Map seed and item drop

[DudSpud]

Map seed and item drop

I fear this thread could degenerate into a "philosophical discussion" (ie flame war), and I want to say up front I AM NOT ASKING FOR SEEDS, but I would like to know...

I have had a lot of trouble in HC recently getting to Guardian, so I decided to make a Blizz sorc (ok, 2, RIP Clara_VI on her way to Hell AT...) to farm for better items (I lost many of the good ones to Deeds). Single tree sorcs are easier than I thought through Conqueror, and I decided to begin with NM Meph after lvling to 80 in Baal runs.

Maybe I am just a newb, but I have noticed that the drops are strikingly different depending on the map I have. My maps changed only because I typically drink and drive (my toon), and several times I have accidently changed acts, thus losing my previous map. Oh, and I am talking hundreds of runs per change of seed. My first seed dropped Tal's hats like crazy, but no Viper's. Then Viper's all day (though all < 30 AllRes ), but no Tal hats. You get the idea.

So my question - does map seed influence TC's or other drop chances? I ask, because I am on the hunt for a Titan's, and Clara _VII is on the same seed for several hundred runs, and though all the 'Gazes are nice, I am starting to suspect it is time to move on.

Thanks, and probably sorry,
TehSpud

 

[Colorless Green]

Re: Map seed and item drop

RTB says no. My experience says yes.

Seed definitely plays a role in some drops (racks), but monster/chest drops are significantly more complex. To the best of my knowledge (and I've discussed this with a lot of very knowledgable people), there isn't hard proof either way, and I don't expect that there ever will be. So, just bear in mind that everything everyone says in response to this is an opinion.

RTB's opinion (last time I argued with him about it) was that it's random and that my mind is just picking patterns out of the randomness (as it's designed to do), and that some things dropping frequently while others don't drop enough (as compared to the ATMA drop calc) is normal in a random set.

I'm inclined to believe him in that he knows more about the actual mechanics of the game than pretty much anyone else AFAIK, however there is no actual "random" in computers without an outside seed, so there's definitely the possibility of patterns, and I've definitely had seeds that produced certain items FAR more often than others (and not just over like 15 runs. over thousands to tens of thousands). I personally choose to believe it has an effect, even though I'm rationally (mostly) convinced it's purely superstition.

-CG

edit: last two para's came after thy and corr posted. Spent too much time choosing words.

edit2: corr's right, it takes a LOT to get a specific item. You haven't necessarily run enough to have dropped it regardless of the seed's effect. If you're a victim of the same superstition I am, though, by all means change it.

edit3: a couple examples: when I first joined the SPF, I did ~3k meph runs and didn't find a HoZ (while I found ~8 stormshields). During SPL08, I did 1k meph runs on the same seed and found 6 bartuc's, one occy, and no other exceptional class specifics.

edit4: get the hell out from RTB's shadow, everybody. Everyone's fallible.

 

[Thyiad1]

Re: Map seed and item drop

It seems to be generally considered that map seed effects drop types (although thats what I think). Which is why it is important to be careful with the use of the comman.

I'll leave this open until someone with better maths turns up. And thanks for the caps, Dud; made it a quick skim read before moving my hand away from the close button.

EDIT:
I don't intend to argue maths with RTB, but I also disagree.

 

[Corrupted]

Re: Map seed and item drop

Nope, not really

You need thousands of runs to be sure to have 1 of each of what Mephisto can drop. Persistance is the key
The weapon and armor racks can however be very stable if you're able to replicate the same movement pattern in all your runs. If you're very lucky you could potentially get a ceremonial javelin rack and a lacquered plate rack next to meph

 

[DudSpud]

Re: Map seed and item drop

EDIT:
I don't intend to argue maths with RTB, but I also disagree.

Ditto.

Drat. RTB says my "experience" is, as Colorless Green suggests, just my fallible brain trying to impose patterns were there are none, failing to comprehend the vagaries of statistics.

Oh well, back to the seed I have... It does have the WP really close to the stairs, and maybe I'll get a better Vipers!

Or not.

TehSpud

 

[maareek]

Re: Map seed and item drop

It may have a limited impact, but I doubt it's enough to go trying to find a roll that has a good map for your chosen target and better than usual odds for the item you're looking for (how you could possibly decipher this without the item dropping is beyond me).

I would tend to agree with RTB that it is most likely just your mind trying to create a pattern that isn't there, but it's certainly possible that there is some bearing because this isn't a truly random system.

If you do decidated MF runs for awhile you will have times where it seems like you're getting a bunch of one item or another (especially if you have a lot of x item and you're looking for y), and the key to getting past that is generally to just keep on grinding. If you have a good map, just keep running it until you get what you want or get fed up. Honestly (sadly), a few hundred Meph runs doesn't really mean much. Almost *anything* can happen in such a limited amount of runs.

 

[Rapha]

Re: Map seed and item drop

Obviously it cannot be proven either way, but my personal and anecdotal evidence suggests that the map seed affects the drops to some extent. I do not believe that it determines which items can drop and which items cannot, but I suspect that it affects the probability for a given item to drop -- somewhat like racks' behaviour.

 

[maareek]

Re: Map seed and item drop

I just don't see how that information even does you any good if you could prove it. You couldn't really be sure what patterns your seed had until you had already done thousands of runs and gotten some kind of numbers to compare. Regardless of whether it affects drops at all or not you're still looking at the cold hard reality: it takes a lot of runs to find good items unless you get lucky. And you can get lucky regardless of map seed.

To the OP: If re-rolling your map satiates some superstition within you, then go ahead, but I can't see any real reason to do so outside of that. Even if your seed has lower than normal odds for dropping the item you seek, there is no guarantee that the next one will be any better (and, in fact, the odds would most likely be against it being much improved, if seeds do indeed affect drop chances) and even if your odds are slightly better than usual you could still be looking at lots of runs to find a specific item.

As for anecdotal evidence: I'm pretty sure anybody who has done any MFing has something they can throw out that would seem to support some seeds being really good for certain items. I know I do. But I don't see how that is a legitimate reason to re-roll a good map, since that could very easily be attributed to luck. Especially since it seems impossible to say whether seeds do affect drops at all anyway.

 

[Nightfind]

Re: Map seed and item drop

Well, I am a believer of the map seed affecting drops. I had something weird happen to me in DII 1.09 Classic that has made me switch my maps quite a bit for MFing. I had an Amazon in Act 4 that I was leveling, I'd walk down the stairs from the town and kill a unique monster + minions. The unique boss ended up dropping a rare Gothic bow. It was a better bow for me, so I equipped it. That exact same bow dropped a few days later with the same name and stats(identical in every way) from the same pack of monsters waiting at the bottom of the stairs. And, just to be clear, I have never used the seed command.
Ever since that, I like changing maps.

Nightfind

 

[Corrupted]

Re: Map seed and item drop

Are you sure it wasn't 1.06? The pre-LoD versions use seed in a very different manner afaik.

 

[nebux1]

Re: Map seed and item drop

Nope, not really

You need thousands of runs to be sure to have 1 of each of what Mephisto can drop. Persistance is the key
The weapon and armor racks can however be very stable if you're able to replicate the same movement pattern in all your runs. If you're very lucky you could potentially get a ceremonial javelin rack and a lacquered plate rack next to meph

i was lucky with tal armor here near hell meph

 

[Aconite]

Re: Map seed and item drop

My mind has convinced me through anecdotal evidence that character name, too, has an effect on drops...

 

[Jcakes1]

Re: Map seed and item drop

My mind has convinced me through anecdotal evidence that character name, too, has an effect on drops...

ooo do tell, what name is the luckiest for you?

 

[Low Key]

Re: Map seed and item drop

I keep rerolling my Pindle "map" every 100 runs or so, just in case the map seed does affect drops. Figured better be safe about it.

 

[Corrupted]

Re: Map seed and item drop

I keep rerolling my Pindle "map" every 100 runs or so, just in case the map seed does affect drops. Figured better be safe about it.

Do you mean you expect to have found something by 100 runs ?

 

[Aconite]

Re: Map seed and item drop

ooo do tell, what name is the luckiest for you?

No one name seems luckier (yet) - it's more a case of seeing different items repeatedly drop with one character but never with another, given a comparative number of runs. This is based mainly on pindle and meph runs, with two different sorcs (Aconite and Amber, fwiw) - not exactly conclusive proof from such a small sample!

I'm sure it's just my perception though. :wink:

 

[cogline]

Re: Map seed and item drop

I've done so many Pindle runs that I've literally given up. There are some items I just can't find.
I have been superstitious about keeping the map seed, and I've often wondered about it.

Here's my thoughts, although it really is pure speculation.
Diablo is a Win32 application, which means it runs in code that can use 32 bits.
That means it can generate a number as high as 2 to the power of 31.
That means that on any Pindle kill, you can have that many choices when you roll for a drop. (And one of those choices will be a bare minimum drop, or, eg, nothing from a chest.)
But are there more than that number of combinations of items in the game?
Or, are there less than the maximum number of chocies available when you kill? (This would be if blocks of numbers were used for different codes, eg:
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
where one block indicates item 1 type, another item 1 quality, item 1 modifiers, item 1 durability, and so on, with another for item 2, and so on. That reduces the number of choices significantly.

HENCE we'd need multipliers, or map seeds. On map seed 1, these combinations are viable, on map seed 2, those ones are. There'll be some overlap, because to roll a ZOD, you'll have 1 way to roll a zod, with X combinations allowed.
However, cham will drop twice as often, so you have two ways to roll a cham, with the same X combinations for each.
Some of these combos might come out in map seed 1, and others in map seed 2.
But both seeds allow a cham to drop.

And so on. Of course, there would be so many ways for an EL to drop, that you could have a thousand combos in every map seed, and so never truly see the pattern.

We notice the pattern with high level runes though, because there are such a limited number of drop combinations that our brain can conceive the pattern.

What we would need to do to FIND OUT would be to list the map seed when you list the pattern.
You could also do so with high end items, such as IKSC being dropped by Pindle. Or Metal Grid being dropped by Baal. But you'd need to be specific at first to see if a combination changes due to the monster that drops it.

EG> You kill monster. Monster generates random 32 bit number. Call it XXZ.
XXZ from Pindlesking is mapped to a certain drop, being Nat's Mark and a rare amulet.
XXZ from Baal is mapped to a Herald of Zakurum, and four blue items.

I realise that this is a huge generalisation, but in my mind it could be how it works.
I have been dying to see what other people thought about how map seed affects item gen.

 

[snickersnack]

Re: Map seed and item drop

If you're very lucky you could potentially get a ceremonial javelin rack and a lacquered plate rack next to meph

I traded for tal's armor a couple of days ago, and now I notice that the armor rack next to hell meph drops laquered plates.

The fun part is the I'm ready to do some HF rushes, but I'll lose my seed if I do that.

 

[Skinhead On The MBTA]

Re: Map seed and item drop

Mathematically, map seed has nothing to do with drops.

My personal experience is that the game itself is actually psychic - it knows which item you want, and then decides to give you something else. The once it decides "you know, I think I've toyed with this person enough over the last hour/day/week/year" it finally coughs up the item you want. Of course, if you deicde you want something else, you start the whole cycle again. For instance, I've ran Mephisto many, many times, and still don't have Trang-Oul's shield.

 

[silospen1]

Re: Map seed and item drop

It's all about the chat gem.