The righ % for pits, this needs to be answered

[frederikdnd2]

The righ % for pits, this needs to be answered

heya peeps,

Since in the ULTIMATE guide of the pits (good job btw ), is written that in the example when using a 100% mf+ the normal 100% mf, u get a chance of 183% on sets, if u have (as used as an exmaple) 5% chance to get the IK armor in a set normally, added this 183% of 5, then done +5 i believe it would come out on 14,5 % chance to find this item in the set form, THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE!!!
But is it then not true that with all those RIGHT %'s whe can calculate the odds of finding a set, unique or rare with each % of mf, but then we would first need the random amount of items that pops...or am i TOTALLY mistaken?? :xears:

 

[m0nk]

Not really, because it's too random. There are too many item classes and some monsters, even mlvl85, can't drop certain classes. It would be impossible to gauge that. So, all we can do is figure out the % and understand what happens when that high TC item does finally drop. The Pit is just one of many places that can drop those high TC items.

When you kill a monster the following happens:

Rolls for item class and then item within that class --> rolls unique mf % If failed ---> rolls set MF% If failed ---> rolls rare MF% If failed ---> rolls magical MF% If failed ---> rolls item quality and drops the item.

Not every item in the game follows this path since some item classes have no Unique elite counterpart or another example is potions.

I think this is correct, if I am wrong please tell me.

 

[frederikdnd2]

hmmm, guess ur right...

But cant we at least guess at the %??I mean since with an amount of around 450% mf i've been doing like 20 runs today and not one set/unique dropped, i guess this % has to be REALLY low, and if this IS really low then i wonder if the pit's arnt that gold-mine like we tought it was...

 

[m0nk]

Maybe I misunderstood you. Are you asking if there is some way to figure out how many times a certain item drops before calculating the chance of it being unique? Or are you asking for the true % or chance that an item could be unique?

The Pits are not a gold mine. They take patience and allot of runs. But they do pay off.

 

[m0nk]

www.d2data.net is a good source to help you find out actual %s of finding items.

Go here and scroll down to IK armor http://www.d2data.net/item/set_bodyarmor.html

It has its stats and you can see that it is tc87 item which is really rare. On the right you see who can drop it.

Next go here http://www.d2data.net/tc/armo87.html which I got to by clicking on the armo87 link.

This is a full list of who can drop IK armor and the chance of it to actually drop.

I haven't really used this site too much, just as something to look at to gauge certain items rarity. But, I think it works off of base MF. You can probably calculate your true set MF% into Drop Chance % to find out just how often a monster can drop Sacred amor and have it be Set IK armor.

Anyone have the MF nerf chart handy to figure out true set MF%? It eludes me...

 

[festers50]

Luck is also a major factor.

There is no area where all the choice goodies are gonna drop all day long every day, some days it seems like there is no such thing as mf

The set sacred armor can fall in the pit but I"ve only gotten one so far.

 

[frederikdnd2]

thanks monk!!this figures a lot out!!And you give me some more to read, WOOHOO!! But as you said im actually kinda curious to both...

 

[frederikdnd2]

Pindleskin [TC] Hell 0.26830190

this means the odds of getting an IK armor out of, as in an example pindle, wich here is 0.26830190.
this means that if done 1000 runs of pindle, you should get 2xIk armor, i dont think that really pays of cous doing a 1000 pindle runs gets boring and is not a nice run i think.

Hell Bovine [TC] Hell 0.00252767


this means the odds of getting an IK armor out of, as in an example a Hell Bovine, wich here is 0.00252767.
this means that if done 100.000 Hell Bovines killed, you should 2xIk armor, i guess this does pay of!!

With this information i think it is calculatable how many pit runs you will need to get an IK armor, since if you play some pit runs it cant be too hard to count all of them Hell Bovine's in the pits, do this for around a 30 runs and then we should get a nice number...Maybe then we can calculate the amount of runs we will need to do...

Is this getting interesting??

 

[frederikdnd2]

but then yet we arnt sure it is an IK armor, since it could be also:
armo87:
Sacred Armor,Colossus Girdle,Ogre Gauntlets,Myrmidon Boots,Corona,Diadem,Guardian Crown,Dream Spirit,Vortex Shield,Bloodlord Skull.

Then the odds for the Sacred Armor should be calculated among all of those armors...Damn my math teacher will be happy

 

[frederikdnd2]

You know i have to say that this is a site how should really be use more, if for example we take a necro in mind, and we'd say we want to use a full Trangs set, but can not affor this...how will we find it??then we see that the pits arn't always our best bet, since u can see that for the shield as an example; we better do griswold runs since Griswold [TC] Hell 1.19496137
this should mean that with a lil luck within our 50tiest run we are able to achieve this item....looooking gooood

 

[m0nk]

this means the odds of getting an IK armor out of, as in an example pindle, wich here is 0.26830190.
this means that if done 1000 runs of pindle, you should get 2xIk armor, i dont think that really pays of cous doing a 1000

It's actually 400 runs by that number

but then yet we arnt sure it is an IK armor, since it could be also:
armo87:
Sacred Armor,Colossus Girdle,Ogre Gauntlets,Myrmidon Boots,Corona,Diadem,Guardian Crown,Dream Spirit,Vortex Shield,Bloodlord Skull.

Correct. That takes the 400 number way up there in rarity.

EDIT:

So there are 87 treasure classes. You have a 1 in 87 chance to get TC87. Then, there are 10 items within TC87. So you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting sacred armor. Now after that step is where your MF finally comes into play.

Bad math on that 4000. Sorry. I'm confused at this point as to what the site actually bases these %s on. I will do a bit of research to find out.

 

[frederikdnd2]

hmmm yes it should be 4000, then here we really see that pindle is not worthy running, unless u have some HUGE amount of luck, but then u better start playing the New York lotery aswell

 

[frederikdnd2]

Why do i agree on that 4000...or i'm really stupid but i thought it really was 1000 :xx:

 

[breez]

And then when you are fortunate enough to get the right base item (sacred armor for example) follows the slim chances for getting it uniq, set, rare, magic... There's no point in running one odd monster for a specific item since it can be dropped by some more popular monster which gives other stuff too and you can then trade for the item you want if it doesn't drops and... oh

 

[Shade]

So there are 87 treasure classes. You have a 1 in 87 chance to get TC87. Then, there are 10 items within TC87. So you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting sacred armor. Now after that step is where your MF finally comes into play.

Bad math on that 4000. Sorry. I'm confused at this point as to what the site actually bases these %s on. I will do a bit of research to find out.

There are only 29 Treasure Classes, TC3 up to TC 87 in steps of 3. (To be pedantic these are split into weapon and armour classes too...)

Furthermore not all items in a TC group are weighted equally. Class-specific items (other than Claws), staves, wands and sceptres are all 1/3 as likely to drop as normal items. Claws are 2/3 as likely to drop.

The % numbers on d2data are based on the drop information in TreasureClassEX.txt (one of the data files in the MPQs). They're fairly accurate, although some questions have been raised about some of the data - but it is still a good guideline if nothing else.

 

[Jugalator]

Yes, www.d2data.net is a decent resource, but TAKE HEED if you rely on it to output proper drop tables for monsters, or chance for monster X to drop item Y. This data is incorrect for lots of monsters in Hell difficulty, as it doesn't take the special drop rules noticeable in The Pit etc into account.

But for Normal / NM drops it should be right on target as far as I know.

 

[RTB]

IIRC nm drops for normal monsters is screwed at d2data.net too.

All SuperUniques and bosses aren't affected by the area_lvl, so you can trust d2data.net on those drops

 

[Vizier]

And then when you are fortunate enough to get the right base item (sacred armor for example) follows the slim chances for getting it uniq, set, rare, magic...

Maybe a little off-topic but since this was mentioned... I'm "fortunate-ly" seeing at least one sacred armor drop every 15 or so pit runs. Lacquered plates drop about the same rate. You should see the same general statistic for all equivalent aLevel areas. I can't recall seeing one drop from Pindleskin yet.

Back in 1.09, I ran Pindleskin over 1500 times with a 500 mf hybridzon and maybe saw a sacred armor drop once - I would have remembered if it had been at least a rare. That many runs were mind-numbing like other posters have mentioned, but I wanted a GF or a WF that bad! (I never found either). My point here is elite base items drop more often in certain areas for 1.10 so I wouldn't exactly call it "fortunate" like you mentioned. Or maybe I just have more patience than average(?) and end up seeing more of them.

 

[TiggerTheDragon]

Well i found an IK armor after my 3rd pindle run ever, managed to lose it in a muling attempt gone horribly wrong, and have done 100's of pindle runs since and never found another IK armor. I think its more based on luck than anything.

 

[Wolv]

Is D2data.net the only place to look for accurate drops for monsters?

I've read and seen so much mf info, but its still damn confusing. Back in .09 I know Pindle was the run of choice - he could drop anything. Meph was most consistent, but couldn't drop everything. Now in 1.10 Pindle get nerfed - can he still drop everything? Meph?

I've seen lvl designations for items thru mh6.0 - Archon staff from Pit was **, Meph stuff 87, Tal plate 86. W/ those designations one would think Tal plate could drop in meph, and Archon Staff could not.

Bottom line - any accurate links out there for treasure class/monster drops?