Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Wow, thats a pretty 1337 role huh? Hope the mafia don't have anything that powerful to balance it out.

I think I'm seeing more of a picture, but need to go back and check more stuff. Its 1 am here, and we still have plenty of day left so I'm going to leave it there for now, try and go back through carefully (keep saying I'm going to do it, but something always seems to get in the way, maybe its just the prospect of facing all those 2000 word sitro-essays again :tongue

I'm no expert here on all variants of what role Aman could have (if any)
However, it is also people that the role being represented is a
Role manipulators - "Role-blocker", "Walrus", "Prostitute", "National Guardsman", "Switcher", "Bus Driver", "Thief", "Barman", etc.
These roles can stop or alter the night actions of others; for instance, they may prevent a protection or investigation from occurring, or they may change the target.

Or if I let my creative juices out it could also be a mafia president (I invert from town president) where the president has the final say on who dies. This also would explain how the mafia peers wanted one thing and resulted in the death of another.

@Sitro I stand rightly corrected on your voting history. I apologize for my error, I try and be thorough but I am fallible (I thought I saw a vote in the middle of one of your posts but relooking I was mistaken). Glad to see the table back, I thought you were going to hide it since being beaten up about so many times by the others.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Both of you bottom of post 314 I asked both of you.

Oh. When I read that it came across as more of a taunt. If it was aimed at me I assumed it was so that you'd got me to unvote you and were subsequently denying the ability for me to save face. My bad, it would seem.

Regardless, I'll still be suspicious of you. It's how I am. I'm still suspicious of aman and over the past few hours we've agreed on a lot of points! I think that's the only way for me to play these games.

In the early stages of these games it's common for mafia players to openly disagree, even vote for each other if its not too risky, in order to put some distance in between themselves. That way, if one of them gets revealed to be mafia, the other one is hopefully exonerated.

That could have been the motivation between yourself being imprisoned on Day 2, especially as nothing happened that day anyway. It could have been why you voted for Hey early on during Day 3, as the first voter on him at the time there was no serious risk of him actually being lynched. But maybe before you could get back to the thread and unvote him there was a large bandwagon and it would have looked too suspicious to back out at that point. I know I'm quite prolific with the tables of late, but here's one based on hard evidence, not arbitrary judgement. It's a comparison between the number of posts you'd made since voting for Hey and the number of votes for him overall at that point. What we're looking for is the sudden increase of votes that might catch you by surprise, in between your visits to the thread. Here's the table:

Posts since Soylentred|
     votes            | Number of votes for Hey
----------------------+------------------------
       0              |           2
       1              |           3
       2              |           4
       3              |           4
       4              |           3
       5              |           3
       6              |           8

Post 0 is your initial vote, only yourself and spigot were voting at this time. In between 3 and 4 spigot unvotes. I was quite interested while compiling this actually, as up until your fifth post after voting for Hey the number of votes on him never moved in steps greater than 1. The jump of five votes between posts 5 and 6 though fits the description of what I said we'd be looking for earlier.

What remains for me to think about is whether a mafia would consider that a large enough jump that it would look too supicious to unvote. At 55% of the total amount to lock in the lynch, 62.5% of the votes cast up to that point and placing Hey only one vote away from being locked in, there's certainly a strong case for it to be too large a jump.

But in short, while being involved in lynching a mafioso is commendable, in this case I don't think that being the second voter for Hey and not wavering is enough to exonerate you. It's just not a strong enough position to automatically make you a townie.

Please note that I'm not assuming you to be a mafia or a townie in this post, it's the approach I'll always take when considering a player. Considering the probability of a player making such actions whilst (temporarily) making an assumption on their alignment. Then considering how likely each alignment is against the other.

At the moment it feels like your probability of being mafia is still significant and isn't yet small enough for me to disregard it. The same can be said for your probability of being townie. However in my experience of this game it's generally better to be cautious in these matters which skews it towards being more paranoid.

Is this a detailed enough answer to your question? (How come you still seem suspicious when you were one of the first to vote for Hey)

 

[Soylentred]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

So the fact that I voted for him and stuck equals the same as any other action I could have taken. In otherwords it is totally subjective to how you want it to read.
Counting my posts or how much time went before I could have come an unvoted is ridiculous again - I could have been having a bad bout of diarrhea for all you know.
It all measures down to how you want to read it and nothing more - and that is your reading not anyone elses which is why your chart is flawed.
You take your subjective views and try to pass then off as objective by drawing square lines around them - neat trick.
And me getting myself incarcerated being my fault or pointing blame to me somehow?
First why not make that same accusation against Aman?
Second why would I have Hey inprison me and then try to get him lynched?

Your logic on all points is seriously flawed.

 

[Nolecub]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Aman, any ideas on why you are still alive? Seems weird for the mafia to allow you to live this long.

SiTro, corrected the caps that time. I'm ready to dance when you are.

For today's vote, I'm going back to my day 1 instincts:

Vote: ogogo on ice

 

[Erwwwd]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I'm not going to be able to post a lot today, maybe not at all as my monday's and tuesdays are packed well into the evening. This may present a problem, I will at least try and scan over this thread tonight and adjust my vote if it is needed. I need to vote on someone, and currently highest on my list is jaago for trying to turn around his own bad voting record against me. I'll stick with this for now, and see what happens

Vote:Jaago

 

[Erwwwd]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

And thanks for correcting me friedbanananaaaaaazzz, it's a J. Hope you all got my hidden secret covert message out of that.

 

[Jaago]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

currently highest on my list is jaago for trying to turn around his own bad voting record against me.

But I can't be suspicious of myself, now can I? And you're getting that nervous for someone just suspecting you? Got something to hide?

@ aman: It might be better if noammr would sleep at home tonight.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

So the fact that I voted for him and stuck equals the same as any other action I could have taken. In otherwords it is totally subjective to how you want it to read.
Counting my posts or how much time went before I could have come an unvoted is ridiculous again - I could have been having a bad bout of diarrhea for all you know.
It all measures down to how you want to read it and nothing more - and that is your reading not anyone elses which is why your chart is flawed.
You take your subjective views and try to pass then off as objective by drawing square lines around them - neat trick.
And me getting myself incarcerated being my fault or pointing blame to me somehow?
First why not make that same accusation against Aman?
Second why would I have Hey inprison me and then try to get him lynched?

Your logic on all points is seriously flawed.

I almost posted another reply about this. But to be fair we're running in circles here:

• I see some of your behaviour as suspicious and flag it up as such.
• You respond to that and ask me to explain why that's suspicious.
• I explain my reasoning behind my comments.
• You make a list of points about mistakes I've apparently made and repeatedly accuse my logic of being faulty.
• I defend the logic I've used and add in more reasoning supporting my claims.
• You keep up the faulty logic defense.
• Da Capo ad infinitum.

I suggest we leave it at this for now, especially since these posts are beginning to become peppered with personal insults now. My last words will be to answer your questions. Briefly, so you see only the answer and no further.

1. Aman has served his time. Fairly soon he will post at night and be modkilled. There's no point in trying to get the town to waste a lynch on him.
2. I don't know.

Good luck trying to root out the mafia in this town, I wish you all the best.

Regards,

SiTro.

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

My 2 cents
No one has deep dived into Hey's posts at this point... I will remind the team he was proven mafia support and as such you should reread his posts and look at who he voted for and why he said so as well is the "back and forth" chatter.
Reading this post again brings up lots of clues. Particularly since the majority of his posts were 1 liners. I am going to assume since his lack of motivation to bring a defense for himself is applicable in this post as well. What I imply is, Hey didn't want to take the time to obfuscate here so it is unlike he wanted to else where as well. So I assume Hey make minimal effort in this post to hide in double talk.
Read this again I assume that since the crocked agent was mafia that Hey knew who was and was not mafia and could vote in night kills.
232-238 Exchange between him and Aman and from the previous post I conclude here that based on this quote…

I agree Ankeli wasn't a mafia, even though we don't know for sure. If he was a mafia, why would the mafia NK one of their own? Makes no sense to me. You may know it's not you, but we don't.
Our town has been infested by mafia, I doubt anyone will be passing off a person right away as a Townie, unless that person is the Cop.

1.)Aman is more than likely pro town
2.) Hey was surprised that Ankeli was killed instead of the target the mafia agreed to
3.) Since the mafia did not know they were going to be role blocked Hey targeted Ankeli for night 3 but when the switch happened resulted in target not found thus no lock up for the day.
4.) I suppose Hey references here to Aman's reasoning as confirmation of what happened when there was no third day prison

5.) I'm going to also assume here that based on this quote

I agree with SiTro on the matter of Soy, seems to be quite a bit of irrelevant postings.
Vote: Soy
For now.

That Soy is more than likely pro town as well. Hey did not lead me to believe that he would be complex to vote for another mafia member early as Sitro Suggested. However on the same point I would assume it would be more likely that we would partner up with a fellow member early. Hey did unvote later to go to Serdash

So, keeping with my post 201 I was right on Hey & wrong on Orphan. Lets see if I can keep batting .500. His post 327 is interesting to me
Vote Jaggo

 

[Soylentred]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

My 2 cents

That Soy is more than likely pro town as well. Hey did not lead me to believe that he would be complex to vote for another mafia member early as Sitro Suggested. However on the same point I would assume it would be more likely that we would partner up with a fellow member early. Hey did unvote later to go to Serdash

So, keeping with my post 201 I was right on Hey & wrong on Orphan. Lets see if I can keep batting .500. His post 327 is interesting to me
Vote Jaggo

Thank you - we still have not had a proper answer as to why I am so suspicious when I was the second person to vote Hey.

I find it mighty suspicous how hard Sitro is working to twist his logic and charts against me, the fact that he and Hey threw in together to vote me is also suspicious. I am holding off voting for Sitro but if anyone else wants to go that way let me know.

Aman's response to Jaago in post 278 I found telling asking Jaago are you going to kill me tonight?
Jaago's subsequent threat that Noammr should stay home....

Vote Jaago

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I don't think Jaago's response was a threat.
I think you need some fresh analysis MassiveSin.

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Wait

Why are you voting for Jaago, Soylentred?

I find it mighty suspicous how hard Sitro is working to twist his logic and charts against me

He's not trying that hard, i can tell.

Aman has served his time. Fairly soon he will post at night and be modkilled. There's no point in trying to get the town to waste a lynch on him.

Suggesting i mod kill myself to prove im pro town?

You just got yourself 2 mafia points.

I do believe lynching Jaago would be a mistake, but i won't defend him i'll let him do that. Course i haven't been wrong yet and will change my vote.

unvote
Vote: MassiveSin

Why?

He's talking about the FBI thing after Ray posted the roles and that annoys me, also i don't want Jaago to die.

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

This should have been in my last post.

Fairly soon he will post at night and be modkilled

There will be no repeat, i will take his crown and be the best ever!!


People need to start placing votes, i don't want to see a no lynch.

 

[Soylentred]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Wait

Why are you voting for Jaago, Soylentred?



He's not trying that hard, i can tell.



Suggesting i mod kill myself to prove im pro town?

You just got yourself 2 mafia points.

I do believe lynching Jaago would be a mistake, but i won't defend him i'll let him do that. Course i haven't been wrong yet and will change my vote.

unvote
Vote: MassiveSin

Why?

He's talking about the FBI thing after Ray posted the roles and that annoys me, also i don't want Jaago to die.

Jaago has made some cryptic comments that sound threatening and I would like him to explain.
I am open to going another way depending on what Jaago says.

 

[SiTro]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Translation: I don't understand what Jaago said, so am assuming it's a threat.
However if he votes for SiTro, I will follow suit.

 

[Jaago]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

My comment about Noammr wasn't a threat, it was a suggestion, and not directed to Noammr himself. If it is cryptic to you, you're not reading into very much depth. Aman is playing a strong game and I trust him for now, but I don't think Massive is anyone we need to lynch.

I would lynch bob instead, but I might be easily convinced to other directions.

Vote: BobTheWarrior

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

I don't think Jaago's response was a threat.
I think you need some fresh analysis MassiveSin.

I said it was interesting, it's quite a blunt statement. I am thinking about it, what have you concluded Sitro?

unvote
Vote: MassiveSin

Why?

He's talking about the FBI thing after Ray posted the roles and that annoys me, also i don't want Jaago to die.

@Aman It may be annoying to know for you, but I think it is important for people to review the posts of found mafia members and search for clues. Obviously you do review the post so it thier is no new information for you to gain. Not so for the others, with the amount of non contributors looking for summarries. I think its needed to balance out the conversation and remind them make thier own decision. So please give a little more detail about why you don't want Jaago to die.

 

[Aman]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Because i believe he is pro town, the more i thought about what he said last night the more i see he had the towns interest in mind.

Yes looking at Hey's post is a good way to look for mafia but it's still early in the game and still too hard to draw any solid evidence.



Also he doesn't have many mafia ponts

 

[Noammr]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

First of all, thanks to Aman for answering my questions in a satisfactory manner. Good enough for me to trust you unless I find a reason not to.

SiTro, I did in fact misread that 'voice of reason' post of yours (doh!). However, I had a whole paragraph about your table and how it doesn't actually give supporting arguments to accusations but I dropped it because it was boring. Let's just say I bashed the table because the table needed bashing but have since decided that it's a minor issue and might as well stay (at least it's amusing aman).

As to the vote...I'll have to read up on things before I decide where I stand. Current vote count is:

Jaggo - 3 (Soy, MassiveSin, Erwwwd)
MassiveSin - 2 (Aman,SiTro)
Bob - 1 (Jaggo)
ogogo on ice - 1 (Nolecub)

One question; why massive? Aren't we better off lynching one of the less contributing members?
I don't find Jaggo's post threatning at all but I do think his avatar is creepy so I'll have to read back on his earlier posts.

I'm a bit sick so if I find later on that I can't stand to spend too much time in front of the screen I might hit the sack without posting. Either way, I have tomorrow monring clear so I can go through it all then if I don't manage to do it tonight.

 

[MassiveSin]

Re: Mafia: The Gangland Massacre

Yes looking at Hey's post is a good way to look for mafia but it's still early in the game and still too hard to draw any solid evidence.
Also he doesn't have many mafia ponts

Re-Read Jaggo's posts now again and his most recent against my other personal notes
Unvote Jaggo

Noleclub & Bob are silently suspcious to me but as I don't think SOLID clues are every available unless its liked to their role like say a mafia bomber...
Anyways... *Whips out the dective glass & examines Noleclub, Sitro, & Bob again*