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Key Drop Rate

dang79

Member
Feb 18, 2004
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Key Drop Rate

Is it just my luck that is running out?

I have noticed it has been harder to find keys since monday, after the ladder reset.

I have no statistics to back this up, but merely a hunch. I'm putting this out here to see if anybody has felt this same way?

Just now I ran Nihlathak for 2 straight hours and it garnered one measly key.
I do it at the rate of 3 minutes per run.

Just my luck?
 

doodle

Member
Jul 7, 2004
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I noticed the same thing.... then I said screw trying to find the keys this is whack.
 

MauJ

Member
Jun 9, 2005
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UsEast SCL
dang79 said:
Is it just my luck that is running out?

I have noticed it has been harder to find keys since monday, after the ladder reset.

I have no statistics to back this up, but merely a hunch. I'm putting this out here to see if anybody has felt this same way?

Just now I ran Nihlathak for 2 straight hours and it garnered one measly key.
I do it at the rate of 3 minutes per run.

Just my luck?

I can run in under a minute. Only 3 maps can spawn memorize them get a tele character and it's cake.

It never takes me more than 10 minutes to get a key from Nihl. Join public games and run there that way you don't have to worry about r/d's.

It does seem a little bit harder though since monday. But not too bad.
 

Bert

Member
Apr 18, 2005
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Belgium
krischan said:
According to Thrugg, the drop chance for a key is about 1 in 14 - in one-player games, I assume.

Wasn't it 1 on 34?

Anyway, i'm hunting Nihli for 2 evenings now (2 times 1,5 hour) to find that elusive 9th key.

Yesterday (after 3 hours) i finaly found 'em.

Prolly just bad luck but pretty anoying

Now the fun can begin :clap:

Up to my next hellfire charm


Bert
 

dang79

Member
Feb 18, 2004
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Another 2 hours, Necro leveled to 86.... no key.

Is drop rate better in games with more players?
I might just do that pubby game thing.

But the thing is it would suck bad if you tele there and then Mauj beat me to that game.. lol....
 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
Aug 17, 2003
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Bert said:
Wasn't it 1 on 34?
I'm quite sure he said 1 in 14, but I read read about that 1 in 34 chance somewhere. Perhaps it's 1 in 34 per item dropped and the 1 in 14 means all drops together, i.e. 1 in 14 drops contain at least 1 key.
 

Bert

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Apr 18, 2005
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krischan said:
I'm quite sure he said 1 in 14, but I read read about that 1 in 34 chance somewhere. Perhaps it's 1 in 34 per item dropped and the 1 in 14 means all drops together, i.e. 1 in 14 drops contain at least 1 key.

Could you explain this to me? or give me a link, cause i always thought that the chance he dropped a key was 1/34 for every run.

I don't think that it is possible to put a number on every single drop cause nihli (and any other monster for that matter) always drops a different amount of items forgot about no drop here

Bert

EDIT: I read thruggs post and it seems that Nihli has a 1/12 chance of dropping 1 key per run.

Seems a lot to me, but when i read posts from others that they find 1 set of key's in less than an hour, the number will be correct.
 

Kaoru

Member
Jul 31, 2005
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mmmm... i think key of destruction is easiest compared to those 2.

am i right?????
 

krischan

Europe Trade Moderator
Aug 17, 2003
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Bert said:
Could you explain this to me? or give me a link, cause i always thought that the chance he dropped a key was 1/34 for every run.

I don't think that it is possible to put a number on every single drop cause nihli (and any other monster for that matter) always drops a different amount of items forgot about no drop here

To express myself more precisely, I will switch to "statistics forum mode" :)

For each item dropped by the Countess/Summoner/Nihlathak, the chance is 1/34 that it's a key. If no item is dropped, the chance of no item is 1/34, i.e. the probably of getting a key is 0, just as it should be ;)

They drop an average of more than one item, so they have to drop an average of X=2.48 to have a chance of 1-(1-1/34)^X = 1/14 to drop at least one key.

Nihlathak, the Summoner and the Countess might have their own X values each.
 

Bert

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Apr 18, 2005
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Thx Krishan, I got it now :clap:

Nice explanation :thumbsup:


BTW: Where is that button to go into "statistics forum mode"? :lol:
 
Aug 10, 2005
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Kaoru said:
mmmm... i think key of destruction is easiest compared to those 2.

am i right?????
it isn't the easiest, it's just that it's easier to find the place, thus more drops than other keys at, given the same time. keys drop rate now seems like 1:50 :( i've been going through 87 key runs and only found 1 terror key :rant:
 

dang79

Member
Feb 18, 2004
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DaDancingKirby said:
it isn't the easiest, it's just that it's easier to find the place, thus more drops than other keys at, given the same time. keys drop rate now seems like 1:50 :( i've been going through 87 key runs and only found 1 terror key :rant:

I don't even know how many I did today.... I do know I only found 1 destruction and 2 Hate amidst at least 5.5 to 6 hours of solid running nihlathak and running a few summoners when I got too bored.

I have a few questions to bounce off everybody.

1. Does anybody notice that if you carry too many Dest Keys, you seem to not find any more?

2. Does carrying a hellfire affect your key drop rate?

maybe I should ditch my necro's hellfire and test it out.
 

RTB

Member
Jun 21, 2003
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Dimension of Numbers
dang79 said:
1. Does anybody notice that if you carry too many Dest Keys, you seem to not find any more?
Coincedence. You just hit a dry streak, and will be rewarded with lots of keys if you would keep on killing.

2. Does carrying a hellfire affect your key drop rate?
No effect.

Krischan: The odds per Key pick is closer to 1 : 60, and all three can drop up to 5 keys in one drop.
 
Apr 27, 2004
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DaDancingKirby said:
it isn't the easiest, it's just that it's easier to find the place, thus more drops than other keys at, given the same time. keys drop rate now seems like 1:50 :( i've been going through 87 key runs and only found 1 terror key :rant:


Just finished 90 runs (30 countess, 30 summoner, 30 nihla) resulting in
5 terror keys, 2 destruction keys and 2 hate keys (nice easy math: 1 key pr. 10 runs)

I think drop rate are the same :clap:

PS: Stat guys - how many runs is needed for a statistically "proof" that the drop rate on closed is the same as SP?
 

triple_ultima

Member
Jun 23, 2003
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Raistlin_Majere said:
Just finished 90 runs (30 countess, 30 summoner, 30 nihla) resulting in
5 terror keys, 2 destruction keys and 2 hate keys (nice easy math: 1 key pr. 10 runs)

I think drop rate are the same :clap:

PS: Stat guys - how many runs is needed for a statistically "proof" that the drop rate on closed is the same as SP?

To the best of my knowledge, uber tristram is only available on the realms, and thus the keys have a 0% drop rate in Single Player.
 
Apr 27, 2004
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triple_ultima said:
To the best of my knowledge, uber tristram is only available on the realms, and thus the keys have a 0% drop rate in Single Player.

You're 50 % correct :cool:

"Uber" Tristram is not available in SP but the keys DO drop (you can look at them, toss with them, run with them but they dont DO anything :rolleyes: )

The reason I asked is that the drop rate in SP can be found by looking in the game files (I dont know how but its doable). Now, I cant see any reason why it would'nt be the same on the realms but.....
 

triple_ultima

Member
Jun 23, 2003
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Raistlin_Majere said:
You're 50 % correct :cool:

"Uber" Tristram is not available in SP but the keys DO drop (you can look at them, toss with them, run with them but they dont DO anything :rolleyes: )

The reason I asked is that the drop rate in SP can be found by looking in the game files (I dont know how but its doable). Now, I cant see any reason why it would'nt be the same on the realms but.....

I stand corrected. Sorry about that.