt he? I have no idea

Vote: Ankeli

Has to be dirty. Has played dirty the entire game and I dont believe him to be town. I think his alignment will also reveal wether asrrin is dirty or not as they have been sparring the last couple of days. Ankeli loves his tunnel vision

So I suppose you're not in the same mafia group with Asrrin and Sathoris?

So, Ankeli swears that he Asrrin is mafia and is willing to get himself lynched first in order to persuade us Asrrin is mafia.
I would like to hear two things, if you all agree this is the best course of action.

I would like Ankeli to give us the reason why he's so sure (100%?) that Asrrin is mafia, followed by a claim from Asrrin.

Main question is, can we take the risk and possibly lynch our doc? Can we still go on and win without the doc? And even if we do lynch the doc, the next day we would get a mafia, or we get lucky and lynch the mafia today and still have the doctor alive. Then the mafia would have to take a chance in killing the doc as LoZ can use his item and see who killed the doctor, basically giving us another mafia member.

He is not the doctor. I have no evidence to back it up except his behaviour, especially yesterday, regarding sharing the information. My gut feelings about people tend to be more correct than not, and If I've ever been certain about someone without being certain (if that makes sense), it's Asrrin.

I promised to claim my role. I'm a City Slicker, so nothing special there. This is the reason why I trust Zarniwoop to be pro-town, as he was the first one to react to Valhauros' (was it?) copy pasted role PM, saying that it wasn't pasted word to word. It wasn't.

Now, if you want to, lynch me first and prove my claim for whatever good it will do, but please oh please don't fall for a NK immune godfather + busdriver switch story. It's more seethrough than Lady Gaga's dresses.

Vote: Asrrin

 

[CoolguyBad]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Ankeli, can you explain then, how Asrrin targeted TC on night 2 (according to Cal) and had was not killed?

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Sorry I'm in late today. Memorial day weekend, and I've not spent much time at the computer. I got baked like a lobster swimming today and hurt like a sonofagun, and I went out to observe tonight to boot.

I'm not going to do any theorycrafting, as it's past 1am here for me and I'm tired and sore, but I will say that I'd prefer not to reveal my full role unless I absolutely have to. If the mafia knew what I was my role would be rather useless I think. Even saying that might give them enough clue to guess, so please, unless I'm about to be lynched don't shout it out if you think you know what I am.

 

[Asrrin]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Of course Ankeli would vote me. He's been gunning for me since the beginning. If I didn't think I knew better, I'd say he has a lyncher role.

I'm pretty sure either Ankeli or Techno are mafia, or both, are mafia. Ankeli for the reasons I stated yesterday, and Techno because he has all the classic tells (big one being he congratulated the doc today, in a round-about way.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Ankeli, can you explain then, how Asrrin targeted TC on night 2 (according to Cal) and had was not killed?

Bodyguard / the real doctor.

Sorry I'm in late today. Memorial day weekend, and I've not spent much time at the computer. I got baked like a lobster swimming today and hurt like a sonofagun, and I went out to observe tonight to boot.

I'm not going to do any theorycrafting, as it's past 1am here for me and I'm tired and sore, but I will say that I'd prefer not to reveal my full role unless I absolutely have to. If the mafia knew what I was my role would be rather useless I think. Even saying that might give them enough clue to guess, so please, unless I'm about to be lynched don't shout it out if you think you know what I am.

Oh come one. You're either mafia or presumably the doctor (which you are not.). There is absolutely nothing to lose. In all seriousness with these odds you should have been targeted last night for a night kill if you were the doctor. Instead you were the one going after people, not the one rescuing them.

There is absolutely no harm in doing your fake full role claim right now. Come on, I dare you. Or do you need more time to make it plausible and even somewhat believable?

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

17 minutes later, you're still viewing the thread and no answer. Figures. Having a hard time coming up with that "doctor with a twist that really isn't the doctor" because you'd be instantly nullified by the real doctor if you claimed just that?

It's really a shame that the real doctor can't claim yet as he can still be useful.

Either way, I take no offense if you people choose to lynch me. Just don't let Asrrin and Sathoris slither away from it tomorrow if you choose me over Asrrin today.

 

[LozHinge the Unhinged]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Bodyguard / the real doctor.

Does not add up. Had Asrrin targeted TC as well as the Bodyguard doing so, Asrrin would have died. Unless he is the Godfather, of course. Hmm. A doubt.
We have seen that multiple targetings of a single player can take place. If more than one player targeted TC that night, we may have seen that. So it's possible that the (non-Asrrin) Doc did not target TC. Asrrin is still a possible Doc/Godfather. Too many unknowns.

Oh come one. You're either mafia or presumably the doctor (which you are not.). There is absolutely nothing to lose. In all seriousness with these odds you should have been targeted last night for a night kill if you were the doctor. Instead you were the one going after people, not the one rescuing them.

WIFOM reasoning. If the Doc clearly going to save himself in the night, he isn't a good target for the mafia that night. The Doc would know this so he may try to save someone else instead. The mafia would know this and would target the Doc. Etc, etc, etc.

There is absolutely no harm in doing your fake full role claim right now. Come on, I dare you. Or do you need more time to make it plausible and even somewhat believable?

You are pushing so hard for someone you have a feeling is mafia. At this stage of the game. When we have better targets and are so close to losing if we mis-lynch, let alone mis-lynch the Doctor, if that is what Asrrin really is.

17 minutes later, you're still viewing the thread and no answer. Figures. Having a hard time coming up with that "doctor with a twist that really isn't the doctor" because you'd be instantly nullified by the real doctor if you claimed just that?

It's really a shame that the real doctor can't claim yet as he can still be useful.

Either way, I take no offense if you people choose to lynch me. Just don't let Asrrin and Sathoris slither away from it tomorrow if you choose me over Asrrin today.

Yikes, Ankeli, you have nearly caught with Bad Ash on my lynch-list.

I am not convinced that Asrrin is the Doc. Or mafia. He simply could be either at the moment. There are others I am more certain of as being mafia, and until we get some breathing space and lynch some mafiosi, we have to play very smart - not the wild percentages or personal agendas that seem to be suggested by some folk.

Zarniwoop, is there a reason you would want to see Bad Ash lynched before Technomancer?

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

You are pushing so hard for someone you have a feeling is mafia. At this stage of the game. When we have better targets and are so close to losing if we mis-lynch, let alone mis-lynch the Doctor, if that is what Asrrin really is.

Better targets? Please, do share. Asrrin's been caught on the scene twice, and hasn't claimed doc, has survived ever since even though the only valid reason for being there as a pro-town player would be being the doc.

S to the C to the U to the M.

 

[LozHinge the Unhinged]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Ankeli, why are you reading some of my posts and not others? The selective reading and commenting of the kind you are practicing this game do not inspire me in confidence.

Answer these:
Is there a chance that Asrrin is the Doc?
How likely is it that Technomancer is town-aligned?
How likely is it that Bad Ash is town-aligned?

If you are convinced about Asrrin not being the Doc, then I completely get where you are coming from. However, the town acts on a consensus of people's opinions and your one-man crusade is not looking town-aligned to me, you are ignoring the valid concerns that others have raised. I say one-man, as it seems to be only you that are pushing so hard.

Do you agree, as a town-aligned player, with people's apparent reservations about lynching Asrrin, that exploring other options is a sensible and safer course of action? All your theory-crafting about Asrrin is doing is confirming the doubt I have about his alignment - but I already have sufficient doubt and you aren't convincing me one way or the other.

Asrrin hasn't claimed Doc - I can think of two reasons why he wouldn't. I won't elucidate at this point, I'll let you consider awhile.

My analysis of the game structure:
We have a number of (believably-) claimed and proven Town PR's in this game. Therefore we must have a powerful mafia in the game. That means one Mafia team of "up to five players", which is worse for the town than two mafia factions. The likelihood of many different types of Town PR that can target in the night is high, to balance the power of the mafia.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Answer these:
Is there a chance that Asrrin is the Doc?
How likely is it that Technomancer is town-aligned?
How likely is it that Bad Ash is town-aligned?

1. No. Not after he wanted information from Cal about who targetted TC on N2(was it?). If he were the person responsible for the no death scenario he wouldn't have wanted that information released. And not after being present in 2 such scenarios now.
2. I really can't say about him. 50/50. The ones I can pin as anti-town atm are BA, Asrrin and Sathoris.
3. Not very.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

And before anyone tries to avert my words, I wanted information about who targeted TC as well, but I only asked if it was Asrrin, and asked Cal to keep the name to himself were it not Asrrin.

Asrrin was obviously fishing for the name of the doctor while trying to create a cover up for himself as a doctor.

 

[ThunderCat]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

There are 11 players alive. With 4 mafia remaining, that's 7 townies out of which 4 are confirmed. I say we take the risk and have Asrrin claim. As soon as he claims we can figure out if we should lynch him, or someone else.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

There are 11 players alive. With 4 mafia remaining, that's 7 townies out of which 4 are confirmed. I say we take the risk and have Asrrin claim. As soon as he claims we can figure out if we should lynch him, or someone else.

Oh I agree, I'd love to hear his claim. I can hardly stay in my pants waiting for the doc with a twist claim. Wonder what he'll come up with?

 

[Sathoris]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Vote: Bad Ash

Not so fast, we'll decide later on who we want the SK to vote for.

Don't let Sathoris persuade you. He must be in the same team with Asrrin.

Just because you only see one scenario doesn't mean others should be just as blind. Take a look at all the options and decide afterwards. No need to rush things. Unless you want a quick mislynch ofcourse..

Bohonkey. Godfathers are very very rarely NK immune. They are immune to cop investigations, not to NK's. Especially in a game with so many anti-town a godfather role alone would be very powerful, let alone one that cannot be switched a NK to.

If there's a different killing power out there than the mafia. Like a vigilante or an SK. We already have an SK confirmed and perhaps there was a vigilante aswell at the start of the game. Then the mafia godfather likely has a NK immune passive ability aswell. Add a busdriver in there and kills could be flying all over the place. An NK immune godfather isn't out of place here and given the events, a likely probability.

I promised to claim my role. I'm a City Slicker, so nothing special there. This is the reason why I trust Zarniwoop to be pro-town, as he was the first one to react to Valhauros' (was it?) copy pasted role PM, saying that it wasn't pasted word to word. It wasn't.

Zarni is 95% the SK so siding with him isn't the most purdent of moves.

There are 11 players alive. With 4 mafia remaining, that's 7 townies out of which 4 are confirmed. I say we take the risk and have Asrrin claim. As soon as he claims we can figure out if we should lynch him, or someone else.

Yeahh, only you forgot the SK, making it 6v4v1. And we want the SK to start killing mafia if we want to stay alive.

 

[Ankeli1]

Re: Ravenwood Retreat Mafia Game.

Zarni is 95% the SK so siding with him isn't the most purdent of moves.

How do you explain our "SK" knowing the exact role PM of Valhauros then? Only vanilla townies could've had that information. Even if he had killed a vanilla townie earlier on he wouldn't have known the exact wording, and that Valhauros' post wasn't an exact replica of the role pm.

Sorry, no dice. You and Asrrin must go.